Technical Picks | February 4, 2017
Markets are unlikely to see major correction soon, use dips to buy
Sensex (28241) / Nifty (8741)
The Nifty index started trading for the week on a flat note
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
and traded in a narrow range in Monday's trading session.
Although the index corrected marginally on Tuesday, the
corrective dip was used as an opportunity by traders to
create long positions, which is usually seen in an uptrend.
Thus, the Nifty opened on a positive note on Wednesday 'the
Budget Day', and rallied higher post noon posting gains of
1.81% and closed beyond 8700 for the first time since
October 24, 2016. The last two trading sessions of the week
too witnessed trading with a positive bias amid broad
market participation and in the process, the Nifty index
gained 1.15 percent during the week.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27126
/
8367 and
26576 / 8135 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27491
/
8498 and
27184 / 8386 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Most of the major events have past and it seems that after
undergoing lot of ups and downs in the last eleven months,
the market is in a comfortable position to provide good
returns in future months. Our markets bottomed out on last
year's budget day and this time we hope to see new highs,
Source: Company, Angel Research
post this important event.
The immediate level on the upside would now be seen at
Now, at this juncture, as far price structure is concerned, we
8807-8893; whereas on the flipside, immediate support is
have been anticipating probable 'Cup and Handle' pattern
placed at 8672-8650. With a directional view, the base has
after forming a strong base in the vicinity of 7900-8100
been shifted higher and we don't expect the index to slip
level. It seems that the process of completing this pattern is
below 8537 for quite some time. Traders are repeatedly
going well and we are inch away from the completion
advised to keep following individual stocks to form positional
around the 9000 mark. Now for the coming week, we
trades on the long side.
expect some consolidation in the market considering couple
of 'Narrow Range' bodies on daily chart preciously at 78.6%
retracement of the entire down move from 8968 to 7893.
However, we maintain our optimistic stance in the market
with a directional view and expect much higher levels quite
soon.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | February 4, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,334
27,787
28,044
28,497
28,753
NIFTY
8,459
8,600
8,679
8,820
8,899
NIFTY BANK
19,160
19,678
19,954
20,472
20,748
ACC
1,366
1,395
1,435
1,465
1,505
ADANIPORTS
284
294
302
312
321
AMBUJACEM
220
225
231
235
241
ASIANPAINT
945
966
983
1,004
1,021
AUROPHARMA
627
656
685
714
743
AXISBANK
449
470
481
502
514
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,709
2,758
2,839
2,888
2,969
BANKBARODA
156
171
179
194
202
BHEL
133
138
140
145
148
BPCL
655
677
695
717
735
BHARTIARTL
301
327
349
375
396
INFRATEL
240
270
313
343
386
BOSCH
20,900
21,660
22,830
23,590
24,760
CIPLA
550
579
595
624
640
COALINDIA
295
310
319
334
343
DRREDDY
2,868
3,006
3,083
3,221
3,297
EICHERMOT
21,369
22,377
23,414
24,422
25,458
GAIL
444
461
473
490
501
GRASIM
853
899
952
998
1,051
HCLTECH
758
794
815
852
873
HDFCBANK
1,262
1,287
1,301
1,326
1,340
HDFC
1,325
1,361
1,389
1,426
1,454
HEROMOTOCO
3,069
3,141
3,223
3,296
3,377
HINDALCO
179
186
193
199
206
HINDUNILVR
823
836
852
865
881
ICICIBANK
253
267
277
292
302
IDEA
63
86
103
126
142
INDUSINDBK
1,201
1,252
1,284
1,335
1,366
INFY
884
910
931
957
978
ITC
244
258
269
284
294
KOTAKBANK
714
740
765
790
816
LT
1,400
1,440
1,468
1,508
1,535
LUPIN
1,405
1,448
1,479
1,523
1,554
M&M
1,186
1,223
1,265
1,303
1,345
MARUTI
5,727
5,921
6,070
6,264
6,413
NTPC
164
168
173
177
182
ONGC
192
196
204
209
216
POWERGRID
196
199
204
207
212
RELIANCE
1,008
1,021
1,037
1,050
1,066
SBIN
253
265
272
284
291
SUNPHARMA
604
625
640
662
677
TCS
2,047
2,140
2,246
2,339
2,445
TATAMTRDVR
320
327
336
343
353
TATAMOTORS
502
512
528
539
555
TATAPOWER
77
79
81
83
85
TATASTEEL
447
460
470
483
494
TECHM
404
442
464
502
523
ULTRACEMCO
3,587
3,662
3,731
3,807
3,876
WIPRO
433
445
456
468
478
YESBANK
1,361
1,380
1,399
1,418
1,437
ZEEL
472
484
499
511
526
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | February 4, 2017
Option data indicating support at 8500-8550, stay long
Nifty spot closed at 8740.95 this week, against a close of 8641.25 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.99 to 1.08
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.80%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 11.94%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 13.40
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 29.85 points to its spot. Next
INFRATEL
9600000
68.73
300.50
(15.65)
month future is trading with a premium of 39.55 points.
TORNTPHARM
349200
64.41
1310.55
0.82
PCR-OI has increased from 0.99 to 1.08 levels mainly due to
OFSS
269400
42.99
3634.50
7.99
fresh build-up in put options. In call option, 8800 - 9100
strikes were quite active; from which
9000 strike added
JPASSOCIAT
179588000
41.31
13.10
23.58
maximum positions. While in put options, we saw significant
CUMMINSIND
699000
41.04
890.50
4.87
build-up in 8500 - 8700 strikes. Highest OI in current series
INDUSINDBK
6282000
35.41
1306.95
3.59
has shifted from 8400 to 8500 put option; while it remains
intact at 9000 call option.
NIITTECH
820500
34.40
426.10
(1.24)
MINDTREE
3376800
33.49
461.75
(2.93)
Stock that added longs last week are UNIONBANK,
BANKINDIA, GODREJIND, GRANULES and PNB. While, fresh
shorts were visible in INFRATEL, JETAIRWAYS, TCS, MRF and
IDFC. Liquid counters with higher CoC are MARUTI, CIPLA,
Weekly OI losers
SUNPHARMA, LUPIN and ZEEL. Stocks with negative CoC are
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
UNIONBANK, IOC, RECLTD, OIL and HINDPETRO.
IBREALEST
31070000
(20.19)
80.20
1.33
Last week, Nifty rallied by around
100 points and we
PIDILITIND
1039000
(20.14)
676.35
(0.07)
witnessed long build-up in that up move. But, surprisingly, FIIs
had formed mixed positions in last week; wherein, short
BIOCON
2443200
(17.40)
1059.10
3.29
positions are more than long ones. However, their longs
IDEA
91070000
(16.71)
109.00
42.20
formed in preceding weeks are still intact. Also, index option
JINDALSTEL
45135000
(15.80)
91.40
14.54
data indicates strong support in Nifty around 8500-8550
levels. Until we see meaningful change in derivative data, we
AJANTPHARM
538400
(13.11)
1732.75
(0.21)
continue to maintain our bullish stance on index. Thus, we
CROMPGREAV
16308000
(10.30)
68.00
0.67
advise traders to trade with positive bias and use declines as a
buying opportunity.
BAJFINANCE
5397000
(10.19)
1051.05
5.11
Weekly change in OI
40,000
Call
Put
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
(5,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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