1
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| March 05, 2021
Nifty ends below 15000 amid volatile swings
Sensex (50405) / Nifty (14938)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Market had a surprising gap down on previous Friday which was followed by extended sell off throughout the day to drag the Nifty
towards 14500. The way it closed along with sharp uptick in ‘Volatility Index (VIX)’, some decent correction was on cards. But again
to surprise everyone, markets had a gap up opening on Monday which was then followed by a v-shaped recovery for the three
consecutive sessions. In the process, Nifty even managed to surpass the 15200 mark; however, market was not done with its twist
yet. Globally, markets had some jittery moves which had a rub off effect on our bourses as well. In last couple of sessions, we
witnessed some correction to end the week with nearly three percent gains but trimmed some portion to close below 15000.
It was a difficult week for momentum traders because the moment markets tried to decide its direction; we tend to have some
surprises. Although, we did manage to recover well from previous Friday’s level, market left us with some doubts. As far as levels are
concerned, 15100 and 15273 are to be seen as immediate hurdles; whereas on the lower side, 14760 14467 are to be seen as key
supports. If we take a glance at the weekly chart, we are still unsure whether market has enough strength to go beyond recent highs
around 15400 15550 without seeing any decent price or time wise correction. But at the same time, they are just refusing to fall as
well. Hence, it would be interesting to see how markets behave in the first half of the forthcoming week. It should then ideally give
us some fair idea where markets are heading in the short term. Traders are advised to focus on stock specific moves but should
ideally avoid aggressive leveraged positions overnight.
Sectorally, lot of themes did extremely well for the major part of the week. But some of the pockets did cool off towards the end and
‘NIFTY MIDCAP 50’ was clearly one of them after registering record highs. Globally, commodities saw some decent correction and
hence, it would be interesting to see how this theme play out as well. Very importantly, the financial space is placed at a crucial level
and any weakness from hereon would lead to short term breakdown in this pocket as well.
2
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| March 05, 2021
FIIs turned net sellers in F&O space
Nifty spot closed at 14938.10 this week, against a close of 14529.15 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.93 to 1.12.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 1.74%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has increased by 21.35%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 14.95 points against a premium of 27.20 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading at a premium of 94.95 points.
In options segment, the fresh build-up was seen 14900-15500 call options. On the other side, 14500-15000 puts added good amount
of positions. Maximum open interest for the weekly series is placed at 15500 call and 14500 put options.
Post previous Friday’s sharp sell-off, we began new week with an upside gap tad above 14700 mark. As the week progressed, index
inched higher to breach previous high of 15176.50 and eventually surpassed the hurdle around 15200-15250 on Wednesday. On
account of global sell-off, we saw some rub-off effect in our market as well and hence, index slipped below 14900. Eventually, we
concluded the week with the gains of almost 3%. In F&O space, both Nifty as well as BankNifty added huge open interest and we
believe majority of the positions formed are on short side. Stronger hands too preferred adding shorts in index futures segment,
resulting Long Short Ratio declining to 56% from 61% WoW. At current juncture, 15000-15100 shall act as a strong hurdle; whereas,
immediate support is placed around 14800 mark.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
APOLLOHOSP 1715500 26.51 2893.45 (5.58)
JINDALSTEL
25940000
20.32
324.75
(3.72)
ASHOKLEY
40815000
16.22
126.85
(1.86)
BANKBARODA
12
6991800
14.51
81.65
(1.92)
COALINDIA
46498200
13.44
146.80
(1.51)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
CUMMINSIND 1740000 37.70 842.55 6.75
WIPRO
38860800
25.84
421.00
2.26
ZEEL
43200000
21.68
218.85
8.50
IDFCFIRSTB
170905000
20.45
65.95
5.18
SUNTV
13438500
19.69
507.25
2.64
3
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| March 05, 2021
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
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Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jai[email protected]com
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Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]gelbroking.com