Technical Picks | September 3, 2016
Market nearing 8850; keep booking longs and await clear cues
Sensex (28532) / Nifty (8810)
The Nifty started the proceedings of the week with a mildly
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
positive bias on Monday, citing mixed cues from the global
bourses. Thereafter, a gap up opening on Tuesday marked
the resumption of the bull run and the Nifty rallied higher to
confirm a breakout beyond its six weeks’ congestion zone.
This optimism continued on Wednesday and in the process,
the index hit a new 52-week surpassing the 8800 mark. The
positive momentum continued in the sessions that followed
with the action being more stock specific in nature.
Eventually, the Nifty ended the week with handsome gains of
2.77% over its previous week's close.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Source: Company, Angel Research
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27185
/
8352 and
26123 / 7953 levels, respectively.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Monthly chart
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
28096
/
8665 and
27148 / 8342 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Finally, after a time-wise pain of nearly a month, the bulls
had something to cheer about. Due to last week’s
spectacular move, the Nifty managed to close above the
psychological level of 8800 as well as at the highest point of
the calendar year 2016. Drawing reference to our earlier
weekly communication, we were not surprised with the up
move seen in the first half of the week; but the velocity at
Source: Company, Angel Research
which it happened was certainly astounding. Our
contradictory view to go long around 8550 (as per the 5th
But we would prefer to reassess the market developments
point confirmation for ‘Bullish Wolfe wave’) played out well
over the next few days and want to wait for clear signals to
because of low risk trade with reasonably higher reward.
emerge for a near term direction. If the Nifty is able to
The Nifty met with the pattern target of 8720 and given the
surpass the 8850 mark, then it may continue to head higher;
strong momentum, it even went on to enter our near term
whereas, on the flipside, a minor profit booking could lead
target zone of 8800 - 8850. Now at this juncture, we see
to some corrective move towards 8720 - 8670 levels. In the
resistance points converging around 8850 along with the
upcoming week (at least in the first half), we expect the index
‘Super Trend’ on the monthly chart placed at 8831. Thus, to
to consolidate a bit and movements in individual stocks
be on the conservative side, we would now advise traders to
would be in focus. Traders are advised to keep a check on
start taking some money off the table although we do not
market developments and all key mentioned levels.
want to sound pessimistic at this point in time since there is
no sign of reversal or weakness.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | September 3, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,388
27,960
28,271
28,843
29,154
NIFTY
8,445
8,628
8,726
8,908
9,006
NIFTY BANK
18,805
19,344
19,636
20,175
20,468
ACC
1,571
1,620
1,673
1,722
1,774
ADANIPORTS
240
254
262
276
284
AMBUJACEM
254
265
274
285
293
ASIANPAINT
1,079
1,123
1,149
1,193
1,218
AUROPHARMA
745
762
784
801
822
AXISBANK
571
585
595
608
618
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,720
2,859
2,948
3,088
3,177
BANKBARODA
154
160
163
170
173
BHEL
130
133
138
141
146
BPCL
563
575
593
605
623
BHARTIARTL
276
298
323
344
369
INFRATEL
325
334
346
355
367
BOSCH
22,880
23,446
24,125
24,691
25,370
CIPLA
552
565
576
589
601
COALINDIA
325
329
334
337
342
DRREDDY
2,972
3,047
3,093
3,169
3,215
EICHERMOT
21,533
22,175
22,802
23,444
24,071
GAIL
368
382
389
403
410
GRASIM
4,386
4,500
4,627
4,740
4,868
HCLTECH
734
759
776
802
819
HDFCBANK
1,213
1,249
1,272
1,308
1,331
HDFC
1,329
1,384
1,413
1,468
1,497
HEROMOTOCO
3,157
3,368
3,491
3,701
3,824
HINDALCO
149
153
159
163
169
HINDUNILVR
889
905
917
933
946
ICICIBANK
237
249
257
269
276
IDEA
72
78
87
93
101
INDUSINDBK
1,128
1,160
1,180
1,212
1,231
INFY
995
1,013
1,030
1,048
1,064
ITC
247
255
259
267
272
KOTAKBANK
760
787
802
829
844
LT
1,382
1,444
1,481
1,542
1,579
LUPIN
1,446
1,482
1,507
1,542
1,567
M&M
1,392
1,433
1,454
1,495
1,517
MARUTI
4,776
4,968
5,078
5,271
5,381
NTPC
154
157
160
163
165
ONGC
230
234
238
242
246
POWERGRID
175
179
182
187
190
RELIANCE
958
986
1,030
1,057
1,102
SBIN
240
247
252
259
263
SUNPHARMA
733
758
771
796
809
TCS
2,427
2,471
2,511
2,554
2,594
TATAMTRDVR
326
339
346
359
366
TATAMOTORS
500
525
540
565
581
TATAPOWER
73
76
78
81
83
TATASTEEL
361
368
374
381
388
TECHM
438
455
466
483
493
ULTRACEMCO
3,643
3,864
3,979
4,201
4,316
WIPRO
467
475
486
494
504
YESBANK
1,289
1,339
1,367
1,416
1,444
ZEEL
488
511
528
551
568
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | September 3, 2016
FIIs buying heavily in Index Futures, buy on dips
Nifty spot closed at 8809.65 this week, against a close of 8572.55 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.04 to 1.13
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.68%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 22.26%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 30.50
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 52.45 points to its spot. Next
AXISBANK
36836400
75.68
602.85
2.59
month future is trading with premium of 69.85 points.
YESBANK
13118700
55.90
1386.85
4.07
PCR-OI has increased from 1.04 to 1.13 levels. In call option,
ALBK
15210000
39.67
84.95
7.80
8900 - 9100 strikes added good amount of positions; while
IDEA
59905000
34.50
83.80
(10.80)
some unwinding was seen in 8700 strike. Whereas, in put
option, 8600 strike added huge positions, followed by decent
BHARTIARTL
31359000
32.65
317.65
(7.99)
amount of OI build-up in 8700, 8800 and 8500 strikes.
AJANTPHARM
409200
29.82
1937.20
(2.32)
Highest open interest in September series is placed at 9000
DLF
46445000
29.10
151.00
(6.24)
call and 8600 put options.
TVSMOTOR
5376000
28.86
333.30
9.03
Stock that added longs last week are AXISBANK, YESBANK,
ALBK, TVSMOTOR and AMARAJABAT. While, fresh shorts were
visible in IDEA, BHARTIARTL, AJANTPHARM, DLF and ICIL.
Weekly OI losers
Liquid counters with higher CoC are ICICIBANK,
OI
OI
Price
BANKBARODA, ACC, INFRATEL and BPCL. Stocks with
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
negative CoC are TATAPOWER, BHEL, IDEA, NTPC and
FEDERALBNK
32153000
(13.03)
70.55
5.46
HEROMOTOCO.
PAGEIND
36700
(10.81)
15297.45
2.75
From start of September series, FIIs are quite active in
CASTROLIND
6090000
(10.25)
462.90
7.90
derivative segment and bought huge amount of index futures
in last few sessions. They also added good amount of index
BIOCON
3572800
(6.99)
917.50
2.07
call options. Though, we saw some profit booking on Friday
IOC
10681500
(6.81)
575.55
1.09
but the quantum was insignificant compared to longs in
ABIRLANUVO
4374750
(6.54)
1367.75
5.17
system. We believe, we may see Nifty showing further strength.
At current juncture, 8600-8650 may act as an immediate
LT
8685500
(6.45)
1509.35
4.90
support for this market. Thus, we suggest trader to buy on dips
TECHM
7130200
(5.30)
473.10
2.44
for the target of 8950-8900.
Weekly change in OI
60,000
Call
Put
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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