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)
Despite a decent tail end recovery on Wednesday, the BANKNIFTY
started the session on a subdued note. However, it was intriguing to
observe a fresh buying right from the opening bell, enabling the index
to reclaim the 43600 mark within the first hour of trade. In the absence
of follow-up buying thereafter, the index maintained a tepid
performance throughout the day, consolidating within a narrow range
and ultimately concluding a tad below 43600.
From a technical standpoint, we haven’t witnessed any significant
price action yesterday, as the index continued to oscillate within the
previous day’s trading range. It appears that the market is eagerly
awaiting potential catalysts/developments that could influence
market dynamics in the near term. On a broader scale, 43200-43800
remains the trading range for BankNifty, and any decisive move
beyond this range will dictate the directional move for the monthly
expiry. Till then, traders are advised not to trade aggressively in this
space.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43200 Resistance 1 – 43800
Support 2 – 43000 Resistance 2 – 44000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
60
18
) / Nifty (
1
9
8
0
2
)
On the weekly expiry day, Nifty commenced the session on a slight
positive note. However, as the day unfolded, prices adhered to the
recent trend of engaging in range-bound trading during intra-day.
Throughout the major part of the day, prices fluctuated within a narrow
range of around 50 points, ultimately concluding with minimal
deviation from the closing figures of the previous session, settling a tad
above 19800.
The prevailing monotony persists, with the market lacking substantial
momentum for over a week. From a technical standpoint, there is no
major change from the previous day's close, and prices persist in
consolidating around the resistance of the previous swing high around
19850 - 19900 zone. The small body candles observed on the daily chart
following the robust surge since the beginning of November suggest
fatigue in the bulls' camp. Nevertheless, the fact that dips are being met
with buying interest and there is no substantial sell-off around the
crucial resistance level is a positive sign for the bulls. To initiate
momentum, however, prices must convincingly breach the 19850-
19900 range, paving the way for a robust upward movement toward
the psychological threshold of 20000 and beyond in the near term.
Conversely, the support at 19700 has proven resilient throughout the
week followed by a strong support seen around the bullish gap situated
around 19580-19500 zone. In our view, momentum is likely to trigger
soon, given the typical pattern of transitioning from a period of low to
high volatility. Traders are encouraged to monitor the aforementioned
levels and structure their trades accordingly
.
The primary focus throughout the week has been on individual stock
trades, and this approach can be continued. However, with
extended weekend, it is advisable to refrain from establishing
aggressive overnight positions.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19700 Resistance 1 – 19850
Support 2 – 19580 Resistance 2 – 19900
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The Indian Equity market had a lackluster weekly
settlement session, wherein the benchmark index
stayed in a slender range for majority part of the day,
and eventually managed to withhold 19800 zone.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 256 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 554 cr in Index futures with a negligible
decrease in open interest.
On the derivatives front, we observed a muted
weekly expiry session for Nifty. On the options front,
significant piling of OI is seen at 19800 PE, suggesting
an immediate support, followed by 19700 PE. On the
higher end, 19900 CE and 20000 CE attracted Call
writers for the final expiry. The Long Short Ratio
slightly cools down to 21% from 23%, amidst weekly
settlement. Considering the data, Nifty seems range
bound and awaits trigger to come out of slumber
phase. Though the undertone remains bullish, and
any dips are likely to augur well for the bulls.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 5.10%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
2.38% as the market closed at 19802.00.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
66.75 points against a premium of 72.25 points in the
last trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 178.25 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 11.87 to 11.32. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.07 to 0.86.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are CIPLA, HINDPETRO, HEROMOTOCO,
ABFRL and BAJAJ-AUTO.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SBICARD 30.63
ABCAPITAL 38.96
RBLBANK 54.88
SBILIFE 27.27
SBIN 27.48
Nifty Vs OI
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
11-7 11-9 11-13 11-17 11-21 11-23
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CIPLA 13040950 26.10 1170.55 -7.94
BALRAMCHIN 13699200 13.58 470.30 1.58
HEROMOTOCO 4230000 11.67 3568.00 4.52
GNFC 9543300 9.24 706.05 2.03
BPCL 34128000 8.97 411.30 2.59
CHAMBLFERT 14174000 8.78 310.95 -0.35
AARTIIND 15055000 8.21 529.75 1.80
PERSISTENT 1890775 7.15 6378.80 -2.61
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
PIIND 17600 -13.08 3758.15 3.03
BALKRISIND 2034600 -10.99 2553.05 2.08
INDUSINDBK 23904000 -6.52 1486.10 1.10
SBICARD 15820000 -5.47 738.95 0.93
AUROPHARMA 19132300 -5.38 1028.75 -2.25
MCX 3406800 -5.21 2926.25 2.68
RBLBANK 54597500 -4.53 238.85 1.42
TORNTPHARM 1744000 -4.46 2106.55 -0.65
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.86 0.95
BANKNIFTY 0.92 0.90
RELIANCE 0.64 0.59
ICICIBANK 0.54 0.59
INFY 0.63 0.61
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
8
02
.
00
FII Statistics for
November
2
3
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2174.93 2728.92 (553.99) 231430 19118.67 (0.32)
INDEX
OPTIONS
1857020.78 1899051.23 (42030.45) 2947635 239903.11 (24.33)
STOCK
FUTURES
18213.19 17277.13 936.06
2715464 195080.08 0.11
STOCK
OPTIONS
19804.90 19717.60 87.30
312007 23053.01 0.28
Total
1897213.80
1938774.88
(41561.08) 6206536
477154.87
(13.21)
Turnover on
November
2
3
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
186658 15530.26
-42.28
Index Options
385459890
38181.62
-26.73
Stock Futures
1089953 79937.04
4.08
Stock Options
5075614 3538.49
-3.48
Total
50,75,614
3538.49
-13.98
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19700
205.70
73.00 27.00 19773.00
Sell
19800
132.70
Buy
19700 205.70
130.90 69.10 19830.90
Sell
19900 74.80
Buy
19800
132.70
57.90 42.10 19857.90
Sell
19900 74.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19900 103.85
42.65
57.35
19857.35
Sell 19800 61.20
Buy 19900 103.85
69.10
130.90
19830.90
Sell
19700 34.75
Buy
19800 61.20
26.45 73.55 19773.55
Sell 19700 34.75
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
7000,000
19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400 20500
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,146 2,161 2,175 2,190 2,205
ADANIPORTS 783 788 796 801 810
APOLLOHOSP 5,429 5,462 5,506 5,538 5,582
ASIANPAINT 3,080 3,102 3,137 3,158 3,193
AXISBANK 991 995 999 1,003 1,007
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,723 5,824 5,884 5,986 6,046
BAJFINANCE 6,993 7,033 7,097 7,137 7,201
BAJAJFINSV 1,610 1,617 1,627 1,634 1,644
BPCL 396 403 408 416 421
BHARTIARTL 956 967 974 984 991
BRITANNIA 4,667 4,686 4,699 4,718 4,731
CIPLA 1,096 1,133 1,202 1,239 1,307
COALINDIA 327 331 334 337 340
DIVISLAB 3,600 3,644 3,685 3,729 3,769
DRREDDY 5,570 5,608 5,646 5,683 5,722
EICHERMOT 3,795 3,840 3,877 3,922 3,959
GRASIM 1,931 1,944 1,964 1,977 1,997
HCLTECH 1,320 1,325 1,330 1,334 1,340
HDFCBANK 1,503 1,512 1,518 1,527 1,533
HDFCLIFE 650 657 667 675 685
HEROMOTOCO 3,365 3,467 3,521 3,623 3,677
HINDALCO 488 495 499 506 510
HINDUNILVR 2,496 2,508 2,518 2,530 2,540
ICICIBANK 915 919 922 926 929
INDUSINDBK 1,458 1,472 1,484 1,498 1,510
INFY 1,435 1,442 1,455 1,462 1,475
ITC 436 438 440 442 444
JSW STEEL 763 769 774 780 784
KOTAKBANK 1,730 1,735 1,742 1,746 1,754
LT 2,998 3,022 3,055 3,079 3,112
LTIMINDTREE 5,360 5,416 5,508 5,564 5,656
M&M 1,521 1,534 1,547 1,560 1,573
MARUTI 10,338 10,413 10,469 10,544 10,600
NESTLEIND 24,206 24,300 24,445 24,538 24,684
NTPC 249 251 253 255 257
ONGC 189 190 191 192 193
POWERGRID 207 209 211 213 215
RELIANCE 2,383 2,389 2,395 2,401 2,406
SBILIFE 1,389 1,400 1,417 1,428 1,445
SBIN 555 558 561 563 566
SUNPHARMA 1,186 1,192 1,201 1,208 1,216
TCS 3,473 3,491 3,517 3,535 3,561
TATACONSUM
922 927 933 938 943
TATAMOTORS 672 676 681 685 690
TATASTEEL 125 126 127 127 128
TECHM 1,199 1,205 1,213 1,219 1,227
TITAN 3,370 3,389 3,416 3,435 3,461
ULTRACEMCO 8,477 8,541 8,654 8,718 8,831
UPL 561 563 568 570 574
WIPRO 398 400 403 405 407
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
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