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450
)
Though the global set-up hinted at a positive start for the broader
indices, the banking index started the weekly expiry session on a flat
to negative note. As the day progressed, fresh selling emerged,
dragging the index below recent lows of 43450, followed by 43200.
With a decent recovery in the latter half, the rate-sensitive index
settled the day around 43450 with a cut of more than half a percent.
As mentioned in our previous commentary, the banking index has
been tepid lately and has been facing significant challenges since the
RBI tightened regulatory norms. Over the past three sessions, the
BankNifty has been vacillating within a narrow range of 500 points,
and yesterday we observed a decline below Monday’s low of 43450.
Currently, the index has approached yet another crucial support, the
200 SMA on the daily chart, situated in the range of 43200-43300. This
level coincides with the 50% retracement of the upmove seen from
42100-44400. With the recovery precisely from this support zone, it
would be interesting to see if we continue to defend the mentioned
range or experience further decline in the coming session. In the case
of any recovery, 43800 would be an important level to watch out for,
while on the downside, the 43200-43000 range would act as an
immediate support zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43200 Resistance 1 – 43800
Support 2 – 43000 Resistance 2 – 44000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
6023
) / Nifty (
1
9
812
)
Trading for the benchmark index began with a flat start. In the initial
hour, there was limited activity, and no significant momentum was
observed. However, as the day unfolded, prices gradually declined,
testing levels around 19700. Seizing the opportunity, bulls stepped in
during the second half, engaging in noteworthy buying. This not only
erased the morning's losses but also resulted in gains of 0.13% to close
a tad above the 19800 mark.
The market session proved to be interesting, with trading swings
occurring on both sides of the trend. While there hasn't been much
change on the daily chart, the buying at lower levels bodes well for the
bulls. Traders, however, remain hesitant around the previous swing
high levels of 19850 - 19900, and to instigate momentum, a convincing
breach of these levels is essential. Surpassing this crucial range could
pave the way for a retest of the psychological 20000 mark and
potentially beyond in the near term. On the downside, 19700
demonstrated its significance in yesterday's session, and any declines
towards this level are likely to attract buyers, especially with the weekly
expiry in mind. This level is followed by robust support in the vicinity of
the bullish gap between 19580 and 19500.
The market currently lacks strong traction, and yesterday's
successful strategy was buying on dips. Traders are advised to
monitor the aforementioned levels and consider adhering to the
strategy of buying on dips during the weekly expiry.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19700 Resistance 1 – 19850
Support 2 – 19580 Resistance 2 – 19900
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The Indian Equity market witnessed a volatile day of
trade, wherein the benchmark index had whipsaw
movements throughout the day and eventually
settled on a positive note, procuring 0.14 percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 307 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 369 cr in Index futures with a marginal
increase in open interest, indicating long formation.
On the derivatives front, we observed mixed bets in
the benchmark ahead of the weekly expiry. On the
options front, significant piling of OI is seen at 19800
PE and 19700 PE, suggesting an upward shift in the
support zone. On the higher end, 19900 CE holds the
highest OI concentration, indicating a nearby
resistance. FIIs added marginal longs in index
futures, advancing the Long Short Ratio to 23% from
21% at the start of the week. Considering the data,
the index is likely to hover within the mentioned
range with a bullish undertone. Hence, it is advisable
to utilize dips to go long in the index.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.41%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
16.76% as the market closed at 19811.85.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
72.25 points against a premium of 57.90 points in the
last trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 181.30 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 12.23 to 11.87. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.02 to 1.07.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are BPCL, BERGEPAINT, AUROPHARMA,
ABB and DALBHARAT.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SBICARD 30.68
ABCAPITAL 39.05
RBLBANK 54.98
SBILIFE 27.28
SBIN 27.55
Nifty Vs OI
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
11-6 11-8 11-10 11-14 11-20 11-22
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BPCL 31320000 13.28 402.10 3.45
BATAINDIA 2452500 13.13 1619.70 1.17
OFSS 403000 12.76 4082.90 -1.70
IEX 64683750 9.99 143.60 1.12
BAJAJ-AUTO 2878000 8.48 5751.60 1.40
ICICIPRULI 9576000 8.46 558.05 0.37
VOLTAS 8878200 7.58 847.90 0.47
IPCALAB 2449200 7.56 1090.20 0.88
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MARUTI 17600 -6.72 10494.55 -0.32
NMDC 92785500 -4.88 171.50 0.70
METROPOLIS 1579600 -4.68 1619.55 -1.02
CHAMBLFERT 13030200 -3.76 312.25 0.66
APOLLOTYRE 12836700 -3.14 420.85 -0.63
DLF 37933500 -3.02 632.55 -0.57
CANFINHOME 3936075 -2.91 766.40 -1.72
BHEL 105215250 -2.84 141.15 1.11
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.07 0.94
BANKNIFTY 0.71 0.93
RELIANCE 0.63 0.53
ICICIBANK 0.54 0.54
INFY 0.62 0.47
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
811
.
85
FII Statistics for
November
2
2
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
3990.62 3622.08 368.54
232176 19078.48 1.81
INDEX
OPTIONS
2852953.46 2876690.01 (23736.55) 3895181 342988.87 (24.71)
STOCK
FUTURES
13609.62 14711.32 (1101.70) 2712523 194756.60 2.00
STOCK
OPTIONS
20831.37 20661.34 170.03
311151 22935.53 (0.42)
Total
2891385.07
2915684.75
(24299.68) 7151031
579759.48
(14.60)
Turnover on
November
2
2
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
356899 26905.04
71.48
Index Options
705401776
52108.61
39.55
Stock Futures
1042375 76801.60
22.02
Stock Options
4817117 3665.97
-9.81
Total
48,17,117
3665.97
32.86
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19700
226.85
72.85 27.15 19772.85
Sell
19800
154.00
Buy
19700 226.85
132.80 67.20 19832.80
Sell
19900 94.05
Buy
19800
154.00
59.95 40.05 19859.95
Sell
19900 94.05
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19900 106.65
40.10
59.90
19859.90
Sell 19800 66.55
Buy 19900 106.65
66.95
133.05
19833.05
Sell
19700 39.70
Buy
19800 66.55
26.85 73.15 19773.15
Sell 19700 39.70
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400 20500
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,112 2,142 2,184 2,214 2,255
ADANIPORTS 779 785 795 802 812
APOLLOHOSP 5,403 5,467 5,504 5,568 5,605
ASIANPAINT 3,101 3,117 3,137 3,153 3,173
AXISBANK 983 991 995 1,003 1,007
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,622 5,687 5,726 5,791 5,830
BAJFINANCE 7,012 7,070 7,124 7,182 7,236
BAJAJFINSV 1,594 1,609 1,617 1,632 1,641
BPCL 387 395 399 406 410
BHARTIARTL 960 965 971 975 981
BRITANNIA 4,640 4,667 4,690 4,717 4,740
CIPLA 1,240 1,256 1,270 1,285 1,299
COALINDIA 325 329 333 337 341
DIVISLAB 3,652 3,677 3,710 3,735 3,769
DRREDDY 5,608 5,636 5,683 5,711 5,758
EICHERMOT 3,782 3,808 3,831 3,857 3,880
GRASIM 1,946 1,960 1,973 1,986 1,999
HCLTECH 1,313 1,321 1,329 1,337 1,344
HDFCBANK 1,496 1,504 1,512 1,521 1,528
HDFCLIFE 660 664 670 674 680
HEROMOTOCO 3,344 3,379 3,403 3,438 3,462
HINDALCO 494 497 502 505 510
HINDUNILVR 2,496 2,509 2,517 2,529 2,537
ICICIBANK 910 917 921 927 931
INDUSINDBK 1,432 1,451 1,478 1,498 1,525
INFY 1,428 1,443 1,451 1,466 1,474
ITC 433 436 438 442 444
JSW STEEL 759 764 770 775 781
KOTAKBANK 1,723 1,734 1,749 1,760 1,774
LT 3,052 3,067 3,078 3,093 3,104
LTIMINDTREE 5,474 5,514 5,545 5,585 5,616
M&M 1,518 1,531 1,548 1,560 1,577
MARUTI 10,357 10,426 10,489 10,557 10,620
NESTLEIND 24,117 24,234 24,377 24,494 24,637
NTPC 248 251 252 255 257
ONGC 189 190 191 192 193
POWERGRID 206 209 211 213 215
RELIANCE 2,363 2,375 2,385 2,398 2,407
SBILIFE 1,407 1,419 1,429 1,440 1,450
SBIN 550 555 560 564 569
SUNPHARMA 1,190 1,197 1,206 1,213 1,222
TCS 3,463 3,497 3,515 3,548 3,566
TATACONSUM
913 920 930 938 948
TATAMOTORS 670 676 682 687 693
TATASTEEL 125 125 126 127 128
TECHM 1,198 1,207 1,212 1,221 1,226
TITAN 3,381 3,406 3,420 3,445 3,459
ULTRACEMCO 8,553 8,656 8,716 8,819 8,878
UPL 560 563 566 569 573
WIPRO 397 399 401 402 404
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
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