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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 31, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
21647
)
The Bank Nifty too corrected on the expiry day and posted a loss
of a couple of percentage. The index has been trading in a channel
and it has ended at the lower end of the channel which is placed
around 21600. Today's move would be crucial in the index as if it
gives a weekly closing below this support, then it could lead to
some further correction in the near term upto 21000-21100. On
the flipside, the index needs to break above 22350 for a
probability of any pullback move. Traders are advised to stay light
on positions and watch for the above mentioned developments.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21600 Resistance 1 – 22000
Support 2 – 21100 Resistance 2 – 22350
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (37736) / Nifty (11102)
After seeing a reality check on Wednesday, our markets started the
day slightly higher and then went on to extend the gains in the first
half. However, around 11300, Nifty was unable to display similar
strength and hence, the weak attempt eventually resulted in a sharp
decline in the latter half. The selling augmented after breaking all
important intraday supports one after another to test the 11100
mark. In the process, the July series expiry panned out on a
disappointing note
On Wednesday, the market had indicated some sign of caution and
yesterday's nosedive in the latter half, has clearly validated this
point. With yesterday's move, 11300-11350 has become an
immediate ceiling for Nifty and till the time we do not surpass it, one
should avoid aggressive bullish bets in the market. In fact, any
bounce back towards 11175-11250 should ideally be used to
lighten up longs.On the downside, as mentioned yesterday, a breach
of 11050 would result in a decent profit booking towards 10950-
10870 levels. Since, the banking remains to be a weakest link, the
corrective scenario is likely to be led by this space only and the way
its placed, things do not look encouraging. All this suspense is
likely to unfold probably in the next couple of trading sessions and
hence, one should stay light on positions and wait for confirmation.
On the sectoral front, throughout the day, the entire 'Pharma' space
kept buzzing and it was bucking the trend along with the Cement
counters.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11050 Resistance 1 – 11175
Support 2 – 10950 Resistance 2 – 11250
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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July 31, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10850
10900
10950
11000
11050
11100
11150
11200
11250
11300
11350
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
Although Nifty started the expiry session on a flat note,
it corrected in the later part of the day and ended with
a loss of about a percent. In the July series, Nifty posted
gains of about 8 percent while Bank Nifty
underperformed the benchmark index and ended with
gains of less than a percent.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 207 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth 539 crores with decrease in open interest on the
F&O expiry session
.
The rollover in Nifty is at 77.59 percent, which is in line
with its 3-month average of 77.40 percent, whereas
rollover in Bank Nifty is at 75.30 percent v/s its average
of 79 percent. During the July series, FII’s formed long
positions in the index futures segment; their ‘Long Short
Ratio’ at the start of new series is at 66 percent. The
weekly options data hints at a probable trading range
of 11000-11300 in the initial part of the new series. A
move beyond the mentioned range could then lead to
some directional move in the short term. Thus, traders
are advised to trade with a stock specific approach
within this range.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 21.79%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 23.46%
as market closed at 11102.15 levels.
The Nifty August future closed with a discount of 8.75
point against a premium of 19.6 point in last trading
session. The September series closed at a discount of
10.35 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 24.11 to 24.72
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.41
to 1.49.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, VEDL, GMRINFRA, SAIL, AND
TATAPOWER.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GLENMARK 5437200 10.57 441.40 3.97
SUNPHARMA 30380000 7.18 509.95 3.33
DRREDDY 3411750 4.57 4516.60 5.02
AMBUJACEM 19476000 3.51 221.25 2.10
NATIONALUM 38165000 2.79 32.50 -2.39
INDIGO 2801500 2.73 938.60 2.99
VEDL 109678000 1.31 110.90 1.41
MARUTI 2603900 1.15 6265.40 1.48
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDEA 124040000 -62.10 8.00 -2.41
POWERGRID 13712000 -45.79 176.85 -2.68
GODREJCP 4280000 -38.00 682.65 0.14
DLF 20733900 -36.52 140.10 0.00
CONCOR 4082556 -33.69 449.95 -0.86
NTPC 55307100 -30.12 86.60 -1.87
GODREJPROP 303550 -29.46 870.35 -1.33
ONGC 38792600 -29.22 77.70 -2.26
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.49 1.00
BANKNIFTY 0.68 0.72
RELIANCE 0.78 0.64
ICICIBANK 0.55 0.57
INFY 0.87 0.53
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
DIVISLAB 40.96
MANAPPURAM 78.65
DRREDDY 38.26
BPCL 63.11
IOC 44.77
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Technical & Derivatives Report
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (August Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11102.15
FII Statistics for July 30, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
6858.84
6319.98
538.86
115657
8844.59
(35.26)
INDEX
OPTIONS
435030.35
433604.37
1425.98
498008
39185.76
(41.16)
STOCK
FUTURES
24791.05
24395.64
395.41
1209003
83774.88
(6.08)
STOCK
OPTIONS
3424.80
3148.07
276.73
22112
1459.73
(67.10)
Total 470105.04
467468.06
2636.98
1844780
133264.96
(22.48)
Turnover on July 30, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 6,78,978 46207.68 2.52
Index Options 5,95,11,559
39,36,485.11 97.43
Stock Futures 15,16,412 1,07,899.88 -7.31
Stock Options 12,40,362 97435.66 -9.43
Total 6,29,47,311
41,88,028.33 85.07
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11100 281.30
49.45 50.55 11149.45
Sell 11200 231.85
Buy 11100 281.30
93.85 106.15 11193.85
Sell 11300 187.45
Buy 11200 231.85
44.40 55.60 11244.40
Sell 11300 187.45
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11100 287.60
42.80 57.20 11057.20
Sell 11000 244.80
Buy 11100 287.60
83.80 116.20 11016.20
Sell 10900 203.80
Buy 11000 244.80
41.00 59.00 10959.00
Sell 10900 203.8
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
303
308
315
319
326
ASIANPAINT 1,700 1,722
1,750
1,772
1,800
AXISBANK
411
418
432
440
453
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,982 3,016
3,073
3,106
3,163
BAJFINANCE 3,130 3,174
3,249
3,293
3,368
BAJAJFINSV 5,992 6,085
6,253
6,346
6,514
BPCL
401
410
425
434
449
BHARTIARTL
521
537
559
574
596
INFRATEL
186
189
195
198
203
BRITANNIA 3,740 3,773
3,824
3,857
3,908
CIPLA
671
678
689
696
707
COALINDIA
126
127
130
131
133
DRREDDY 4,252 4,
384
4,472
4,604
4,692
EICHERMOT 20,626
20,914
21,319
21,607
22,013
GAIL
94
95
98
99
101
GRASIM
586
594
610
618
634
HCLTECH
680
688
700
708
720
HDFCBANK 1,023 1,037
1,060
1,074
1,097
HDFC 1,742 1,776
1,838
1,873
1,935
HEROMOTOCO
2
,625
2,665
2,727
2,767
2,829
HINDALCO
157
159
163
165
168
HINDUNILVR 2,160 2,178
2,208
2,226
2,256
ICICIBANK
332
339
347
353
361
IOC
85
87
90
92
94
INDUSINDBK
497
508
527
539
558
INFY
950
956
964
970
978
ITC
189
191
195
197
201
JSW STEEL
208
211
216
220
225
KOTAKBANK 1,347 1,366
1,395
1,414
1,444
LT
887
897
915
926
944
M&M
585
591
603
610
622
MARUTI 6,053 6,159
6,276
6,383
6,500
NESTLEIND 16,262
16,393
16,582
16,714
16,903
NTPC
84
85
87
88
90
ONGC
76
77
79
80
81
POWERGRID
171
174
179
182
186
RELIANCE 2,039 2,074
2,107
2,142
2,175
SHREECEM 20,848
21,122
21,573
21,847
22,298
SBIN
181
184
189
191
196
SUNPHARMA
478
494
503
520
529
TCS 2,218 2,249
2,303
2,334
2,389
TATAMOTORS
101
1
02
104
106
108
TATASTEEL
356
361
370
375
383
TECHM
659
667
677
685
695
TITAN 1,029 1,035
1,047
1,053
1,064
ULTRACEMCO 4,077 4,116
4,168
4,207
4,259
UPL
456
460
466
470
476
VEDANTA
106
109
111
113
116
WIPRO
277
281
284
287
290
ZEEL
134
137
141
144
149
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July 31, 2020
*
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
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