Technical and Derivatives Reports - November 9, 2023

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, 2023

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Technical &

Derivatives Report

Nifty Bank Outlook (

659

)

After Tuesday's notable recovery, the weekly expiry session for the

banking index began on a positive note. Unfortunately, the index

struggled to sustain at the higher levels and saw some profit-taking,

which brought it down towards the 43550 mark. Subsequently, the

index went into a consolidation mode for the remaining part of the

day and ultimately ended the day a tad below 43700.

The high beta index has recently been among the top

underperformers. In yesterday's session, we observed some

tentativeness around the crucial resistance situated between 43700

and 43850. This zone coincides with the 61.8% retracement level from

the recent decline, which originated around the 44700 mark. Looking

forward, any upward movement beyond 44000, followed by 44300,

would signal the conclusion of the corrective phase and the initiation

of the next leg of the rally. On the downside, the immediate support

levels to watch are 43400, followed by 43200. For now, we continue

to maintain our cautious stance on the market and would advocate

being very selective for a time being.

Key Levels

Support 1 – 43400 Resistance 1 – 43850

Support 2 – 43200 Resistance 2 – 44000

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart

Sensex (

) / Nifty (

)

Our markets experienced a subdued trading session yesterday, with

prices initially showing a slight positive opening and then trading within

a very narrow range of 50 points. Eventually, Nifty closed near its

opening levels, registering a modest gain of around 0.19% at 19444.

While the index is gradually climbing, the lack of strong momentum

suggests a cautious sentiment, particularly as prices are placed around

significant resistance levels. This sentiment is reflected in the formation

of small-bodied candles on the daily chart. Currently, the index is

hovering around the 61.8% retracement pivot point, and the market's

reaction in the range of 19460 to 19500 will be crucial to watch,

especially on the weekly expiry day. A sustained breakthrough beyond

this zone could potentially pave the way for an upward move extension

towards the descending trend line resistance at 19600, and if

momentum persists, it may move further toward the previous high of

19850. Conversely, a failure to hold these levels might trigger a

continuation of the downside, with potential retests of 19300 and

19200 levels in the near term. Hence, we are at a make-or-break level

and traders should closely monitor these levels on the weekly expiry

and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

While the key indices had a lackluster session, individual stocks

remained active. Traders appear to have shifted their focus towards

stock-specific trades ahead of Diwali, and it is advisable to continue

emphasizing this approach to identify opportunities for

outperformance.

Key Levels

Support 1 – 19300 Resistance 1 – 19500

Support 2 – 19200 Resistance 2 – 19600

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 The Indian Equity market witnessed a lackluster day

of trade, wherein the benchmark index Nifty50

stayed in a narrow range throughout and eventually

settled with mere gains of 0.19 percent.

 FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to

the tune of Rs. 85 cr. Simultaneously, they sold worth

Rs. 308 cr in Index futures with an increase in open

interest, indicating short addition.

 On the derivatives front, there have been

insignificant changes in the key indices. On the

options front, put writers shifted to 19400-19300

strikes ahead of the weekly settlement. On the

higher end, a meaningful pile-up of position was

observed in 19500-19600 call option strikes. The

Long Short Ratio advanced slightly to 19% from 18%

observed during the start of the week. Considering

the recent developments, our market seems a bit

tentative, with action lying in the broader space. We

would advocate to maintain caution and refrain from

carrying aggressive overnight trades.

Comments

 The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.04%

and Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by

11.70% as the market closed at 19443.50.

 The Nifty November future closed with a premium of

47.35 points against a premium of 70.20 points in the

last trading session. The December series closed at a

premium of 153.05 points.

 The INDIA VIX has decreased from 11.19 to 11.04. At

the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from

1.07 to 0.98.

 A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high

cost of carry are HINDPETRO, APOLLOTYRE, ALKEM,

ZYDUSLIFE and IPCALAB.

Historical Volatility

SCRIP HV

ADANIENT 72.92

IDEA 66.27

IBULHSGFIN 62.51

DELTACORP 60.72

RBLBANK 54.82

Nifty Vs OI

18400

18600

18800

19000

19200

19400

19600

19800

20000

20200

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

10-25 10-27 10-31 11-2 11-6 11-8

Openinterest Nifty

OI Gainers

SCRIP OI

CHG. (%)

PRICE

CHG. (%)

BATAINDIA 2404125 20.83 1556.95 0.89

DELTACORP 18582400 18.48 140.45 -2.33

BOSCHLTD 154500 18.35 19646.95 -0.97

LUPIN 9072900 11.80 1211.10 1.69

HINDPETRO 59356800 9.50 299.50 7.70

GRANULES 10134000 8.97 358.05 1.02

TATACHEM 10734900 8.89 958.40 -0.62

DIXON 1183400 7.25 5357.30 1.96

OI Losers

SCRIP OI

CHG. (%)

PRICE

CHG. (%)

ALKEM 17600 -21.62 4232.70 4.75

MRF 45790 -10.31 108348.25 1.40

APOLLOTYRE 13470800 -8.67 410.30 7.21

NAUKRI 1559700 -8.10 4505.80 3.68

IPCALAB 2234700 -5.96 1053.95 4.98

CUB 32490000 -5.15 139.15 0.47

ABBOTINDIA 60680 -4.17 24265.85 2.07

SBILIFE 5896500 -4.04 1345.45 0.17

Put-Call Ratio

SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)

NIFTY 0.98 0.90

BANKNIFTY 0.76 0.87

RELIANCE 0.58 0.45

ICICIBANK 0.60 0.52

INFY 0.46 0.61

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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.

Nifty Spot =

FII Statistics for

November

, 2023

Detail Buy

Contracts

OI Value

(in Cr.)

Sell Net

CHANGE

INDEX

FUTURES

2046.64 2354.67 (308.03) 247930 20293.34 3.04

INDEX

OPTIONS

2125814.42 2157883.88 (32069.46) 3736390 326174.47 (18.75)

STOCK

FUTURES

10927.62 11925.53 (997.91) 2585494 182040.72 0.86

STOCK

OPTIONS

10408.94 10514.90 (105.96) 210732 15060.13 5.03

Total

2149197.62

2182678.98

(33481.36) 6780546

543568.66

(10.82)

Turnover on

November

, 2023

Instrument

No. of

Contracts

Turnover

(in Cr.)

Change

(%)

Index Futures

233532 17763.56

-14.24

Index Options

648014564

48473.59

-11.67

Stock Futures

795706 57306.38

-7.37

Stock Options

3565356 4201.44 -1.34

Total

35,65,356

4201.44 -9.86

Bull-Call Spreads

Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP

Buy

19300

294.65 64.60

35.40

19364.60

Sell

19400

230.05

Buy

19300 294.65 122.10

77.90

19422.10

Sell

19500 172.55

Buy

19400

230.05 57.50 42.50 19457.50

Sell

19500 172.55

Bear-Put Spreads

Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP

Buy

19500 180.30

42.95

57.05

19457.05

Sell 19400 137.35

Buy 19500 180.30

78.20

121.80

19421.80

Sell

19300 102.10

Buy

19400 137.35

35.25 64.75 19364.75

Sell 19300 102.10

Nifty Put

Call Analysis

500,000

1000,000

1500,000

2000,000

2500,000

3000,000

3500,000

4000,000

4500,000

5000,000

18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100

Call Put

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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents

Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2

ADANIENT 2,201 2,231 2,264 2,294 2,327

ADANIPORTS 790 805 814 828 838

APOLLOHOSP 5,051 5,081 5,117 5,147 5,184

ASIANPAINT 3,027 3,061 3,080 3,114 3,133

AXISBANK 1,010 1,016 1,021 1,027 1,033

BAJAJ-AUTO 5,351 5,374 5,405 5,428 5,459

BAJFINANCE 7,338 7,399 7,468 7,528 7,597

BAJAJFINSV 1,551 1,563 1,572 1,584 1,592

BPCL 368 376 382 390 396

BHARTIARTL 930 934 938 941 945

BRITANNIA 4,633 4,652 4,669 4,688 4,705

CIPLA 1,212 1,227 1,234 1,249 1,257

COALINDIA 313 315 317 319 320

DIVISLAB 3,448 3,469 3,503 3,524 3,558

DRREDDY 5,360 5,407 5,454 5,500 5,547

EICHERMOT 3,481 3,516 3,540 3,575 3,600

GRASIM 1,909 1,922 1,932 1,945 1,955

HCLTECH 1,257 1,262 1,271 1,277 1,286

HDFCBANK 1,476 1,484 1,489 1,496 1,501

HDFCLIFE 613 616 620 623 628

HEROMOTOCO 3,102 3,117 3,142 3,157 3,181

HINDALCO 473 480 486 494 499

HINDUNILVR 2,487 2,503 2,514 2,530 2,541

ICICIBANK 925 930 939 945 954

INDUSINDBK 1,474 1,481 1,489 1,496 1,503

INFY 1,376 1,383 1,394 1,402 1,413

ITC 430 434 436 439 441

JSW STEEL 740 749 753 761 766

KOTAKBANK 1,728 1,737 1,749 1,758 1,770

LT 2,945 2,971 2,987 3,012 3,028

LTIMINDTREE 5,151 5,192 5,216 5,257 5,281

M&M 1,468 1,478 1,484 1,493 1,499

MARUTI 10,228 10,275 10,308 10,355 10,388

NESTLEIND 24,112 24,197 24,305 24,389 24,497

NTPC 233 235 238 240 243

ONGC 190 193 195 197 199

POWERGRID 205 206 208 209 211

RELIANCE 2,314 2,325 2,333 2,344 2,352

SBILIFE 1,329 1,337 1,343 1,352 1,358

SBIN 577 579 581 582 584

SUNPHARMA 1,165 1,171 1,177 1,183 1,189

TCS 3,352 3,367 3,384 3,399 3,417

TATACONSUM

905 910 920 926 935

TATAMOTORS 637 640 645 647 652

TATASTEEL 117 118 119 120 121

TECHM 1,127 1,133 1,143 1,149 1,159

TITAN 3,251 3,281 3,303 3,333 3,354

ULTRACEMCO 8,624 8,661 8,690 8,728 8,757

UPL 551 553 556 558 560

WIPRO 379 381 383 385 388

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Technical and Derivatives Team:

Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in

Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in

For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in

For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in

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