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The banking sector experienced a disappointing week, marked by
underperformance compared to other heavily weighted sectors.
Banking conglomerates exhibited hesitancy at higher levels, resulting
in the high beta index concluding the week with a cut of around 0.94%,
ending a tad below 43600. The weekly winning streak for the bank
index came to an end, acting as a dampener on recent optimism. The
chart, following a decline over the last two days, no longer appears
favorable from a bullish perspective. Prices encountered resistance
around a crucial retracement level at 44400, and a failure to break this
level soon could lead to the formation of a lower top. This level
coincides with a bearish gap observed on Friday, adjacent to
Wednesday's bullish gap, forming a bearish 'Island Reversal Gap.'
Therefore, until the 44400 level is sustainably breached, any upward
move is likely to face selling pressure, while surpassing this mark could
trigger a broader upward trend. Conversely, the ongoing price
correction may persist in the near term, with the next support
anticipated in the 43250 to 43000 range. Although the PSU bank index
initially showed strength during the week, it eventually succumbed to
pressure. Traders are hence advised to exercise caution and selectivity
in the near term, given the likelihood of ongoing uncertainty.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43250 Resistance 1 – 44000
Support 2 – 43000 Resistance 2 – 44200
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
5
795
) / Nifty (
1
9
7
32
)
The Samvat 2080 had a positive start for our equity market, wherein
the improved global sentiments provided the much-needed impetus to
trigger momentum into the ongoing boredom. The benchmark index
Nifty50 soared over a percent to continue its winning spree for the third
consecutive week and, importantly, eloped above the descending
trendline, which was a daunting task in the recent period. Eventually,
the truncated yet eventful week concluded on a cheerful note, with
Nifty reclaiming the zone of 19700.
Technically speaking, the recent developments construe a robust setup
on the price charts for Nifty, and as we move ahead, it is anticipated to
have a follow-up move. Also, the breakout of the sloping trendline and
the re-testing of the swing high portrays the bullish undertone. But at
the same time, one should avoid complacency and maintain a
pragmatic approach as the high-beta Bank index, which is also the
major contributor to Nifty, still struggles to keep up the momentum.
On the technical levels front, the 19650-19620 zone is likely to cushion
short-term blips while the sacrosanct support shifts to the bullish gap
of 19580-19500. On the higher end, 19850-19900 holds intermediate
resistance and a decisive move beyond could trigger the next leg of rally
to test the ATH zone in the comparable period.
At the current juncture, till the time we do not get convinced with
the direction, we will use one step at a time approach. Also, one must
closely watch global developments alongside the domestic overview
for the immediate trend setup. Simultaneously, we expect strong
moves in the broader market; hence, one needs to have a stock-
centric approach for better trading opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19650 Resistance 1 – 19850
Support 2 – 19580 Resistance 2 – 19900
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The Indian Equity market witnessed a volatile weekly
week. The improved global sentiments helped to
push the index beyond 19700 on a weekly basis.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 478 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 638 cr in Index futures with a decrease in
open interest, indicating long unwinding on Friday.
On the derivatives front, we observed the addition of
some fresh longs in Nifty during the week, whereas
the banking index underperformed with a decline in
open interest. On the options front, for the coming
weekly series highest open interest concentration is
visible at 19700 put and 19900 call options. FIIs
turned net sellers in equities and unwounded longs
in index futures on Friday. On a net basis, FIIs
curtailed short positions; Long Short Ratio slightly
improved to 21% from 18% WoW. For now, any
move beyond the resistance zone of 19850-19900
shall be an encouraging sign and on the downside,
19600-19650 remains an immediate support zone.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.58%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
10.33% as the market closed at 19731.80.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
74.70 points against a premium of 47.85 points in the
last trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 185.90 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 11.65 to 11.83. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.16
to 1.02.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are ZEEL, TATACONSUM, NAUKRI,
METROPOLIS and MPHASIS.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SBICARD 30.72
ABCAPITAL 39.34
RBLBANK 55.15
SBILIFE 27.09
SBIN 27.74
Nifty Vs OI
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
11-1 11-3 11-7 11-9 11-13 11-17
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SBICARD 17004800 54.19 732.75 -6.12
RBLBANK 63465000 41.82 234.80 -7.65
SBIN 117478500 39.02 563.05 -3.67
ABCAPITAL 58935600 20.01 170.95 -5.85
EXIDEIND 17992800 14.45 281.10 3.37
IDFCFIRSTB 305160000 13.50 85.10 -3.69
SBILIFE 6858000 10.21 1413.95 3.93
MRF 44185 10.13 111474.25 1.08
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ICICIPRULI 17600 -10.11 559.85 2.13
ABB 1338250 -10.11 4285.05 1.35
RAMCOCEM 3337950 -9.56 1006.55 0.66
MANAPPURAM 72840000 -7.66 154.95 -4.02
IOC 150588750 -7.28 102.70 -1.39
BOSCHLTD 149050 -6.32 20651.80 0.27
INDIACEM 26749600 -5.72 217.95 -0.82
AUBANK 14702000 -5.30 730.20 0.25
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.02 0.90
BANKNIFTY 0.64 0.90
RELIANCE 0.62 0.62
ICICIBANK 0.52 0.55
INFY 0.58 0.54
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
7
31.8
0
FII Statistics for
November
1
7
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2739.79 3377.79 (638.00) 231892 19173.93 (0.41)
INDEX
OPTIONS
1080306.69 1089976.99 (9670.30) 5090425 406882.60 58.24
STOCK
FUTURES
16214.29 14851.63 1362.66
2631766 188987.86 1.40
STOCK
OPTIONS
22986.65 23480.51 (493.86) 301666 22069.30 5.00
Total
1122247.42
1131686.92
(9439.50) 8255749
637113.69
30.37
Turnover on
November
1
7
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
289193 24292.86
-16.68
Index Options
456509433
50948.46
24.39
Stock Futures
1053737 77953.63
-1.65
Stock Options
6045359 6144.67
9.53
Total
60,45,359
6144.67
2.81
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19800
205.15
59.00
41.00
19859.00
Sell
19900
146.15
Buy
19800 205.15
107.45
92.55
19907.45
Sell
20000 97.70
Buy
19900
146.15
48.45 51.55 19948.45
Sell
20000 97.70
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19700 94.80
30.35
69.65
19669.65
Sell 19600 64.45
Buy 19700 94.80
50.60
149.40
19649.40
Sell
19500 44.20
Buy
19600 64.45
20.25 79.75 19579.75
Sell 19500 44.20
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100 20200 20300
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,179 2,194 2,216 2,231 2,253
ADANIPORTS 801 805 814 818 827
APOLLOHOSP 5,239 5,359 5,426 5,546 5,613
ASIANPAINT 3,098 3,134 3,181 3,216 3,264
AXISBANK 974 984 1,002 1,012 1,030
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,400 5,516 5,595 5,711 5,791
BAJFINANCE 7,044 7,133 7,196 7,285 7,348
BAJAJFINSV 1,567 1,591 1,606 1,631 1,645
BPCL 378 384 396 402 413
BHARTIARTL 941 944 949 952 957
BRITANNIA 4,663 4,690 4,718 4,746 4,774
CIPLA 1,226 1,238 1,247 1,259 1,268
COALINDIA 339 342 345 348 352
DIVISLAB 3,521 3,561 3,590 3,630 3,659
DRREDDY 5,504 5,558 5,599 5,652 5,693
EICHERMOT 3,779 3,822 3,860 3,903 3,941
GRASIM 1,922 1,946 1,965 1,989 2,008
HCLTECH 1,294 1,302 1,314 1,321 1,333
HDFCBANK 1,482 1,494 1,501 1,512 1,519
HDFCLIFE 620 636 648 664 676
HEROMOTOCO 3,239 3,287 3,328 3,376 3,417
HINDALCO 491 494 500 504 510
HINDUNILVR 2,441 2,485 2,509 2,553 2,578
ICICIBANK 909 915 927 933 945
INDUSINDBK 1,474 1,486 1,498 1,510 1,521
INFY 1,425 1,431 1,441 1,447 1,457
ITC 436 438 440 441 443
JSW STEEL 761 765 770 774 779
KOTAKBANK 1,744 1,755 1,769 1,779 1,794
LT 3,020 3,064 3,090 3,135 3,160
LTIMINDTREE 5,456 5,487 5,518 5,549 5,579
M&M 1,561 1,573 1,584 1,596 1,608
MARUTI 10,436 10,480 10,543 10,587 10,651
NESTLEIND 23,887 24,130 24,308 24,550 24,728
NTPC 250 251 252 253 254
ONGC 192 194 198 200 203
POWERGRID 205 207 209 211 213
RELIANCE 2,339 2,347 2,360 2,369 2,381
SBILIFE 1,320 1,367 1,401 1,448 1,481
SBIN 554 559 567 571 579
SUNPHARMA 1,183 1,189 1,194 1,199 1,204
TCS 3,475 3,489 3,507 3,520 3,538
TATACONSUM
916 923 929 936 942
TATAMOTORS 675 678 683 686 691
TATASTEEL 124 124 125 126 127
TECHM 1,189 1,196 1,205 1,212 1,221
TITAN 3,305 3,322 3,344 3,361 3,383
ULTRACEMCO 8,713 8,752 8,811 8,850 8,909
UPL 555 558 562 565 569
WIPRO 392 394 396 398 401
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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