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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 02, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
New high very much on cards
Sensex (40165) / Nifty (11891)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Recently, the Nifty has been struggling to surpass the sturdy wall of 11650 – 11700. On the opening day of the week gone by, we saw index
surpassing this barrier with an ease and from there, we continued our march towards 11900. Last couple of trading sessions traded with a
neutral bias as we are experiencing some indecision with index per se. However, the stock specific action still continues in the market as we
saw good participation from the broader end of the spectrum. Eventually, the truncated week post the Diwali festival concluded with
handsome gains over a couple of percent.
Now, SENSEX already posting a fresh high, the Nifty is not going to shy away for a long time. Soon, we would be witnessing Nifty traversing
the 12000 mark to go beyond its record high of 12103.05. Before this some brakes seems to have applied on the recent momentum. As we
highlighted in our Friday’s article, last two day’s narrow range body formation indicates indecision or a profit booking and by no means, we
construe this as a sign of caution. In our sense, the northward trajectory is likely to continue and soon we are likely to be heading higher to
reach new milestones.
We are sounding extremely sanguine, because in the recent move from 11400, the overall market breadth has improved drastically and it’s
always a sign of a robust rally. Lot of beaten down sectors / counters are finally out of their slumber and are showing some encouraging
signs. Clearly the AUTO and PHARMA belongs to this category and the METAL space, which was on a roll this week. Do watch out for these
spaces as they are not done yet, rather this is just a beginning. Last but certainly not least, the banking index, which has been slightly
underperforming of late, is on the cusp of giving a breakout from crucial resistance zone. If it confirms this, no brainer, Nifty is heading
towards new high. For the coming week, 11843 – 11776 11714 would be seen as immediate support levels. In case of a decline towards
these crucial junctions, traders are advised to use it as an opportunity to go long with a positional perspective.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 02, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Long rollovers hints extension of recent rally beyond 12000
Nifty spot closed at 11890.60 this week, against a close of 11661.85 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.21 to 1.41.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.28%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 6.70 %.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 37.65 points against a premium of 51.20 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 85.30 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, the build-up was scattered between 11800-12500 call and 11200-11900
put options. Maximum open interest for the monthly series now stands at 12000 call and 11600 put option.
Post some consolidation, we witnessed Nifty surpassing the hurdle of 11650-11700 on Monday and then this rally extended towards
11900 mark. We witnessed fresh buying interest in index futures segment and most of the longs formed in October series have been
rolled over. If we look at the rollover figures, over 84% of the positions in Nifty have been rolled to November series which is much
higher than the average of 75.31%. During the month of October, FII’s too turned buyers as they bought equities worth Rs.8595
crores in the cash segment. In Index Futures segment too, they covered some of their short positions and added fresh long positions
during the series. Analyzing all the above data, we are quite optimistic for the November series and expect this upmove to continue.
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg (%)
TATACHEM 2515500 25.67 636.95 4.26
TATAGLOBAL 12244500 19.31 306.45 9.49
TECHM 19820400 15.83 764.00 5.69
BANKINDIA 29052000 14.93 68.95 4.31
BAJAJFINSV 1456500 8.17 8420.05 5.45
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg (%)
JUSTDIAL 3544800 32.63 560.15 (11.06)
UBL 2091600 26.45 1253.75 (6.48)
ADANIPORTS 15215000 16.03 391.65 (2.03)
APOLLOHOSP 1516500 14.07 1466.45 (3.64)
DRREDDY 3363500 9.67 2768.95 (1.10)
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 02, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]ngelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.c[email protected]ngelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Technical Analyst ruchi[email protected]broking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.set[email protected]lbroking.com