Technical and Derivatives Reports - November 13, 2023

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November

, 2023

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Technical &

Derivatives Report

Nifty Bank Outlook (

820

)

The banking index witnessed a very choppy trading week. The index

witnessed buying at the lower levels but remained tentative in the

range of 43700-43900. On Friday, we witnessed smart buying

throughout the day, especially in the final hour, to reclaim 43800 on

closing. With merely 650 points of the trading range, the index ended

the second consecutive week in green with gains of over a percentage.

The high beta index has recently been among the top

underperformers. Throughout the week, we observed some

tentativeness around the crucial resistance zone between 43700 and

43900. This zone also aligns with the 61.8% retracement level from the

recent decline, which originated around the 44700 mark. With Friday’s

recovery, it would be interesting to see a follow-up move in this week.

We believe any sustainable move beyond 44000, followed by 44300,

would signal the conclusion of the corrective phase and bring back the

missing momentum in this space.

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart

Sensex (

905

) / Nifty (

425

)

The Nifty benchmark index experienced a subdued week that initially

started with robust gap-up opening. However, as the week progressed,

there was lack of sustained trading momentum, resulting in choppy

price movements within a 150-point range throughout the week.

Eventually, the week concluded with gains of around a percent,

reclaiming the 19400 level on a weekly basis.

In the last two weeks of November, the bulls staged a notable

comeback, leading to consistent gains in the benchmark. However,

prices now seem to be losing steam as prices have approached a crucial

resistance zone, and the same is evident in the formation of small-

bodied candles on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, despite the

recovery in the past two weeks, prices still remain within the trading

range of big bearish candle from the last week of October. The current

price level has reached a key resistance zone between 19460 and

19500, marked by the 61.8% retracement level, which holds technical

significance. This zone previously acted as a formidable hurdle during

the last bounce-back. Consequently, the prices have reached a pivotal

juncture, and the next directional move hinges on how they respond to

this zone. A sustained breakout above this level could propel prices

toward the descending trend line resistance around 19600 and then

towards the previous swing high of 19850. Conversely, a failure to

breach this hurdle might trigger a sell-off, causing prices to first retest

the bullish gap created this week around the 19300 - 19270 zone and

then further lower.

Given the festive and truncated trading week, consolidation is likely

to continue, and traders are advised to closely monitor the

aforementioned levels for informed trading decisions. Despite the

overall choppiness in key indices, individual counters displayed more

stable movements. Toward the end of the week, activity within this

space dwindled, prompting traders focused on stock-specific trades

to adopt a highly selective approach.

Key Levels

Support 1 – 19300 Resistance 1 – 19540

Support 2 – 19200 Resistance 2 – 19600

Until then one should strictly follow one step at a time approach. As

far as supports are concerned, 43400 - 43200 are to be considered

as immediate supports.

Key Levels

Support 1 – 43400 Resistance 1 – 44000

Support 2 – 43200 Resistance 2 – 44300

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View

 The Indian Equity market witnessed a lackluster

week of trade, wherein the benchmark index Nifty50

managed to surge consecutively for the second week

to reclaim 19400.

 FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to

the tune of Rs. 262 cr. Simultaneously, they sold

worth Rs. 378 cr in Index futures with a decrease in

open interest, indicating long unwinding.

 On the derivatives front, there has been no

significant change in Nifty, while long addition was

seen in Bank Nifty on a weekly basis. On the options

front, decent piling is seen at 19400-19300 put

strikes, indicating an upshift in support. On the

higher end, the highest OI concentration is seen at

19500 call strike, indicating a stiff hurdle for the

upcoming week. FIIs witnessed a mixed bag of trades

in index futures segments throughout the week

resulting in no alterations in the Long Short Ratio at

18% WoW. Considering the recent data, our market

seems slightly tentative as it reached pivotal

resistance, hence, one needs to maintain caution

and follow a stock-centric approach until sustainable

strength returns to the market.

Comments

 The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.12%

and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by

2.07% as the market closed at 19425.35.

 The Nifty November future closed with a premium of

57.30 points against a premium of 89.30 points in the

last trading session. The December series closed at a

premium of 156.70 points.

 The INDIA VIX has increased from 10.98 to 11.11. At the

same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from 0.90

to 1.04.

 A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high

cost of carry are MCDOWELL-N, MUTHOOTFIN, ZEEL,

RAMCOCEM and MCX.

Historical Volatility

SCRIP HV

ADANIENT 72.61

IDEA 66.05

IBULHSGFIN 62.26

DELTACORP 60.44

RBLBANK 54.54

Nifty Vs OI

18400

18600

18800

19000

19200

19400

19600

19800

20000

20200

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

10-27 10-31 11-2 11-6 11-8 11-10

Openinterest Nifty

OI Gainers

SCRIP OI

CHG. (%)

PRICE

CHG. (%)

MUTHOOTFIN 6625300 24.34 1273.25 -4.69

ALKEM 950800 13.79 4306.35 0.45

ZEEL 107883000 10.72 248.95 -5.16

VEDL 83170800 9.58 245.25 4.23

TATACONSUM 9568800 8.03 912.70 1.01

AUROPHARMA 18603200 7.97 979.70 3.06

NTPC 81432000 7.89 242.75 1.84

M&M 15375850 7.70 1524.10 -1.52

OI Losers

SCRIP OI

CHG. (%)

PRICE

CHG. (%)

MCX 17600 -14.89 2604.15 2.95

PIIND 2363000 -10.75 3687.35 1.05

BSOFT 6709000 -9.63 583.40 -0.15

ABB 1609125 -8.14 4239.30 -1.58

ABFRL 30768400 -6.35 216.60 1.40

CHAMBLFERT 17333700 -6.14 307.80 0.12

APOLLOHOSP 2375125 -6.02 5278.50 -0.68

PAGEIND 123945 -5.36 38360.15 1.79

Put-Call Ratio

SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)

NIFTY 1.04 0.82

BANKNIFTY 1.01 0.83

RELIANCE 0.55 0.54

ICICIBANK 0.62 0.50

INFY 0.45 0.49

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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.

*Report as per Friday, 10

November 2023 closing.

Nifty Spot =

425

FII Statistics for

November

, 2023

Detail Buy

Contracts

OI Value

(in Cr.)

Sell Net

CHANGE

INDEX

FUTURES

2406.60 2784.30 (377.70) 242400 19863.29 (2.11)

INDEX

OPTIONS

879041.22 881921.15 (2879.93) 3774102 305208.94 18.65

STOCK

FUTURES

11259.06 11401.51 (142.45) 2585276 182362.55 (0.26)

STOCK

OPTIONS

14093.40 14015.38 78.02

234159 16743.20 5.00

Total

906800.28

910122.34

(3322.06) 6835937

524177.98

9.49

Turnover on

November

, 2023

Instrument

No. of

Contracts

Turnover

(in Cr.)

Change

(%)

Index Futures

255890 20169.42

11.70

Index Options

164729707

34928.55

-16.89

Stock Futures

816080 58284.80

-10.55

Stock Options

3865824 4191.68

-9.71

Total

38,65,824

4191.68

-9.48

Bull-Call Spreads

Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP

Buy

19300

273.20 65.20

34.80

19365.20

Sell

19400

208.00

Buy

19300 273.20 120.95

79.05

19420.95

Sell

19500 152.25

Buy

19400

208.00 55.75 44.25 19455.75

Sell

19500 152.25

Bear-Put Spreads

Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP

Buy

19500 171.45

43.25

56.75

19456.75

Sell 19400 128.20

Buy 19500 171.45

76.35

123.65

19423.65

Sell

19300 95.10

Buy

19400 128.20

33.10 66.90 19366.90

Sell 19300 95.10

Nifty Put

Call Analysis

500,000

1000,000

1500,000

2000,000

2500,000

3000,000

3500,000

4000,000

4500,000

5000,000

18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100

Call Put

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Technical & Derivatives Report

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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents

Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2

ADANIENT 2,175 2,190 2,214 2,229 2,252

ADANIPORTS 799 804 811 816 824

APOLLOHOSP 5,159 5,219 5,278 5,338 5,398

ASIANPAINT 3,022 3,049 3,067 3,094 3,112

AXISBANK 1,011 1,020 1,026 1,035 1,040

BAJAJ-AUTO 5,311 5,352 5,389 5,430 5,467

BAJFINANCE 7,308 7,376 7,415 7,484 7,523

BAJAJFINSV 1,563 1,580 1,589 1,606 1,615

BPCL 378 381 384 387 389

BHARTIARTL 926 931 934 939 942

BRITANNIA 4,598 4,640 4,663 4,705 4,728

CIPLA 1,225 1,233 1,237 1,245 1,249

COALINDIA 319 321 324 326 328

DIVISLAB 3,461 3,477 3,488 3,504 3,515

DRREDDY 5,337 5,381 5,416 5,460 5,495

EICHERMOT 3,473 3,507 3,536 3,570 3,599

GRASIM 1,911 1,927 1,937 1,953 1,964

HCLTECH 1,239 1,247 1,259 1,267 1,279

HDFCBANK 1,473 1,482 1,489 1,498 1,505

HDFCLIFE 615 621 626 632 638

HEROMOTOCO 3,043 3,074 3,126 3,158 3,210

HINDALCO 474 478 483 487 492

HINDUNILVR 2,457 2,472 2,480 2,495 2,503

ICICIBANK 928 934 937 943 947

INDUSINDBK 1,484 1,491 1,500 1,508 1,517

INFY 1,356 1,362 1,368 1,374 1,380

ITC 430 433 436 439 441

JSW STEEL 739 747 753 761 767

KOTAKBANK 1,728 1,737 1,743 1,752 1,758

LT 2,989 3,011 3,028 3,050 3,066

LTIMINDTREE 5,144 5,203 5,241 5,301 5,339

M&M 1,494 1,509 1,530 1,545 1,566

MARUTI 10,279 10,334 10,375 10,430 10,471

NESTLEIND 23,954 24,045 24,147 24,239 24,341

NTPC 233 238 241 245 248

ONGC 191 194 195 197 199

POWERGRID 208 210 211 213 215

RELIANCE 2,291 2,303 2,310 2,321 2,328

SBILIFE 1,333 1,344 1,352 1,363 1,371

SBIN 573 576 579 582 584

SUNPHARMA 1,166 1,172 1,177 1,184 1,188

TCS 3,309 3,321 3,334 3,346 3,360

TATACONSUM

888 901 909 921 929

TATAMOTORS 640 646 649 655 658

TATASTEEL 118 119 120 121 121

TECHM 1,115 1,127 1,133 1,145 1,151

TITAN 3,199 3,228 3,251 3,280 3,303

ULTRACEMCO 8,535 8,623 8,676 8,764 8,818

UPL 542 545 548 550 553

WIPRO 375 377 379 382 384

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Technical and Derivatives Team:

Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in

For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

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