Technical Picks | January 2, 2016
Challenging task to decisively break through 8000
Sensex (26161) / Nifty (7963)
After an extended weekend, the Nifty opened on a flat note
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
on Monday, in-line with mixed global cues. The index then
managed to advance slowly and steadily through the
remaining part of the day to close convincingly above the
7900 mark. Subsequently, during the remaining part of the
week, the Nifty oscillated in a range of merely 90 points.
Eventually, the index closed Friday at the highest point of the
week, i.e. a tad above the 7950 mark. All the sectoral
indices traded with a positive bias, amongst which, the Auto,
Infrastructure, Realty, Oil & Gas and Banking stocks were
among the major gainers. The index ended the week with a
gain of 1.30% over the previous week’s closing.
Pattern formation:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
26251
/
7967 and
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
25975 / 7845 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
25829
/
7855 and
26280 / 7975 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
The last week of the calendar year 2015 ended in favor of
the bulls. The overall intra-week movement was very narrow
and lackluster due to lack of broader market participation
owing to Christmas holidays across the globe. We have
been mentioning about the key points of 7950 - 7970 on
the Nifty since the past couple of weeks. The index has now
Source: Company, Angel Research
reached these levels and is nearing its recent high of 7979.
This level coincides with the daily ‘89 EMA’ and thus, can be
positions and wait for further developments on the charts. As
considered as a strong hurdle in the near term. If the Nifty
of now, we expect the Nifty to remain within a small range
has to extend this up move, then it needs to break the
of 7850 - 8000. During the concluded week, a number of
psychological level of 8000 decisively. If it’s able to do so,
individual stocks performed favorably and we expect such
then we may witness an extension of the move towards
outperformance to continue in the coming week as well.
8080 - 8120 levels. On the flip side, the Nifty could slip
Traders should stick to stock centric approach with a proper
towards 7890 - 7850 levels if investors resort to some
exit strategy.
amount of profit booking on lack of conviction in the market
in the near term. Traders are advised to stay light on
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | January 2, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
25,731
25,946
26,072
26,286
26,412
NIFTY
7,823
7,893
7,933
8,003
8,042
NIFTY BANK
16,734
16,886
16,977
17,130
17,220
ACC
1,306
1,340
1,360
1,394
1,414
ADANIPORTS
253
260
264
272
276
AMBUJACEM
200
203
205
208
209
ASIANPAINT
868
874
880
885
892
AXISBANK
437
444
452
458
466
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,453
2,485
2,516
2,548
2,579
BANKBARODA
152
155
158
161
164
BHEL
163
167
170
174
178
BPCL
867
882
899
913
930
BHARTIARTL
324
332
338
346
352
BOSCH
17,866
18,533
18,916
19,583
19,966
CAIRN
134
136
138
141
143
CIPLA
641
648
654
661
667
COALINDIA
314
324
330
340
345
DRREDDY
2,942
3,025
3,099
3,182
3,256
GAIL
351
360
369
379
387
GRASIM
3,626
3,697
3,744
3,814
3,861
HCLTECH
815
831
852
868
889
HDFC
1,060
1,074
1,082
1,097
1,105
HDFCBANK
1,197
1,228
1,251
1,282
1,306
HEROMOTOCO
2,631
2,659
2,698
2,726
2,765
HINDALCO
82
83
85
86
88
HINDUNILVR
839
848
860
869
882
ICICIBANK
254
259
263
267
271
IDEA
136
140
142
146
149
INDUSINDBK
932
948
960
976
988
INFY
1,072
1,089
1,099
1,116
1,126
ITC
319
323
327
331
334
KOTAKBANK
687
707
719
739
750
LT
1,259
1,274
1,287
1,303
1,316
LUPIN
1,778
1,812
1,838
1,872
1,898
M&M
1,229
1,247
1,263
1,282
1,298
MARUTI
4,523
4,581
4,624
4,682
4,726
NTPC
135
140
144
149
154
ONGC
230
236
240
246
250
POWERGRID
138
139
141
143
144
PNB
112
115
118
121
124
RELIANCE
991
1,003
1,011
1,024
1,032
SBIN
221
225
227
231
233
SUNPHARMA
777
796
811
830
845
TCS
2,371
2,394
2,430
2,453
2,489
TATAMOTORS
363
382
393
412
423
TATAPOWER
66
67
68
70
71
TATASTEEL
247
252
258
263
270
TECHM
505
512
520
528
536
ULTRACEMCO
2,746
2,785
2,807
2,846
2,869
VEDL
88
90
92
93
95
WIPRO
545
551
560
565
574
YESBANK
717
725
731
739
745
ZEEL
397
415
427
445
457
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | January 2, 2016
Lighten up longs around 8100-8150 levels
Nifty spot closed at 7963.20 this week against a close of 7861.05 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.83 to 0.77
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.19%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 3.30%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 0.83 to 0.77 levels. In call
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 10.69%
options, 8100-8300 strikes added huge buildup, while in
to 13.05%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 14.10%
put options
7700-7900 added good amount of open
and that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 17.58%. Liquid
interest. Maximum buildup in current series is seen in 8200
counters having very high HV are RELINFRA, ADANIENT,
call & 7800 put options. Seeing the rollovers in Nifty, it
RELCAPITAL, INDIACEM and NTPC. Stocks where HV are
seem most of the longs are still in system and Nifty may
on lower side are HINDALCO, TATACOMM, IDFC,
breach its resistance zone of 8100-8150 levels.
SIEMENS and UPL.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has decreased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 18.80
`2,52,471/- cr. to `1,71,366/- cr. Stock futures open
points against a premium of 10.70 points to its spot. Next
interest has decreased from `70,214/- cr. to `62,545/- cr.
month future is trading with premium of 39.70 points.
Liquid counters names which added significant positions
Liquid counters where CoC is high are VEDL, IDFC,
last week are BIOCON, ABIRLANUVO, RELCAPITAL,
AXISBANK, ASIANPAINT and DLF. Stocks with negative
AUROPHARMA and CENTURYTEX. On the other hand
CoC are COALINDIA, NMDC, GAIL, ONGC and WIPRO.
unwinding was visible in counters like BPCL, ACC,
HEROMOTOCO, NTPC and AMBUJACEM.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip: SBIN
CMP : `228.80
Lot Size : 2000
Exercise Date (F & O) :
28th Jan 2016
View: Mildly Bearish
Strategy: Ratio Bear Put Spread
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
2000
SBIN
230
JAN
PE
6.50
205
(`5.50)
SELL
4000
SBIN
220
JAN
PE
3.00
212
`1.50
LBEP - `210.50
219
`8.50
UBEP - `229.50
226
`3.50
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `19,000
If SBIN continues to move below LBEP.
If SBIN closes at `220 level on expiry.
233
(`0.50)
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if SBIN moves in favorable direction and time value decays.
240
(`0.50)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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