Technical Picks | October 1, 2016
Though market has entered a corrective phase, no signs of speedy recovery
Sensex (27866) / Nifty (8611)
The Nifty index started the week with a downside gap on
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
Monday, signifying dominance of the bears right from the
word go, for the new trading week. Post a negative closing
on Monday, the index consolidated for the next couple of
trading sessions. Though the index opened on a positive
note on Thursday following the global cues, it took a
complete nosedive post the midsession ending the volatile
day with a loss of over 150 points. On Friday, although the
index traded in a narrow range, the midcap stocks witnessed
a pullback move and outperformed the benchmark indices.
Key Moving Averages:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27608
/
8493 and
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
26325 / 8023 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
28373
/
8732 and
27573 / 8481 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
After three weeks of indecisive move, we finally witnessed
some action in the market, during the penultimate session of
the week. We saw a sharp correction on Thursday over the
Indian Army’s surgical strike in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir
(PoK). If we refer to our recent articles, we have been
cautious on the market and were expecting decent correction
Source: Company, Angel Research
since last three weeks. Though the Nifty has met the near
At this juncture, 8550 - 8510 seems to be a strong support.
term targets of
8600
-
8550, unfortunately this has
However, the probability of breaking this support has
happened on the back of a geopolitical concern. Now on
increased. The materialization of this to be expected in the
the daily chart, the ‘Lower Top Lower Bottom’ formation has
forthcoming week or later will be assessed as the trading
been confirmed to be coupled with the falling RSI values.
activity progresses. However, going ahead 8688 - 8800 has
Further, if we broaden our time frames by looking at the
become a stiff hurdle for the Nifty. In case of a bounce, we
weekly and monthly chart, the picture seems to be not so
may see strong selling pressure around these levels. On the
encouraging there as well. We have been mentioning about
downside, we may see amplification of this corrective move
the ‘Shooting Star’ pattern formed on the weekly chart,
towards 8398 - 8287, after convincingly breaking the key
during the preantepenultimate week. This pattern showed its
support zone of 8550 - 8510. Thus, it is advisable for
significance and now we can observe a negative crossover in
traders to stay light on positions and avoid taking undue
‘RSI-smoothened’ in the overbought territory for the first time
risks. Having said that, we firmly believe that the broader
in the past 19 months. All these evidences does not bode
degree trend remains bullish and in case of this corrective
well for the bulls and considering the monthly chart (Nifty
move, traders should start accumulating value buying
closed below the ‘Super Trend’ indicator), we may see the
propositions.
market undergoing a corrective phase for at least two-three
months.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | October 1, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,157
27,512
28,071
28,426
28,985
NIFTY
8,404
8,508
8,659
8,762
8,913
NIFTY BANK
18,645
18,965
19,380
19,700
20,115
ACC
1,550
1,575
1,601
1,626
1,652
ADANIPORTS
235
246
260
271
286
AMBUJACEM
241
247
255
260
268
ASIANPAINT
1,126
1,143
1,173
1,191
1,221
AUROPHARMA
742
799
841
897
939
AXISBANK
505
523
542
560
578
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,729
2,778
2,866
2,915
3,003
BANKBARODA
155
161
166
172
177
BHEL
120
127
137
144
154
BPCL
579
596
612
629
645
BHARTIARTL
296
305
317
326
338
INFRATEL
344
355
365
376
386
BOSCH
21,819
22,308
22,949
23,439
24,080
CIPLA
533
557
586
609
639
COALINDIA
305
314
325
334
346
DRREDDY
2,961
3,033
3,130
3,202
3,300
EICHERMOT
23,117
23,972
25,307
26,162
27,497
GAIL
344
359
373
389
402
GRASIM
4,540
4,688
4,813
4,962
5,087
HCLTECH
772
786
795
809
819
HDFCBANK
1,242
1,257
1,283
1,299
1,325
HDFC
1,352
1,374
1,403
1,425
1,454
HEROMOTOCO
3,300
3,357
3,445
3,502
3,590
HINDALCO
141
147
153
158
164
HINDUNILVR
833
851
882
900
931
ICICIBANK
229
241
255
266
280
IDEA
75
77
80
82
85
INDUSINDBK
1,153
1,174
1,203
1,225
1,253
INFY
1,011
1,023
1,037
1,049
1,063
ITC
233
237
245
250
258
KOTAKBANK
748
762
781
796
814
LT
1,352
1,392
1,452
1,493
1,553
LUPIN
1,414
1,450
1,491
1,527
1,568
M&M
1,325
1,365
1,391
1,431
1,457
MARUTI
5,253
5,365
5,495
5,607
5,737
NTPC
141
145
151
154
160
ONGC
239
248
254
263
269
POWERGRID
166
171
177
182
187
RELIANCE
1,030
1,057
1,093
1,120
1,156
SBIN
237
244
251
258
264
SUNPHARMA
701
722
753
774
805
TCS
2,366
2,399
2,428
2,461
2,489
TATAMTRDVR
317
329
340
351
362
TATAMOTORS
500
518
534
551
567
TATAPOWER
70
73
75
77
80
TATASTEEL
353
364
374
384
394
TECHM
396
408
431
444
467
ULTRACEMCO
3,734
3,793
3,897
3,955
4,059
WIPRO
463
471
478
486
493
YESBANK
1,164
1,209
1,257
1,303
1,350
ZEEL
507
526
543
562
578
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | October 1, 2016
Rollovers on lower side, avoid bottom fishing
Nifty spot closed at 8611.15 this week, against a close of 8831.55 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.15 to 0.94
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.63%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 31.94%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 29.50
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 55.85 points to its spot. Next
ANDHRABANK
20140000
16.69
56.75
(6.89)
month future is trading with premium of 70.10 points.
ABIRLANUVO
4464750
9.57
1372.25
(1.99)
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.15 to 0.94 levels. Being start of
IBREALEST
40770000
8.46
92.85
5.15
new series, the overall build-up is quite scattered. 8600-9000
SYNDIBANK
16335000
5.28
73.70
(3.15)
call and 8000-8600 put options were active and they also
ADANIPOWER
109860000
1.85
25.10
(9.87)
added fresh open interest week on week. Highest open interest
in October series remains intact at 9000 call and 8500 put
CENTURYTEX
6644000
1.84
947.90
4.29
options.
-
-
-
-
-
Large cap counters that had high roll-overs are
-
-
-
-
-
BANKNARODA, LUPIN, SBIN, HCLTECH and VEDL. While,
stocks like ZEEL, GAIL, BAJAJ-AUTO, ITC and ONGC have
low roll-overs. Liquid counters with higher CoC are
Weekly OI losers
HDFCBANK, TATASTEEL, HINDALCO, EICHERMOT and
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
NTPC. Stocks with negative CoC are JUSTDIAL, MINDTREE,
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
INFY, HCLTECH and TVSMOTOR.
BEL
1087650
(54.52)
1253.05
0.28
TORNTPHARM
190000
(43.45)
1631.70
(0.57)
Being the expiry week, the overall market was quite volatile.
The market was in a tremendous pressure on Thursday, which
HAVELLS
2158000
(40.68)
420.30
2.61
led to a negative close on a WoW basis. We witnessed a good
AMARAJABAT
402000
(38.53)
1016.45
(0.91)
amount of profit booking in Index Futures. As a result, the
SRF
331000
(36.53)
1785.90
(0.22)
Rollover in October series is low both in terms of open interest
as well as percentage. At this juncture, we would suggest
OIL
800700
(36.52)
402.95
(0.32)
traders to avoid bottom fishing and wait for further
MOTHERSUMI
8690000
(34.64)
319.70
0.11
development.
CEATLTD
1291500
(34.32)
1331.75
12.85
Weekly change in OI
45,000
Call
Put
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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