Technical and Derivatives Review | August 03, 2019
Some respite at crucial support, midcaps to rebound
Sensex (37118) / Nifty (10997)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Market continued its southward trajectory despite some respite seen last Friday. This sell off was mainly triggered post the budget
day as FPIs looked extremely disappointed of some announcements. We came off sharply since then on domestic concerns and to
make it worse, some escalation with respect to US China trade war extended the correction to tank below the 11000 mark for the
first time since January. Fortunately, on Friday we saw decent recovery from morning lows to erase some portion of losses.
Friday’s smart recovery has built some hopes of a short term relief move and since the low of 10848 coincides with multiple
technical evidences and key Fibonacci ratios, a possibility of some respite cannot be ruled out. On the daily chart, we can see a copy
book harmonic pattern known as ‘Bullish Cypher’ pattern. Also on the weekly chart, we can see convergence of ‘89 EMA’ as well as
the multi-month ‘Upward Sloping Trend Line’. Hence going ahead, as long as Friday’s low is intact; we may see Nifty rebounding
towards 11200 - 11350 levels. However, having said that, it would be difficult to comment whether Index has bottomed out or not.
At higher levels, one needs to lighten up positions and if we slide below this key support, be prepared for further slide. With a
broader view, we still believe that this decline is providing excellent opportunity for investors and hence, quality names should be
accumulated in a staggered manner.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | August 03, 2019
FIIs Long Short Ratio lowest for the calendar year
Nifty spot closed at 10997.35 this week, against a close of 11284.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.37 to 1.18.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.16%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 14.66%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 26.70 points against a premium of 42.70 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 76.90 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, we saw good amount of build-up in 11000-11200 call options. On the
other side, 10500-10900 puts added decent positions. Maximum open interest for the monthly series now stands at 11500 call and
11000 put option.
As far as this week is concerned, we witnessed follow-up selling in to correct below the important support zone of 11000-11100. On
Friday’s session we started-off the session with a downside gap and took support near 10850 mark, index recouple all the losses and
concluded the week slightly below 11000 mark. We also witnessed huge short formation last week and stronger hands too equally
participated by selling equities and adding shorts in index futures. At present, we are short heavy and hence expect some recovery in
the coming week.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
VOLTAS
4802000
53.32
608.50
3.98
SIEMENS
1406900
41.01
1122.00
(5.83)
CHOLAFIN
3755000
37.42
265.00
7.83
TVSMOTOR
7973900
33.43
368.55
(2.16)
STAR
3825600
35.78
380.35
7.81
MRF
31490
31.26
54054.25
(1.03)
UJJIVAN
6476800
31.13
277.65
3.58
RBLBANK
12343200
30.73
409.15
(10.88)
MARICO
10452000
25.59
374.20
2.96
SBIN
89730000
29.11
310.40
(9.86)
Weekly change in OI
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Technical and Derivatives Review | August 03, 2019
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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