1
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| April 01, 2021
New FY kicks off positively, the broader market outshines
Sensex (50030) / Nifty (14867)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
After an extended weekend, our markets opened on Tuesday with a good bump up on the back of favourable cues from the global
bourses. The initial lead extended as we witnessed a good broad based participation to clock more than a couple of percent gains.
This was followed by a subdued session with few pockets kept sulking to trim some of the gains. However once again on Thursday,
the buying resumed across the board to reclaim the 14800 mark and with this managed to secure the weekly gains of nearly two and
half a percent to kick off the new Financial Year on a positive note.
Despite being a truncated week, it was not at all short of actions as we saw good traction in some of the individual pockets,
especially on the last session. The index is currently undergoing a time-correction and hence, it remained in a small trading band
throughout the week. As far as levels are concerned, 14900 followed by 15050 remains to be a sturdy wall; but the way its placed
now due to Thursday’s late surge, the possibility of testing and even going beyond this cannot be ruled out. The hourly chart exhibits
a configuration of a bullish ‘Cup and Handle’ pattern and any sustainable move beyond 14900 would strengthen this structure to
attract some buying interest in the heavyweight constituents as well. On the flipside, 14800 14670 are to be seen as immediate
supports. The mentioned bullish structure will get negated if Nifty slides below 14670 and hence, one should keep a close tab on
how the overall move pans out in the first half of the forthcoming week.
In the week gone by, the financial stocks did not participate much in Tuesday’s up move but they proved their significance on the
last day as it single-handedly propelled the Nifty beyond 14800 towards the fag end on the weekly expiry session. This space plays a
vital role if our benchmark has to move beyond the 15000 mark. Apart from this, the metal stocks had a mesmerizing rally
throughout the week as some of the steel counters soared as if there is no tomorrow. Yes, the low hanging fruit is already gone for
momentum traders but it would certainly be interesting to see how they perform going ahead. Importantly, the stocks from the cash
segment did exceedingly well after a lull period of nearly four weeks. It’s advisable to focus on such potential movers.
2
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| April 01, 2021
No clear indication from F&O space
Nifty spot closed at 14867.35 this week, against a close of 14507.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.14 to 1.16.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 7.54%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has remained unchanged.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 86.00 points against a premium of 113.80 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading at a premium of 134.40 points.
In options segment, we saw some build-up in 14800 and 14900 call options followed by unwinding in 14500 and 14600. On the other
side, build-up remained scattered between 14300-14800 put strikes. Maximum build-up in the weekly series is now placed in 15000
call and 14000 put options.
We kick started the week with an upside gap as suggested by the global markets. The benchmark index rallied sharply on Tuesday to
reclaim 14850 mark. This was followed by some consolidation and once again buying resumed on Thursday to almost touch 14900.
Finally, we concluded the truncated week two and a half percent higher to previous weeks close. Surprisingly, there wasn’t any
change in open interest for Nifty; whereas, banking index rallied mainly due to short covering. We believe decent amount of shorts
are still intact in Bank Nifty considering the rollovers in April series. As we haven’t seen any build-up in Nifty, data remains unclear
for the time being. As far as levels are concerned, 14600-14700 shall now act as a demand zone; whereas, resistance is placed
around 15000 mark.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
NAUKRI 1442750 50.40 4292.75 (4.51)
PEL
4022700
37.46
1795.30
(1.26)
IDFCFIRSTB
203604000
29.26
56.90
(1.22)
M&MFIN
16584000
22.16
204.05
(1.19)
MUTHOOTFIN
2769000
6.34
1221.30
(0.35)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
GAIL 48415700 92.37 140.90 6.26
IDEA
664090000
46.83
10.15
10.33
TVSMOTOR
3837400
43.21
591.45
3.17
TVSMOTOR
3837400
43.21
591.45
3.17
TATACONSUM
15711300
41.75
654.30
3.38
3
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| April 01, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]ng.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jai[email protected].com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosl[email protected]ng.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]gelbroking.com