August 05, 2017
Technical Picks | August 05, 2017
Markets to consolidate for a while, focus on individual stocks
Sensex (32325) / Nifty (10066)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Monthly chart
In the concluded week, the Nifty traded in a narrow range of
150 points and ended the week with gains of 0.52 percent
over its previous week's close. It was a week with more of a
stock specific momentum while the indices were locked in a
range, which was very much in line with the expectations.
Amongst the sectoral indices, the Nifty Energy index
outperformed the broader indices led by the OMC's as the
index gained
4.20%; whereas, the Nifty Pharma index
continued its underperformance and corrected by another
4.30% in the week.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 30869 / 9557 and 28309 /
Source: Company, Angel Research
8712 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 32076 / 9942 and 30798 /
9532 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
The entire July month pan out well for our markets as we
saw Nifty hitting new highs to enter a five digit club. This was
followed by some consolidation in the week gone by
immediately after the RBI monetary policy. This development
was quite evident as the outcome (25 bps cut in Repo rate)
from the event was very much in-line with the general
consensus.
Now, the much awaited trigger of the policy is gone and
index has already hit record highs with a massive velocity.
Going ahead, if market has to extend this rally, it would look
Source: Company, Angel Research
for some other cues may be on domestic or global front.
But, we continue to mention that the index now needs some
We have been actively participating in stock specific moves
kind of a breather to maintain the sturdy structure of its
and would continue doing so with a proper exit strategy. In
multi-year bull run. If we look at the monthly chart, the index
fact, on Friday, we saw some broad based buying interest in
has finally reached the ‘Upward Sloping Trend Line’ level of
the market; encouraging us to concentrate more on
10060. This coincides with the 100% ‘Price Extension’ of the
individual stocks. For the forthcoming week, we expect this
previous up move from
7893.80. Although, we didn’t
consolidation to continue in a trading range of 200 - 300
participate much in last couple of weeks on the index front,
points. As far as levels are concerned, 10055 - 10150
our sense more or less remains the same that it’s very
would be seen as immediate resistances; whereas, 9980 -
difficult to catch a precise top/ exit point and hence, in such
9944 would be the levels to watch out for on the downside.
kind of extended rallies, it’s always a prudent strategy to
keep booking profits in advance. May be, this tide has not
yet turned, it’s hard to say; but, there is no harm in
liquidating your positions in advance in order to avoid any
kind of surprises.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | August 05, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
31,795
32,060
32,373
32,639
32,952
NIFTY
9,915
9,991
10,064
10,140
10,214
NIFTY BANK
24,266
24,547
24,873
25,154
25,480
ACC
1,663
1,738
1,788
1,863
1,912
ADANIPORTS
384
396
405
416
425
AMBUJACEM
251
264
271
284
291
ASIANPAINT
1,113
1,135
1,149
1,172
1,186
AUROPHARMA
696
711
730
744
763
AXISBANK
493
500
512
520
532
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,738
2,806
2,853
2,921
2,968
BANKBARODA
148
153
161
167
174
BPCL
447
483
504
539
561
BHARTIARTL
404
412
419
427
434
INFRATEL
390
398
404
412
417
BOSCHLTD
22,994
23,777
24,479
25,262
25,963
CIPLA
530
550
562
581
594
COALINDIA
232
241
247
256
262
DRREDDY
2,081
2,160
2,309
2,388
2,537
EICHERMOT
27,996
29,817
30,871
32,692
33,746
GAIL
359
369
377
386
395
HCLTECH
861
876
886
901
911
HDFCBANK
1,746
1,768
1,789
1,811
1,832
HDFC
1,672
1,702
1,751
1,781
1,830
HEROMOTOCO
3,483
3,720
3,842
4,079
4,201
HINDALCO
210
218
223
231
237
HINDUNILVR
1,123
1,157
1,177
1,212
1,231
IBULHSGFIN
1,109
1,161
1,196
1,248
1,282
ICICIBANK
286
291
299
304
311
IOC
343
381
404
442
465
INDUSINDBK
1,594
1,629
1,652
1,687
1,709
INFY
948
966
994
1,012
1,039
ITC
273
277
284
287
294
KOTAKBANK
962
979
1,005
1,022
1,049
LT
1,144
1,160
1,184
1,200
1,224
LUPIN
888
941
1,015
1,067
1,142
M&M
1,357
1,388
1,411
1,441
1,464
MARUTI
7,511
7,641
7,780
7,910
8,049
NTPC
156
167
173
183
189
ONGC
159
163
167
170
174
POWERGRID
210
218
222
229
233
RELIANCE
1,553
1,587
1,626
1,661
1,700
SBIN
289
297
306
314
323
SUNPHARMA
457
481
518
543
579
TCS
2,438
2,480
2,504
2,547
2,571
TATAMTRDVR
246
250
258
262
270
TATAMOTORS
416
426
439
449
462
TATAPOWER
77
79
81
83
85
TATASTEEL
542
559
570
587
598
TECHM
366
388
401
422
435
ULTRACEMCO
3,936
4,009
4,074
4,146
4,211
VEDANTA
270
280
285
294
299
WIPRO
281
285
292
296
302
YESBANK
1,715
1,762
1,810
1,856
1,904
ZEEL
531
537
544
549
556
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
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Derivatives Review | August 05, 2017
Data remains ambiguous for index, prefer stock centric approach
Nifty spot closed at 10066.40 this week, against a close of 10014.50 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.22 to
1.27 levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.66%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 12.35%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 42.15
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 27.75 points to its spot. Next
INFIBEAM
3892000
129.16
1425.30
8.58
month future is trading with a premium of 75.85 points.
TORNTPOWER
7329000
109.16
189.35
3.10
PCR-OI has increased from 1.22 to 1.27 levels on WoW basis.
CHENNPETRO
2740500
93.54
387.20
5.78
In call option, except for some open interest addition in 10300
strike, we hardly saw any relevant activity. On the flip side,
INFRATEL
9443500
85.85
407.70
0.87
good amount of positions were formed in 9900-10100 put
CUMMINSIND
642600
85.29
942.55
(5.39)
options. Highest open interest in August series is placed at
GODREJCP
2229600
75.61
964.45
(8.58)
10500 call and 10000 put option.
TITAN
5541000
70.70
613.25
14.33
Stock that added longs last week are TITAN, INFIBEAM,
BALRAMCHIN, EICHERMOT and M& VOLTAS. While, fresh
MARICO
4534400
60.44
326.30
(2.25)
shorts were visible in HDIL, DRREDDY, GODREJCP,
SUNPHARMA and JUSTDIAL. Liquid counters with higher CoC
are SUZLON, TORNTPOWER, WOCKPHARMA, GMRINFRA
Weekly OI losers
and NIITTECH. Stocks with negative CoC are MRPL,
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
CHENNPETRO, INDIGO, KPIT and TATAPOWER.
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
HEXAWARE
2628000
(35.35)
251.20
(4.14)
From the beginning of August series, FIIs have been shorting
index futures along with long formation in index put options.
SIEMENS
547000
(18.36)
1368.55
(5.71)
As a result, their index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ dropped to
JSWENERGY
64906000
(16.78)
68.50
(5.78)
65% from 84%. However, rollovers figure of August series
suggests they rolled majority of their long positions in index
L&TFH
16479000
(16.01)
174.45
2.56
futures. Thus, the above data is not giving any clear indication.
PIDILITIND
1226000
(15.39)
804.95
2.49
At current juncture, Hence, until we don't see meaningful
MRPL
9063000
(10.88)
124.50
4.40
unwinding to their longs in index futures by stronger hands,
traders are advised to avoid direction trade in index and
CESC
6471300
(10.24)
971.45
3.54
prefer stock specific approach.
FEDERALBNK
76725000
(9.88)
114.65
0.00
Weekly change in OI
25,000
Call
Put
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
(5,000)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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