August 1, 2015
Technical Picks |
Nifty moving in broader range - Stock specific action to continue
Sensex (28115) / Nifty (8533)
Trading for the week started off on Monday on a negative note
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
owing to negative global cues. The Nifty opened gap down, ie
below the support level of 8480, and continued to fall lower as
the session progressed due to concern over P-Notes and turmoil
in the Chinese market (Shanghai Composite). This was followed
by a weak session on Tuesday. However, the Nifty was reluctant
to breach the previous swing low of 8315.40 as the bulls showed
tremendous resilience at the lower levels. Thus, we witnessed a
decent upmove on Wednesday and in Thursday's session. The
concluding session of the week saw the Nifty regain the 8500
Source: Falcon
level on a closing basis. On the sectoral front, FMCG, IT,
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Pharma, Realty and PSU Banking counters were the major
gainers; whereas, Oil & Gas, Metal and Telecom conglomerates
were among the major losers. The Nifty ended the week with a
marginal gain of 0.13% over the previous week's closing.
Pattern formation:
The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at
27771 / 8402 and 25768 / 7761 levels, respectively.
The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at
27896 / 8456 and 27793 / 8418 levels, respectively.
Source: Falcon
observing a 'Positive Hidden Divergence' by the 'RSI -
Future outlook
smoothened' in the daily chart, suggesting that the Nifty could
The Nifty gave a gap down opening on the first trading session
cross its recent high of 8654.75. But the weekly chart is not
of the concluded week. The sharp fall in the index was in line
depicting as favorable a picture. We are observing strong
with our view as we clearly stated in our previous weekly report
resistance of the 'Rising Trendline' at 8660 - 8720 levels on the
that a sustainable move below the 8480 mark may drag the
weekly chart, which coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci
index to 8400 - 8315 levels. However, the bulls came into action
retracement level of the entire fall from 9119.20 to 7940.30.
to protect the previous swing low of 8315.40 and decisively
Considering both the daily and weekly charts, we expect the
pulled the Nifty above the psychological resistance level of 8500.
Nifty to trade within the broader range of 8315 - 8720 with a
With Friday's price action, the Nifty has filled the gap of Monday's
positive bias in the forthcoming week. We still believe that there
session. Going forward, we are expecting the Nifty to trade
is continued scope for stock specific action in the market and it
with a positive bias as the 'Higher Top Higher Bottom' formation
is therefore advisable to follow a stock centric approach.
on the daily chart is still intact. On the oscillator front, we are
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
1
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
August 1, 2015
Technical Picks |
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,153
27,634
27,897
28,378
28,642
NIFTY
8,241
8,387
8,468
8,614
8,695
BANKNIFTY
17,923
18,326
18,578
18,981
19,232
ACC
1,325
1,356
1,381
1,412
1,437
AMBUJACEM
218
225
232
240
247
ASIANPAINT
804
844
864
904
924
AXISBANK
539
556
568
585
597
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,419
2,472
2,514
2,567
2,609
BANKBARODA
141
159
169
188
198
BHEL
261
270
280
288
298
BPCL
884
905
940
961
996
BHARTIARTL
389
404
419
434
449
BOSCH LIMITED
21,951
23,310
24,109
25,469
26,267
CAIRN
159
166
170
177
182
CIPLA
640
675
699
734
758
COALINDIA
407
423
433
449
459
DRREDDY
3,520
3,798
3,946
4,224
4,371
GAIL
336
345
353
362
370
GRASIM
3,582
3,649
3,705
3,772
3,827
HCLTECH
889
944
975
1,029
1,061
HDFCBANK
1,050
1,081
1,101
1,132
1,152
HDFC
1,272
1,306
1,333
1,367
1,393
HEROMOTOCO
2,396
2,539
2,644
2,788
2,893
HINDALCO
99
102
105
108
112
HINDUNILVR
873
897
916
940
959
ICICIBANK
272
287
298
313
324
IDEA
161
167
172
179
184
INDUSINDBK
905
941
965
1,002
1,026
INFY
1,037
1,057
1,074
1,095
1,112
ITC
290
308
318
336
345
KOTAKBANK
652
674
706
727
759
LT
1,704
1,747
1,782
1,825
1,860
LUPIN
1,547
1,622
1,665
1,740
1,782
M&M
1,267
1,315
1,349
1,397
1,431
MARUTI
4,073
4,202
4,281
4,410
4,488
NMDC
93
98
105
110
117
NTPC
129
132
136
139
142
ONGC
254
263
273
283
292
POWERGRID
138
140
142
144
145
PNB
123
137
146
160
169
RELIANCE
967
985
1,007
1,025
1,047
SBIN
244
257
265
278
287
SUNPHARMA
794
808
824
838
854
TCS
2,455
2,483
2,501
2,529
2,547
TATAMOTORS
356
370
380
394
405
TATAPOWER
63
66
69
72
75
TATASTEEL
234
240
252
258
270
TECHM
499
515
524
540
549
ULTRACEMCO
2,998
3,074
3,157
3,232
3,316
VEDANTA
123
127
130
134
137
WIPRO
547
558
565
577
584
YESBANK
759
794
817
852
876
ZEEL
382
390
397
406
413
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
2
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
August 1, 2015
Derivatives Review |
8700-8800 is resistance zone for the market
Nifty spot closed at 8532.85 this week against a close of 8521.55 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.06 to 0.91
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.83%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 23.80%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.06 to 0.91 levels. Being start of
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 12.05% to
new series build-up is quite scattered. In call options 8300-
13.42%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 18.05% and
9000 strikes and in put options 8000-8600 strikes added huge
that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 23.47%. Liquid counters having
buildup. Seeing the over-all options data we believe we may
very high HV are PNB, BANKBARODA, DRREDDY,
see strength in Nifty from current levels. Maximum buildup in
HEROMOTOCO and GLENMARK. Stocks where HV are on
current series is seen in 8800 call & 8200 put options.
lower side are SUNPHARMA, CESC, MCLEODRUSS, BAJAJ-
AUTO, SOUTHBANK
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has decreased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 36.80 points
`2,59,358/- cr. to `1,84,198/- cr. Stock futures open interest
against a premium of 54.95 points to its spot. Next month
has decreased from `69,345/- cr. to `64,552/- cr. Liquid
future is trading with premium of 74.25 points. Liquid counters
counters names which added significant positions last week
where CoC is high are ICICIBANK, HDFCBANK, TATAPOWER,
are BANKBARODA, ICICIBANK, DRREDDY, CIPLA and
AXISBANK and BPCL. Stocks with negative CoC are DLF,
HDFCBANK. On the other hand unwinding was visible in
INDUSINDBK, HCLTECH, GAIL and POWERGRID.
counters like ZEEL, HEROMOTOCO, PNB, TECHM and
BAJAJ-AUTO.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : HINDALCO
CMP : `105.80
Lot Size : 2000
Exercise Date (F & O) :
27th. Aug 2015
View: Mildly Bearish
Strategy: Bear Put Spread
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
2000
HINDALCO
105
AUG
PE
3.50
92
`7.50
SELL
2000
HINDALCO
95
AUG
PE
1.00
95
`7.50
BEP
-
`102.50
98
`4.50
Max. Risk: `5000/-
Max. Profit: `15,000/-
101
`1.50
If HINDALCO continues to move above BE
If HINDALCO closes on or below Rs. 95/- on expiry.
104
(`1.50)
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if HINDALCO moves in favorable direction and time value decays.
107
`(2.50)
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
3
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
Weekly
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
Disclaimer
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and MCX Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and Portfolio
Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a registered entity with
SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164. Angel or its
associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel
or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company
covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of
securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst has not served as an officer, director or
employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock’s price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company’s
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for
general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss
or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited
has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation
or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited
endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed
or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or
in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important ‘Stock Holding Disclosure’ report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have
investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)