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Nifty Bank Outlook (
4
3
738
)
The Bank Nifty also started the session with little change, and in the
first hour, prices came under significant pressure, breaking not only
Monday's low but nearly testing the low from Friday, reaching an
intraday low of 43284. Despite the initially grim outlook, a sudden
surge in buying activity emerged during the second half of the day,
leading to a recovery of all the morning's losses and eventually closing
near the day's high, marking a gain of 0.27% closing at 43738.
The trading day was characterized by noteworthy developments on
both sides, with the high beta index showing some uncertainty around
the critical resistance level situated between 43700 and 43850. This
level represents a significant retracement point at 61.8%, carrying
substantial technical importance. To initiate the next leg of the upward
movement, prices will need to convincingly breach this level,
potentially triggering further upward momentum toward the 89EMA
around 44000 and then onward to the 44300 levels. On the downside,
the robust buying from lower levels does augur well for the bulls, and
in such a scenario, 43400 followed by 43200 are identified as
immediate support levels.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (
6
4
9
42
) / Nifty (
1
9
4
07
)
In the absence of any significant catalyst, the Nifty benchmark index
commenced trading with little change. Unlike the preceding session,
there was a lack of buying interest at higher levels, causing prices to
decline during the mid-session, reaching an intraday low of 19329.
However, this decline was met with buying interest as prices
subsequently retested the 19400 level during the final hour and
concluded a tad above it with no major price change.
From a technical perspective, there's no major change, and prices
seemed tentative as they approached a significant resistance level. This
cautious sentiment is reflected in the formation of a Dragon Fly Doji on
the daily chart. Currently, prices are retracing the previous downfall
and have reached the critical retracement level of 61.8%, situated
between 19460 and 19500. During last month's price recovery, selling
pressure emerged around the 61.8% retracement level of the prior
decline, emphasizing the importance of this resistance level. To sustain
the upward momentum, prices must convincingly breach these key
levels. Beyond this, the Descending Trend-line resistance at
approximately 19600 and the previous high at around 19850 would
represent significant resistance levels. Conversely, if the market
encounters selling pressure at current levels, a downside correction is
likely to ensue. In this case, the immediate support level would be
19300, followed by support around the bullish gap left at 19175 and
the 19060 levels.
As the Diwali festival draws nearer, traders are increasingly focused
on stock-specific trades, witnessing notable movements in certain
stocks. It is advisable to concentrate on these opportunities but with
a selective approach.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19300 Resistance 1 19480
Support 2 – 19175 Resistance 2 – 19530
Nevertheless, we reiterate to remain cautious and be selective in
your buying approach. Traders should monitor these levels,
especially in light of the weekly expiry, and adjust their trading
strategies accordingly.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 43400 Resistance 1 – 43850
Support 2 – 43200 Resistance 2 – 44000
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The Indian Equity market witnessed a volatile trading
session, wherein the initial hiccups were smartly
recouped by the bulls. Eventually the Nifty50 index
concluded on a subdued note with a ‘Doji’ formation
on the daily time frame.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to
the tune of Rs. 497 cr. Simultaneously, they bought
worth Rs. 125 cr in Index futures with a decrease in
open interest, indicating short covering.
On the derivatives front, there has been insignificant
changes in the key indices. On the options front, the
highest OI concentration is seen at 19300 put strike,
suggesting a strong nearby support. On the higher
end, the 19500-call strike has the highest OI
concentration, indicating intermediate resistance.
FIIs further curtailed bearish bets in index futures
segment; Long Short Ratio remains unchanged at
20%. Considering the recent developments, our
market seems a bit tentative and needs to maintain
cautious approach in the near term.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.20%
and Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
0.98% as the market closed at 19406.70.
The Nifty November future closed with a premium of
70.20 points against a premium of 74.75 points in the
last trading session. The December series closed at a
premium of 174.80 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 11.11 to 11.19. At the
same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from 1.14
to 1.07.
A few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are TRENT, ALEKM, IOC, HINDPETRO and
HAL.
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ADANIENT 73.08
IDEA 66.37
IBULHSGFIN 62.66
DELTACORP 60.79
RBLBANK 54.81
Nifty Vs OI
18400
18600
18800
19000
19200
19400
19600
19800
20000
20200
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
10-23 10-26 10-30 11-1 11-3 11-7
Openinterest Nifty
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOTYRE 14749200 18.82 384.20 -2.36
BATAINDIA 1989750 12.42 1538.60 -1.37
IOC 160855500 12.27 104.05 4.93
BANKBARODA 151848450 11.44 191.25 -1.84
ATUL 439050 11.08 6521.95 -2.95
TRENT 3667200 10.32 2424.20 9.08
TATACHEM 9858750 8.89 963.70 -1.56
BAJFINANCE 5020000 8.86 7495.65 -1.00
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BHARATFORG 17600 -14.58 1054.80 -2.32
ABBOTINDIA 63320 -7.05 23786.10 1.94
CROMPTON 12933000 -5.52 284.10 0.33
SBIN 87915000 -5.43 579.85 0.77
CANFINHOME 3386175 -5.24 756.50 -2.52
JKCEMENT 824500 -5.18 3363.75 -1.22
FEDERALBNK 96900000 -4.96 147.30 2.46
ICICIGI 2766000 -4.83 1379.60 0.06
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR (OI) PCR (VOL)
NIFTY 1.07 0.94
BANKNIFTY 1.20 0.89
RELIANCE 0.58 0.56
ICICIBANK 0.73 0.52
INFY 0.48 0.52
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Nov Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
1
9
4
06
.
7
0
FII Statistics for
November
0
7
, 2023
Detail Buy
Contracts
OI Value
(in Cr.)
Sell Net
CHANGE
INDEX
FUTURES
2573.06 2447.72 125.34
240605 19789.65 (1.62)
INDEX
OPTIONS
2080132.04 2075946.82 4185.22
4598614 367897.80 10.25
STOCK
FUTURES
12359.31 11419.59 939.72
2563432 179917.73 0.62
STOCK
OPTIONS
13954.96 13932.38 22.58
200649 14262.31 2.87
Total
2109019.37
2103746.51
5272.86
7603300
581867.49
6.22
Turnover on
November
0
7
, 2023
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
Index Futures
270923 20713.45
12.56
Index Options
555176775
54874.91
47.52
Stock Futures
859029 61867.47
2.80
Stock Options
3693380 4258.32
7.08
Total
36,93,380 4258.32
18.33
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19300
286.90 64.65
35.35
19364.65
Sell
19400
222.25
Buy
19300 286.90 118.90
81.10
19418.90
Sell
19500 168.00
Buy
19400
222.25 54.25 45.75 19454.25
Sell
19500 168.00
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy
19500 190.85
43.90
56.10
19456.10
Sell 19400 146.95
Buy 19500 190.85
79.60
120.40
19420.40
Sell
19300 111.25
Buy
19400 146.95
35.70 64.30 19364.30
Sell 19300 111.25
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000 20100
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIENT 2,207 2,220 2,240 2,253 2,273
ADANIPORTS 788 793 801 805 813
APOLLOHOSP 5,086 5,111 5,147 5,172 5,208
ASIANPAINT 2,988 3,011 3,025 3,047 3,062
AXISBANK 999 1,010 1,016 1,027 1,033
BAJAJ-AUTO 5,383 5,401 5,423 5,441 5,463
BAJFINANCE 7,333 7,414 7,527 7,608 7,721
BAJAJFINSV 1,518 1,544 1,576 1,602 1,634
BPCL 363 368 371 376 378
BHARTIARTL 930 933 936 940 943
BRITANNIA 4,560 4,607 4,639 4,687 4,718
CIPLA 1,195 1,206 1,212 1,222 1,228
COALINDIA 310 312 316 317 321
DIVISLAB 3,316 3,399 3,484 3,566 3,652
DRREDDY 5,246 5,325 5,399 5,478 5,552
EICHERMOT 3,451 3,480 3,509 3,539 3,568
GRASIM 1,903 1,912 1,921 1,930 1,939
HCLTECH 1,262 1,268 1,273 1,279 1,284
HDFCBANK 1,469 1,478 1,486 1,495 1,503
HDFCLIFE 611 617 620 626 630
HEROMOTOCO 3,084 3,107 3,144 3,167 3,204
HINDALCO 474 479 485 491 497
HINDUNILVR 2,476 2,486 2,496 2,506 2,516
ICICIBANK 923 936 943 956 963
INDUSINDBK 1,454 1,470 1,480 1,496 1,507
INFY 1,391 1,397 1,402 1,409 1,413
ITC 431 432 433 434 436
JSW STEEL 739 744 752 756 764
KOTAKBANK 1,716 1,733 1,744 1,762 1,772
LT 2,940 2,950 2,967 2,978 2,995
LTIMINDTREE 5,103 5,145 5,177 5,219 5,251
M&M 1,462 1,471 1,484 1,493 1,506
MARUTI 10,182 10,217 10,272 10,308 10,362
NESTLEIND 23,963 24,166 24,323 24,526 24,683
NTPC 234 236 238 241 242
ONGC 189 191 195 197 200
POWERGRID 204 206 208 209 211
RELIANCE 2,308 2,316 2,327 2,335 2,347
SBILIFE 1,311 1,326 1,335 1,350 1,359
SBIN 569 575 578 583 586
SUNPHARMA 1,137 1,154 1,164 1,181 1,191
TCS 3,342 3,356 3,380 3,394 3,418
TATACONSUM
909 915 920 926 930
TATAMOTORS 639 642 646 649 653
TATASTEEL 118 119 119 120 121
TECHM 1,132 1,140 1,145 1,154 1,159
TITAN 3,233 3,251 3,269 3,288 3,305
ULTRACEMCO 8,542 8,614 8,654 8,726 8,767
UPL 547 550 553 555 558
WIPRO 380 382 384 386 389
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Analyst - Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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