Technical and Derivatives Weekly Review - July 3, 2023

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review |July 03, 2023

Bulls in cruise control, Nifty enters uncharted territory

Sensex (64719) / Nifty (19189)

Source: Tradingview.com

Future outlook

Our markets started the week on a flat note on Monday and remained lethargic like previous few days. On the following session, the

bulls started making some efforts to elevate markets higher from the key support zone of 18600 – 18700. This was aided by the

piece of news flow with respect to HDFC twin’s merger towards the fag end of the day. The entire financial space became buoyant

after this development, resulted in lifting Nifty beyond the 18800 mark convincingly. This optimism was then fueled by the

spectacular rally in US markets later that night. We were set to have a head start on Wednesday and the momentum just took off

thereafter. We not only managed to clock new high but went on to reach the milestone of 19000 on the expiry day. On Friday’s

session, the bulls took it forward to close tad below 19200 by adding massive 2.80% to the bulls’ kitty on a weekly basis.

It was a truncated week for our domestic bourses but by no means it was short of any action. A long slumber phase finally came to

an end and there couldn’t have been a better timing for this as it happened in the monthly expiry week. As we alluded to in the

previous commentary, market is awaiting some trigger and it’s a matter of time, we would see Nifty clocking fresh highs and then a

milestone of 19000. It’s finally a reality now and the recent laggard financial space became the charioteer for this move. Technically

speaking, we are amazed with how things fall into place so accurately sometimes. If we take a glance at the weekly time frame chart

of Nifty, we were observing 8th zone of ‘Fibonacci Time Series’ completing in this week only. Precisely, it happened and as we are

stepping into the 9th zone, market is at new highs with all heavyweights participating collectively. Price-wise, we can clearly see a

configuration of ‘V’ pattern which has been broken out in the upward direction. The theoretical target of this is much higher but

with the short to medium term view, we continue to remain upbeat on the market. As far as levels are concerned, we can see Nifty

heading towards 19350 – 19500 in the forthcoming week. However, one needs to be very selective going ahead because the low

hanging fruit is gone for the momentum traders. In between, we may see bout of profit booking, but the directional bias remains

strongly bullish till the time 18600 is not violated. Before this, 19000 followed by 18800 are to be seen as key supports.

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review |July 03, 2023

Sho

Form

ion

Long Rollovers for key indices

Nifty spot closed at 19189.05 this week, against a close of 18665.50 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.93 to 1.58 on

Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.90%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 0.95%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 72.20 against a premium of 131.60 points to its spot in the previous week.

Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 159.85 points.

The final week of June series turned out to be a lucky one for the Bulls, as index surpass yet another milestone of 19000 mark and on

Friday also went to touch 19200. On the derivatives front, we witnessed addition of fresh longs on net basis in key indices and these

positions have been rolled over too. On the first day of July series as well fresh longs were added in both the index. Stronger hands

continue pouring liquidity in Indian equity market. Meanwhile, they also added fresh longs in index futures, hence their Long Short

Ratio’ has surges to 69% from 53% WoW. Considering the above data points, we maintain our optimistic stance on market and

expect continuation ongoing rally in coming series towards 19400-19500.

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

MCX 2220400 42.01 1499.95 (4.27)

PIDILITIND 2375000 2.39 2610.05 (1.97)

DEEPAKNTR 2154300 2.12 2162.75 (1.86)

- - - - -

Weekly change in OI

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

ESCORTS 1567225 36.86 2264.55 5.12

BANDHANBNK 42205000 19.11 243.40 2.96

HDFCLIFE 23114300 18.58 651.90 3.73

GRANULES 10588000 13.75 299.20 4.36

INDUSTOWER 86740800 9.76 165.55 2.13

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review |July 03, 2023

Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Analyst – Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in

For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

DISCLAIMER

Angel One Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay

Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and

Portfolio Manager and investment advisor with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel One

Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration

number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for

accessing /dealing in securities Market.

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should

make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the

companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine

the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel or its associates or research analyst or his relative may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the securities of the

subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report. Neither Angel or its

associates nor Research Analysts or his relative has any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of research report.

Angel or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period

preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate

finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in

the normal course of business. Angel or its associates did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies

mentioned in the report or third party in connection with the research report. Neither Angel nor its research analyst entity has been

engaged in market making activity for the subject company.

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review |July 03, 2023

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate

the contrary view, if any.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable

sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this

document is for general guidance only. Angel One Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way

responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this

report. Angel One Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot

testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this

document. While Angel One Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there

may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,

redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

Neither Angel One Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in

connection with the use of this information. Angel or its associates or Research Analyst or his relative might have financial interest in

the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.