Technical Picks | April 1, 2017
Highest ever monthly close for our market, lot more in the offing
Sensex (29621) / Nifty (9174)
The Nifty index started trading for the week on a negative
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
note as we witnessed some profit taking in individual
counters. However, the '20 DEMA', which has not been
breached in this calendar year acted as a sheet anchor;
leading the index to resume its uptrend on Tuesday. During
the remaining part of the week, the Nifty crept higher
without penetrating below its previous day's low and ended
the week with marginal gains of 0.72 percent over its
previous week's close. Amongst the sectoral indices, the Nifty
PSU Bank index was the clear outperformer with weekly
gains of 4.96 percent as the stocks within the sector moved
higher with good volumes.
Key Moving Averages:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
28232
/
8723 and
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
26982 / 8275 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
29277
/
9057 and
28251 / 8729 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
It was the historical month for our markets as our
benchmark indices posted a monthly close on record highs.
Although, 9200 has been yet to taken off convincingly, the
overall buying interest around 9050 - 9020 was certainly an
encouraging factor for our markets. Due to a decent
recovery in last four days, the Nifty eventually closed on a
Source: Company, Angel Research
high note.
It’s very difficult to give a time-wise prediction; but one needs
In the month gone by, we saw a range bound activity within
to stay on the long side as long as directional view is
200 points post the gap up opening on the back of UP
concerned. It’s advisable to use intermediate dips to create
election outcome. It was hard to surpass the 9200 mark as
fresh long positions in the market. The base for the Nifty
61.8% ‘Reciprocal Retracement’ of the previous down move
has shifted higher from 8850 to 9020, which is another
(from 8968.70 to 7893.80) converge around this level. But,
promising sign for our market.
having said that, the weekly chart structure still looks sturdy
and is poised for much higher levels in the longer run. In
addition, the rising slope of ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on weekly
chart after surpassing the 70 mark, continues to provide a
credence for the projected up move towards 9400 - 9600
(price extension of previous up move from recent low of
7893.80) over the next few weeks.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | April 1, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
28,966
29,293
29,491
29,818
30,015
NIFTY
8,963
9,068
9,130
9,235
9,297
NIFTY BANK
20,657
21,050
21,373
21,767
22,090
ACC
1,370
1,408
1,429
1,467
1,488
ADANIPORTS
307
323
333
349
359
AMBUJACEM
223
230
234
240
244
ASIANPAINT
1,025
1,049
1,064
1,089
1,104
AUROPHARMA
656
666
675
684
693
AXISBANK
466
479
496
508
525
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,760
2,783
2,818
2,841
2,876
BANKBARODA
164
168
172
177
181
BPCL
629
640
649
659
668
BHARTIARTL
329
339
346
357
363
INFRATEL
285
305
317
338
350
BOSCHLTD
22,018
22,385
22,892
23,259
23,766
CIPLA
584
588
595
599
605
COALINDIA
286
289
292
296
299
DRREDDY
2,586
2,609
2,629
2,652
2,672
EICHERMOT
23,346
24,467
25,141
26,262
26,936
GAIL
363
370
379
385
394
GRASIM
1,028
1,039
1,057
1,067
1,086
HCLTECH
828
851
871
894
914
HDFCBANK
1,366
1,404
1,442
1,480
1,518
HDFC
1,420
1,461
1,496
1,537
1,572
HEROMOTOCO
3,050
3,136
3,266
3,352
3,482
HINDALCO
185
190
193
198
201
HINDUNILVR
882
897
910
925
939
IBULHSGFIN
931
965
983
1,016
1,035
ICICIBANK
266
272
277
283
288
IOC
356
372
382
397
407
INDUSINDBK
1,364
1,394
1,413
1,443
1,462
INFY
990
1,006
1,024
1,040
1,058
ITC
272
276
280
285
289
KOTAKBANK
841
857
868
884
896
LT
1,513
1,544
1,569
1,600
1,625
LUPIN
1,412
1,429
1,458
1,474
1,504
M&M
1,244
1,266
1,280
1,302
1,316
MARUTI
5,878
5,947
5,998
6,067
6,118
NTPC
161
163
165
168
169
ONGC
178
181
187
190
196
POWERGRID
191
194
197
200
203
RELIANCE
1,193
1,257
1,297
1,361
1,402
SBIN
268
281
288
301
308
SUNPHARMA
673
681
692
699
711
TCS
2,375
2,404
2,434
2,463
2,493
TATAMTRDVR
271
276
283
288
295
TATAMOTORS
455
460
468
473
481
TATAPOWER
83
87
89
92
95
TATASTEEL
465
474
483
492
501
TECHM
436
448
463
474
489
ULTRACEMCO
3,871
3,928
3,991
4,048
4,112
WIPRO
496
506
512
522
529
YESBANK
1,504
1,525
1,541
1,563
1,579
ZEEL
500
518
529
547
559
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | April 1, 2017
Consistent long rollovers in last four series augurs well for market
Nifty spot closed at 9173.75 this week, against a close of 9108.00 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.06 to 0.97
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.54%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 22.41%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty April month future closed with a premium of
24.00
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 42.50 points to its spot. May
APOLLOHOSP
1616800
23.31
1169.10
(0.78)
month future is trading with a premium of 46.80 points.
GODREJIND
1965000
15.93
507.05
2.63
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.06 to 0.97 levels. Being start of
AJANTPHARM
592400
15.70
1769.95
(3.44)
new series, the overall build-up is quite scattered. In call
options, 9200-9400 strikes were quite active and they also
IDFCBANK
80960000
14.88
59.60
(2.45)
added decent positions. While, on the flip side, good amount
VOLTAS
6260000
14.11
414.30
6.41
of positions were formed in 8700-9200 put options. Highest
IBULHSGFIN
19585600
14.06
1000.55
4.19
open interest in April series is placed at 9200 call and 9000
put options.
INDUSINDBK
7820400
14.04
1424.75
2.43
JETAIRWAYS
5615000
11.74
528.90
7.14
Stock that added longs last week are GODREJIND, VOLTAS,
IBULHSGFIN, JETAIRWAYS and JPASSOCIAT. While, fresh
shorts were visible in AJANTPHARM, ONGC, GLENMARK,
IDFCBANK and LUPIN. Liquid counters with higher CoC are
Weekly OI losers
IFCI, INDIACEM, NIITTECH, DCBBANK and JPASSOCIAT.
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Stocks with negative CoC are VEDL, OFSS, TORNTPHARM,
BHARTIARTL and KSCL.
BRITANNIA
360600
(69.75)
3389.15
2.54
GAIL
15666000
(47.13)
378.30
(0.90)
Despite being an expiry week, the overall market remained
quite range bound. Rollover in Nifty is low in terms of
UBL
1038800
(31.30)
775.75
(0.09)
percentage, but is on the higher side if open interest is
UNIONBANK
18872000
(30.64)
156.15
1.23
considered. Thus, hinting longs formed in last series are still
TVSMOTOR
4304000
(30.40)
431.00
0.51
intact. In cash segment, FIIs pumped huge liquidity after many
years. Considering the above data, we continue to remain
PETRONET
4059000
(29.51)
405.20
2.26
upbeat on market and would suggest traders to use declines
SRTRANSFIN
2025600
(29.43)
1080.50
4.42
to form fresh longs.
KSCL
2694000
(26.51)
554.85
(1.29)
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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