Technical Picks | December 3, 2016
Stay optimistic, despite some tail end pressure
Sensex (26231) / Nifty (8087)
The trading for the week started with a positive momentum
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
on Monday and the optimism continued for the next two
trading sessions, which clearly indicated the impact of the
'Dragonfly Doji' candlestick pattern formed during the
previous week. On Thursday, the Nifty index opened near
the resistance of 8250 and corrected thereon throughout the
session. Unexpectedly, the Nifty opened with a gap down
opening on Friday, which led to a continuation of the
previous session's negativity. The initial three trading
sessions’ gains were wiped off in the last two sessions and
the index ended with a marginal loss of 0.33 percent over its
previous week's close.
Key Moving Averages:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27292
/
8417 and
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
26473 / 8090 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
26607
/
8211 and
27228 / 8398 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
We saw a fair bit of action in the concluded week and the
last couple of sessions were slightly tricky to catch for most of
the market participants, including us. The initial part of the
week was an extension of last Friday's upward move and
precisely tested our mentioned level of 8250. However, this
level coincided with the daily '20 EMA', which acted as a stiff
Source: Company, Angel Research
hurdle for the bulls and as a result; we witnessed a decent
Hence, although, this week's high of 8250.80 would be a
corrective move towards the fag end of the week.
daunting task to overcome, we would still expect a possibility
Now as far as weekly chart is concerned, the 'Dragonfly
of extending this to bounce back to 8320 - 8380 level. On
Doji', formed around the 50% retracement (of the entire rally
the flipside, 8055 - 7952 would be seen as an immediate
from February lows) during the previous week, is still intact.
support zone in the forthcoming week. Traders are advised
Hence, as long as the low of 7916.40 level is not violated,
to focus on stock specific actions by following a proper risk
we would like to stay on the optimistic side. In addition, the
management strategy.
‘RSI-Smoothened’ momentum oscillator on daily chart has
now surpassed the 30 mark and is moving in a northward
direction, which we believe would provide an impetus for the
next upward leg of the rally.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | December 3, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
25,808
26,019
26,394
26,606
26,981
NIFTY
7,951
8,019
8,135
8,203
8,319
NIFTY BANK
17,163
17,711
18,712
19,260
20,261
ACC
1,280
1,306
1,330
1,356
1,380
ADANIPORTS
253
259
271
277
288
AMBUJACEM
193
199
206
212
219
ASIANPAINT
855
880
928
953
1,001
AUROPHARMA
692
706
732
746
772
AXISBANK
446
453
465
472
485
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,575
2,644
2,681
2,750
2,787
BANKBARODA
156
158
162
165
168
BHEL
123
125
128
130
134
BPCL
568
589
627
648
685
BHARTIARTL
290
304
315
330
341
INFRATEL
338
361
378
401
418
BOSCH
18,209
19,281
19,971
21,043
21,734
CIPLA
555
563
571
579
588
COALINDIA
295
300
307
312
319
DRREDDY
3,097
3,137
3,192
3,233
3,288
EICHERMOT
18,985
20,917
21,933
23,865
24,881
GAIL
398
415
430
447
462
GRASIM
795
834
858
897
922
HCLTECH
772
782
799
809
826
HDFCBANK
1,160
1,176
1,192
1,207
1,223
HDFC
1,199
1,218
1,252
1,271
1,305
HEROMOTOCO
2,965
3,073
3,152
3,260
3,339
HINDALCO
158
164
173
179
188
HINDUNILVR
811
822
839
849
866
ICICIBANK
246
253
260
267
275
IDEA
66
70
75
79
84
INDUSINDBK
1,013
1,037
1,067
1,091
1,121
INFY
946
955
970
978
993
ITC
222
225
230
233
239
KOTAKBANK
695
710
735
750
775
LT
1,317
1,338
1,370
1,392
1,424
LUPIN
1,444
1,467
1,507
1,530
1,570
M&M
1,104
1,125
1,163
1,184
1,222
MARUTI
4,590
4,821
5,064
5,295
5,539
NTPC
157
159
162
165
168
ONGC
264
278
288
302
312
POWERGRID
175
179
187
192
199
RELIANCE
967
982
998
1,013
1,029
SBIN
241
247
254
261
268
SUNPHARMA
689
706
718
735
747
TCS
2,137
2,184
2,252
2,298
2,366
TATAMTRDVR
276
281
290
295
305
TATAMOTORS
408
420
443
455
478
TATAPOWER
68
71
73
76
78
TATASTEEL
393
400
409
416
425
TECHM
455
465
480
490
505
ULTRACEMCO
3,398
3,485
3,562
3,649
3,727
WIPRO
446
453
462
468
477
YESBANK
1,106
1,130
1,157
1,180
1,208
ZEEL
423
433
449
459
476
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | December 3, 2016
Despite flat closing, FIIs added decent longs in Index Futures
Nifty spot closed at 8086.80 this week, against a close of 8114.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.00 to 1.03
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.22%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 12.26%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 22.10
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 12.05 points to its spot. Next
IDFCBANK
51656000
101.34
66.70
(4.99)
month future is trading with a premium of 57.75 points.
ULTRACEMCO
2634600
63.32
3566.50
2.27
PCR-OI has increased from 1.00 to 1.03 levels. In call option,
BPCL
15103200
43.61
611.15
(4.16)
8200-8300 strikes were active and they also added good
IGL
1553200
43.06
818.60
(2.46)
amount of positions; followed by some unwinding in 8000
OIL
1307300
41.62
428.05
(2.39)
strike. While in put option, we witness huge build-up in
8000 - 8200 strikes. Highest OI in December series is visible
HINDPETRO
23003400
34.24
437.00
(5.15)
in 8300 call and 8000 put options.
PCJEWELLER
1162500
29.38
348.50
2.06
Stock that added longs last week are EICHERMOT, BEL,
TORNTPHARM
288000
29.03
1352.80
(0.98)
ENGINERSIN, ICIL and ONGC. While, fresh shorts were
visible in UNIONBANK, ARVIND, INDIACEM, HINDPETRO
and IDFCBANK. Liquid counters with higher CoC are
Weekly OI losers
HINDALCO, ASIANPAINT, TATAPOWER, AUROPHARMA and
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
HDFCBANK. Stocks with negative CoC are PCJEWELLER,
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
JUSTDIAL, VOLTAS, BATAINDIA and TVSMOTOR.
MARUTI
2296050
(13.64)
5080.25
4.09
DHFL
14730000
(12.85)
243.25
1.88
Last week, we witnessed decent OI addition in Nifty and most
of them are longs. Despite the flat closing on Week-on-Week
GODREJIND
1308000
(12.19)
376.85
1.92
basis, FII added good amount of long positions in both Index
PETRONET
3786000
(11.66)
379.30
1.47
futures and Stock Futures. However, their selling in cash
ADANIPOWER
93280000
(10.08)
29.20
18.46
segment has not yet stopped. Considering above data, we
may further upside in Nifty towards 8300 - 8350 levels. Thus,
NIITTECH
578500
(9.11)
424.85
1.41
we advise traders to trade with positive bias unless we see any
STAR
1417500
(8.78)
1079.55
(0.43)
meaningful change in data.
TATAELXSI
1590300
(7.86)
1315.65
5.87
Weekly change in OI
25,000
Call
Put
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
(5,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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