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8
Nifty Bank Outlook (
4
3
6
84
)
Unlike the benchmark index, trading for the banking index started
slightly lower. After few initial trades, the buying emerged in few
heavyweights to head towards 43900. However, there was no follow
up during remaining part of the session. A gentle decline in the latter
half led BANKNIFTY conclude with marginal gains a tad below the
43700 mark.
Recently, the trading range has been shrinking and it seems the
market is certainly awaiting some catalyst to spark some momentum.
The index has been oscillating in the range of hardly 600 points in the
last four trading sessions. We are still of the opinion that until we don't
see a convincing move beyond 44000, followed by 44300, we are not
completely out of the woods. Any trend reversal is always supported
by a strong V-shaped recovery, which is certainly missing lately. As far
as levels are concerned, 43800-44000 remains an immediate hurdles;
whereas the support levels to watch are 43400 and 43200.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43400 Resistance 1 – 43800
Support 2 – 43200 Resistance 2 – 44000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
4
832
) / Nifty (
1
9
395
)
The Nifty index began the weekly expiry day on a neutral footing,
mirroring the previous day's sideways consolidation pattern.
Subsequently, Prices remained tentative at higher levels and dipped
below 19400 during the second half to close below it ending with a loss
of 0.25%.
Despite several attempts to break above the 19460 hurdle,
representing the 61.8% retracement level, prices remained hesitant on
the weekly expiry day. If prices continue to trade uncertainly around
this key level, then we may see a decline to test lower levels in the near
term. However, for the coming session, we anticipate that
consolidation may continue ahead of the Diwali Muhurat trading
session, with prices to see support around 19300 and resistance around
19460 levels. Beyond these levels, momentum could kick in, with 19200
on the downside and 19600 on the upside being the next levels to
watch. Traders should monitor these levels closely and trade
accordingly on the last day of the trading week.
Unlike the previous few sessions, individual stock movements were
relatively muted yesterday. Therefore, traders are advised to be highly
selective in their stock-specific trades moving forward.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19300 Resistance 1 – 19460
Support 2 – 19200 Resistance 2 – 19600
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The Indian Equity market witnessed a choppy session
on the weekly expiry, wherein the benchmark index
Nifty50 remained tentative at the higher grounds
and eventually settled a tad below the 19400 zone.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 1712 cr. Simultaneously, they sold
worth Rs. 15 cr in Index futures with a negligible fall
in open interest.
On the derivatives front, there have been
insignificant changes in the key indices. On the
options front, put writers have scattered positioning
of OI from 19400-19200 strikes. On the higher end,
the 19500-call strike withholds the highest OI
concentration, suggesting a stiff resistance. The Long
Short Ratio remains unchanged at 19%. Considering
the recent developments, our market seems
tentative and, hence, would advocate traders to
maintain caution for the time being and refrain from
carrying any aggressive overnight trades.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.21%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by
2.28% as the market closed at 19395.30.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
89.30 points against a premium of 47.35 points in the
last trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 193.35 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 11.04 to 10.98. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
0.98 to 0.90.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are M&M, METROPOLIS, MCX, PFC and
APOLLOHOSP.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ADANIENT 72.79
IDEA 66.17
IBULHSGFIN 62.41
DELTACORP 60.58
RBLBANK 54.68
Nifty Vs OI
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
10-26 10-30 11-1 11-3 11-7 11-9
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
RAMCOCEM 4350300 31.00 1022.20 1.36
LUPIN 10041900 10.68 1204.55 -0.46
CHAMBLFERT 18468000 9.78 307.25 2.09
LALPATHLAB 1025400 9.34 2732.55 1.60
INFY 24115600 9.05 1374.80 -0.88
ASHOKLEY 77355000 8.90 170.40 -1.78
IPCALAB 2419950 8.29 1046.40 -0.75
TECHM 15100800 8.22 1123.95 -1.24
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
PAGEIND 17600 -12.22 37686.10 -0.29
MCDOWELL-N 9466100 -7.63 1097.10 -0.54
M&M 14276150 -7.04 1552.05 4.00
BSOFT 7424000 -5.98 583.00 0.45
DLF 36336300 -5.64 600.70 0.55
COROMANDEL 1597400 -5.27 1109.10 0.49
PIDILITIND 2628750 -5.22 2457.55 -0.30
BATAINDIA 2278875 -5.21 1572.05 1.98
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 0.90 1.00
BANKNIFTY 0.99 0.84
RELIANCE 0.55 0.57
ICICIBANK 0.62 0.43
INFY 0.46 0.61
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
395
.
3
0
FII Statistics for
November
0
9
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
1924.73 1940.06 (15.33) 247617 20207.23 (0.13)
INDEX
OPTIONS
1710003.36 1755081.19 (45077.83) 3180919 254537.97 (14.87)
STOCK
FUTURES
13147.30 14123.07 (975.77) 2591892 182739.58 0.25
STOCK
OPTIONS
15126.44 15394.13 (267.69) 223004 15945.03 5.82
Total
1740201.83
1786538.45
(46336.62) 6243432
473429.81
(7.92)
Turnover on
November
0
9
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
231119 18056.62
1.65
Index Options
375920092
42028.04
-13.30
Stock Futures
897023 65162.20
13.71
Stock Options
4050603 4642.59
10.50
Total
40,50,603 4642.59
1.68
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19300
287.10 65.50
34.50
19365.50
Sell
19400
221.60
Buy
19300 287.10 123.55
76.45
19423.55
Sell
19500 163.55
Buy
19400
221.60 58.05 41.95 19458.05
Sell
19500 163.55
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19500 175.95
42.25
57.75
19457.75
Sell 19400 133.70
Buy 19500 175.95
76.05
123.95
19423.95
Sell
19300 99.90
Buy
19400 133.70
33.80 66.20 19366.20
Sell 19300 99.90
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,170 2,192 2,232 2,255 2,295
ADANIPORTS 781 794 811 823 840
APOLLOHOSP 5,053 5,175 5,244 5,366 5,435
ASIANPAINT 3,051 3,066 3,089 3,103 3,126
AXISBANK 1,010 1,016 1,022 1,028 1,035
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,346 5,382 5,419 5,455 5,492
BAJFINANCE 7,295 7,341 7,413 7,459 7,531
BAJAJFINSV 1,560 1,571 1,580 1,591 1,600
BPCL 378 381 386 389 394
BHARTIARTL 927 930 933 936 940
BRITANNIA 4,601 4,627 4,656 4,682 4,711
CIPLA 1,225 1,232 1,238 1,245 1,251
COALINDIA 312 318 321 327 330
DIVISLAB 3,448 3,473 3,497 3,522 3,545
DRREDDY 5,407 5,432 5,466 5,491 5,525
EICHERMOT 3,485 3,513 3,555 3,584 3,625
GRASIM 1,922 1,928 1,937 1,943 1,951
HCLTECH 1,254 1,261 1,268 1,275 1,282
HDFCBANK 1,478 1,482 1,487 1,491 1,496
HDFCLIFE 608 615 620 627 632
HEROMOTOCO 3,107 3,141 3,168 3,202 3,229
HINDALCO 480 482 485 488 491
HINDUNILVR 2,442 2,459 2,491 2,508 2,540
ICICIBANK 928 933 938 942 947
INDUSINDBK 1,471 1,489 1,503 1,521 1,534
INFY 1,353 1,364 1,381 1,392 1,408
ITC 431 433 435 437 440
JSW STEEL 742 747 753 757 764
KOTAKBANK 1,729 1,737 1,747 1,755 1,765
LT 2,985 3,005 3,017 3,037 3,049
LTIMINDTREE 5,186 5,220 5,243 5,277 5,299
M&M 1,461 1,507 1,533 1,578 1,604
MARUTI 10,256 10,328 10,389 10,461 10,522
NESTLEIND 24,055 24,141 24,278 24,364 24,501
NTPC 234 236 238 240 242
ONGC 189 191 194 196 198
POWERGRID 204 207 209 212 213
RELIANCE 2,285 2,298 2,317 2,330 2,349
SBILIFE 1,329 1,340 1,347 1,358 1,364
SBIN 574 576 579 581 584
SUNPHARMA 1,159 1,168 1,175 1,184 1,192
TCS 3,311 3,329 3,360 3,379 3,410
TATACONSUM
886 894 907 915 927
TATAMOTORS 638 643 649 654 660
TATASTEEL 118 119 120 120 121
TECHM 1,104 1,114 1,127 1,138 1,151
TITAN 3,247 3,265 3,293 3,312 3,339
ULTRACEMCO 8,553 8,590 8,655 8,691 8,756
UPL 543 547 552 556 561
WIPRO 377 379 382 383 386
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
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