Technical and Derivatives Review | May 04, 2019
No major movement in the truncated week, 11700 defended successfully
Sensex (38963) / Nifty (11712)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
After an extended weekend, our markets had a sluggish opening on Tuesday as there was no major trigger on the domestic as well as global
front. Yes, Brent crude cooled off a bit; but our markets had already discounted it while closing on previous Friday. During the initial hour,
all of a sudden, index took a nosedive and in the process, we once again slipped below the key support of 11700. Fortunately for us, quite
similar to earlier session, we had a good upsurge during the penultimate hour, which pulled the index back into the relatively safer
territory. This was followed by two back to back muted sessions to conclude the truncated week tad above the 11700 mark.
It’s been yet another week of consolidation for our markets, in fact the overall intra-week range shrunk drastically due to less number of
sessions. Honestly speaking, there is nothing much to comment on considering the muted price action. The only notable observation that
can be highlighted is the formation of a ‘Triangle’ pattern on hourly chart. Hence, going ahead, 11790 - 11655 are the levels to watch out
for. A decisive move in either direction would confirm a breakout and thereby would provide an immediate path of action for the market
participants.
At present, the ideal strategy would be to keep focusing on individual pockets that were buzzing during the week. We are heading towards
the mega event (Election Verdict slated on May 23) and hence, a possibility of rise in volatility cannot be ruled out. One needs to keep this
thing in mind and should position accordingly from henceforth till the actual event day.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical and Derivatives Review | May 04, 2019
11650-11700 to act as a sheet anchor
Nifty spot closed at 11712.25 this week, against a close of 11754.65 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.63 to 1.49.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 6.01%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 3.16.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 52.05 points against a premium of 58.85 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 94.60 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, some fresh build-up was seen in 12200-12300 call options. On the other
side, 11700-11800 put options added some fresh OI. Maximum open interest for monthly May series now stands at 12000 call and
11000 put options.
In the truncated week, we hardly saw any major price action as index traded in a range of merely 150 points. Decent unwinding was
seen in both Nifty as well as BankNifty. However, good amount of longs rolled in May series are still intact in the system. At present,
11650-11700 has acted as a very strong support for the market; whereas, 11800 is an immediate hurdle. In the weekly series,
highest open interest is placed at 11700 puts and we have been witnessing fresh writing in the same strike in last couple of sessions.
Hence, we would advise traders to trade with a positive bias and use declines to re-enter.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
PVR
817200
22.41
1788.75
4.51
JETAIRWAYS
5915800
21.84
102.20
(26.47)
CANFINHOME
3857400
10.35
335.10
3.06
YESBANK
135960950
11.67
177.05
(25.83)
AJANTPHARM
818000
24.32
1057.30
2.96
RPOWER
111472000
30.35
6.55
(11.49)
BHARTIARTL
39861285
12.21
333.70
2.50
PCJEWELLER
9574500
15.26
109.15
(11.44)
IDEA
551687416
4.84
15.75
1.94
BIOCON
8255700
40.43
555.60
(11.05)
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
2
Technical and Derivatives Review | May 04, 2019
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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