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8
Nifty Bank Outlook (
4
3
689
)
The trading day kicked off on a positive note, mirroring the benchmark
index. However, the optimism was short-lived as the banking index
struggled to hold its morning gains. Despite attempting a recovery
around the mid session, it remained tentative in the vicinity of 43700
- 43800. With no major action, BankNifty managed to end the day with
a modest gain of two-tenths of a percent compared to the previous
close.
From a technical standpoint, nothing much has changed as the
banking index has been vacillating in a range of merely 500 points
since the last three sessions. Until we observe a sustainable move
beyond 44000, followed by 44400, the market is likely to consolidate.
This zone also coincides with the 89-EMA on the daily chart, situated
around the 44000 mark, adding significance to this zone for the near
term. Market participants should remain watchful for potential
catalysts / developments that could influence market dynamics in the
upcoming sessions. As far as supports are concerned, 43600-43400 are
likely to provide an immediate cushion.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43600 Resistance 1 – 43850
Support 2 – 43400 Resistance 2 – 44000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
5
931
) / Nifty (
1
9
783
)
Following the optimistic trend set by GIFT Nifty, the Nifty benchmark
index kicked off the session on a positive note with a gap-up opening.
Throughout the first half, prices continued their upward momentum
gradually. However, in the penultimate hour, a sudden bout of profit
booking occurred, causing prices to hover tentatively at higher levels,
eventually concluding with a gain of 0.45%, a tad below the 19800
mark.
Although the session favored the bulls, intra-day traders found it
challenging to capitalize, mainly due to the major move prompted by
the gap-up, and post-opening prices witnessing choppy moves within a
defined range. Trading activity within the key indices remained
lackluster, with the Nifty benchmark index persistently consolidating
within Thursday's trading range for the third consecutive session. After
the carnage seen during the October month, prices have smartly
rebounded in November, however, as they approach the origin point
of the October sell-off, the traders have become hesitant around the
higher levels. The critical obstacle continues to be observed in the
range of 19850 - 19900, beyond which positive momentum may be
triggered. Conversely, 19580 - 19500 stands as a robust support zone,
with immediate support around 19700. Dips toward these crucial levels
are likely to attract buyers, allowing traders to adhere to a "buy on dip"
strategy.
Despite a lack of noteworthy action in index-specific trades, traders
appear to be directing their attention toward stock-specific trades,
particularly as the Mid-cap Index extends its upward movement into
uncharted territory. However, it's worth noting that even stock-
specific movements haven't been particularly captivating,
emphasizing the importance of a highly selective approach in this
space as well.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19700 Resistance 1 – 19850
Support 2 – 19580 Resistance 2 – 19900
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The Indian Equity market witnessed a strong day of
trade, wherein the benchmark index started the day
on a positive note and maintained its stature
throughout. Eventually, it settled a tad below 19800,
procuring 0.45 percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 456 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 668 cr in Index futures with a negligible
increase in open interest.
On the derivatives front, we observed mixed trades
in key indices. On the options front, decent piling of
OI is seen at 19700 PE and 19800 PE, suggesting an
upward shift in the support zone. On the higher end,
19800-19900 CE holds significant OI concentration,
indicating a nearby resistance. FIIs added marginal
longs in index futures, resulting in a marginal
increase in the Long Short Ratio to 21% from 20%.
Considering the data, the index is likely to hover
within the mentioned range with a bullish
undertone. Hence, it is advisable to avoid
complacency and utilize dips to go long in the index.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.09%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
6.43% as the market closed at 19783.40.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
57.90 points against a premium of 57.20 points in the
last trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 169.15 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 12.15 to 12.23. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from 0.91
to 1.02.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are ASHOKLEY, OBEROIRLTY, SBILIFE, MFSL
and AUROPHARMA.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SBICARD 30.75
ABCAPITAL 39.15
RBLBANK 55.12
SBILIFE 27.34
SBIN 27.61
Nifty Vs OI
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
11-3 11-7 11-9 11-13 11-17 11-21
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IEX 58807500 12.55 141.85 3.08
IRCTC 14341250 9.68 708.95 0.93
INDIAMART 1129200 9.55 2593.40 -1.29
CONCOR 6669000 8.49 749.35 -0.11
SBILIFE 7080750 7.66 1423.65 2.53
VOLTAS 8252400 7.49 843.65 1.78
OBEROIRLTY 7835100 6.33 1406.60 3.90
AUROPHARMA 19457900 5.57 1027.25 2.90
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
LTTS 17600 -8.51 4596.50 1.31
BHEL 108291750 -7.61 139.60 -0.89
ASHOKLEY 77995000 -7.23 178.05 3.42
CHAMBLFERT 13539400 -6.40 310.60 1.98
NMDC 97542000 -6.11 169.70 -0.50
CUB 35875000 -3.38 151.00 0.20
ESCORTS 1829850 -3.06 3261.60 1.27
RECLTD 51434000 -2.99 339.10 -1.90
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.02 0.87
BANKNIFTY 0.69 0.92
RELIANCE 0.63 0.48
ICICIBANK 0.52 0.44
INFY 0.54 0.50
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
783
.
4
0
FII Statistics for
November
2
1
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2414.97 1746.77 668.20
228049 18844.31 0.41
INDEX
OPTIONS
1600128.24 1617347.58 (17219.34) 5173414 415169.06 0.06
STOCK
FUTURES
12689.02 10402.67 2286.35
2659300 191046.95 0.79
STOCK
OPTIONS
18387.37 18119.92 267.45
312454 23046.59 1.97
Total
1633619.60
1647616.94
(13997.34) 8373217
648106.91
0.37
Turnover on
November
2
1
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
195063 15690.16
-2.08
Index Options
384246908
37341.45
-13.71
Stock Futures
840780 62941.97
6.85
Stock Options
4668798 4064.93
-3.94
Total
46,68,798
4064.93
-1.96
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19700
207.55
66.05 33.95 19766.05
Sell
19800
141.50
Buy
19700 207.55
118.75 81.25 19818.75
Sell
19900 88.80
Buy
19800
141.50
52.70 47.30 19852.70
Sell
19900 88.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19900 142.40
46.60
53.40
19853.40
Sell 19800 95.80
Buy 19900 142.40
80.30
119.70
19819.70
Sell
19700 62.10
Buy
19800 95.80
33.70 66.30 19766.30
Sell 19700 62.10
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300 20400 20500
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,122 2,159 2,196 2,233 2,270
ADANIPORTS 790 795 805 811 821
APOLLOHOSP 5,372 5,419 5,470 5,517 5,568
ASIANPAINT 3,109 3,121 3,139 3,151 3,169
AXISBANK 981 986 992 997 1,003
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,610 5,648 5,678 5,716 5,745
BAJFINANCE 6,988 7,046 7,087 7,145 7,186
BAJAJFINSV 1,584 1,597 1,607 1,620 1,630
BPCL 383 385 389 392 396
BHARTIARTL 954 962 969 978 985
BRITANNIA 4,633 4,667 4,698 4,732 4,763
CIPLA 1,237 1,245 1,250 1,258 1,263
COALINDIA 324 329 334 339 344
DIVISLAB 3,623 3,672 3,703 3,753 3,784
DRREDDY 5,570 5,608 5,644 5,682 5,717
EICHERMOT 3,806 3,825 3,845 3,865 3,885
GRASIM 1,959 1,968 1,978 1,987 1,997
HCLTECH 1,314 1,320 1,328 1,334 1,342
HDFCBANK 1,507 1,513 1,517 1,523 1,527
HDFCLIFE 647 657 665 675 683
HEROMOTOCO 3,302 3,339 3,367 3,404 3,432
HINDALCO 498 502 507 511 516
HINDUNILVR 2,488 2,497 2,507 2,516 2,526
ICICIBANK 919 923 925 929 931
INDUSINDBK 1,488 1,495 1,501 1,508 1,515
INFY 1,429 1,434 1,442 1,447 1,455
ITC 433 435 437 439 441
JSW STEEL 760 768 774 782 787
KOTAKBANK 1,751 1,759 1,769 1,777 1,787
LT 3,042 3,059 3,079 3,095 3,115
LTIMINDTREE 5,445 5,483 5,547 5,585 5,649
M&M 1,538 1,549 1,560 1,571 1,582
MARUTI 10,432 10,484 10,551 10,603 10,670
NESTLEIND 24,085 24,229 24,325 24,469 24,564
NTPC 245 247 250 253 256
ONGC 189 190 192 193 195
POWERGRID 207 208 209 210 211
RELIANCE 2,348 2,363 2,376 2,391 2,404
SBILIFE 1,374 1,399 1,412 1,437 1,450
SBIN 557 559 563 565 569
SUNPHARMA 1,179 1,190 1,198 1,209 1,216
TCS 3,479 3,494 3,517 3,533 3,555
TATACONSUM
896 912 922 937 947
TATAMOTORS 672 677 680 685 688
TATASTEEL 124 125 126 127 127
TECHM 1,188 1,196 1,209 1,217 1,229
TITAN 3,337 3,366 3,384 3,412 3,430
ULTRACEMCO 8,631 8,669 8,704 8,743 8,777
UPL 554 558 561 566 569
WIPRO 399 400 401 402 404
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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