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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 28, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (21849)
The Banking index opened on a flat note in yesterday's session.
However, right from the word go the index started correcting and
within 15 minutes, the index was down significantly over previous
weeks close. It crept lower till the close and ended the session with
a loss of over 800 points.
Yesterday's move in the banking space was certainly unexpected
given the consolidation phase in Nifty. However, the price
corrected throughout the session with no pull back moves in
between. On the daily chart, the index is seen trading in a channel
with the lower end of the channel seen at 21500-21550 range.
Traders are advised to stay light on positions as of now and be
vigilant on how the index bechaves around the mentioned
support. The immediate resistance for the index are seen around
22250 and 22400.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21550 Resistance 1 – 22250
Support 2 – 21500 Resistance 2 – 22400
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
(
37935)
/ Nifty
(
11132
)
Trading for the week started marginally higher owing to favorable
global cues. However, within a few moments, the lead disappeared
to decouple with global peers first. After this what we witnessed was
one of the rarest actions in our market. The Nifty and Bank Nifty
looked completely divergent. The direction was similar (downwards)
but the proportion of the decline was extremely wide. Looking at
Nifty, it appeared as if markets are consolidating with mildly
negative bias; but looking at banking index, it appeared as if there
is no tomorrow. Yes, many times we see Bank Nifty underperforming
the benchmark but yesterday’s divergence was something different.
Fortunately, Reliance and heavyweight IT counters were the saviors
in case of Nifty, otherwise, taking their contribution out, the Nifty
also would have closed with severe cuts.
Now let’s dig into a bit of technicals. As far as Nifty is concerned, we
continue to see 11050 as a sacrosanct support and till the time it
trades convincingly above it, there is no reason to worry. On the flip
side, if this lead has to extend, the benchmark needs to stay beyond
11250, which would unfold the next leg of the rally. Meanwhile, the
range of 11250-11050 should be considered a consolidation band.
Now, the breakout in either direction is solely dependent on how
Bank Nifty performs over the next couple of days. If banking
heavyweights extend their correction, the Nifty will see a breakdown;
whereas a breakout above 11250 is out of question without the
contribution of banking space.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
At this juncture, traders are advised to stay light and should keep a
close watch on above mentioned levels as well as scenarios. As of
now, our inclination is still on the positive side and hence, we remain
hopeful as long as key levels are successfully defended.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11085 Resistance 1 – 11200
Support 2 – 11050 Resistance 2 – 11250
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 28, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10200
10300
10400
10500
10600
10700
10800
10900
11000
11100
11200
11300
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
7/10 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/27
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
The week started on a positive note however within few
moments Index gave away the gains. Subsequently,
Nifty traded in a range with mild negative bias to
eventually end with loss of 0.56% at 11131.80.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 453 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth 500 crores with decrease in open interest
indicating short covering in yesterday’s session
.
In yesterday's session, Nifty corrected by half a percent
while Bank Nifty corrected by more than three and a
half percent. While Nifty witnessed some unwinding of
positions, Bank Nifty corrected due to a combination of
long unwinding and short formation. FII's were net
sellers in the cash segment while they unwinded some
of their index futures positions too. In options front, we
witnessed addition of open interest in 11200 call. The
open interest position indicates a trading range of
11000-11200 till expiry. Hence, traders are advised to
trade with a stock specific approach in this
consolidation.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.31%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.49%
as market closed at 11131.80 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a discount of 9.35 point
against a discount of 7.9 point in last trading session. The
August series closed at a discount of 11.95 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 24.53 to 25.01
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.74 to 1.49.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, RBLBANK, SUNTV, IBULHSGFIN AND
SAIL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
JINDALSTEL 19315000 18.93 176.95 5.07
ESCORTS 3012900 18.52 1106.00 -2.20
CANBK 16365000 13.45 99.70 -4.06
BAJAJ-AUTO 1816500 12.11 3020.40 1.07
AMARAJABAT 1816000 11.41 684.75 -3.16
RECLTD 20388000 10.36 100.85 -5.16
MUTHOOTFIN 4507500 9.89 1362.70 4.38
MINDTREE 1693600 9.69 1050.10 2.76
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
NCC 16359000 -15.78 29.85 -5.40
RBLBANK 22170200 -14.46 178.80 -1.91
CENTURYTEX 2517200 -13.85 298.20 -0.42
CUMMINSIND 1915200 -13.12 394.10 -0.09
HDFCBANK 38784350 -9.90 1079.50 -3.02
JUSTDIAL 1246000 -9.00 369.80 0.07
GLENMARK 5483200 -7.70 425.40 0.15
BHEL 49686000 -7.47 36.20 -1.49
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.49 0.93
BANKNIFTY 0.63 0.88
RELIANCE 0.94 0.54
ICICIBANK 0.37 0.33
INFY 1.29 0.55
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
M&MFIN 83.89
UJJIVAN 76.47
ICICIBANK 64.52
RECLTD 54.90
INDIGO 54.91
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 28, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11131.80
FII Statistics for July 27, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
5608.61
5108.69
499.92
127771
9518.16
(6.60)
INDEX
OPTIONS
158486.64
158279.84
206.80
776856
59552.31
2.04
STOCK
FUTURES
32532.85
32680.65
(147.80) 1349456
92719.22
2.28
STOCK
OPTIONS
7550.68
7434.81
115.87
82899
5688.46
(7.73)
Total 204178.78
203503.99
674.79
2336982
167478.15
1.28
Turnover on July 27, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,26,244 34821.78 1.60
Index Options 1,53,96,734
10,46,624.18 17.85
Stock Futures 14,96,870 1,03,492.11 21.65
Stock Options 17,33,296 1,34,054.15 -8.25
Total 1,91,53,144
13,18,992.22 14.34
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11100 106.10
47.45 52.55 11147.45
Sell 11200 58.65
Buy 11100 106.10
77.00 123.00 11177.00
Sell 11300 29.10
Buy 11200 58.65
29.55 70.45 11229.55
Sell 11300 29.10
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11100 82.90
35.85 64.15 11064.15
Sell 11000 47.05
Buy 11100 82.90
56.20 143.80 11043.80
Sell 10900 26.70
Buy 11000 47.05
20.35 79.65 10979.65
Sell 10900 26.70
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800
Call Put
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July 28, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
293
301
306
314
319
ASIANPAINT 1,690 1,734
1,761
1,805
1,832
AXISBANK
418
425
436
443
455
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,896 2,958
2,997
3,059
3,097
BAJFINANCE 3,073 3,122
3,201
3,250
3,329
BAJAJFINSV 6,029 6,101
6,208
6,280
6,387
BPCL
434
446
456
468
479
BHARTIARTL
536
548
556
567
575
INFRATEL
188
191
194
197
200
BRITANNIA 3,711 3,744
3,795
3,829
3,880
CIPLA
636
644
659
668
683
COALINDIA
128
129
130
131
133
DRREDDY 3,899 3,957
4,021
4,080
4,144
EICHERMOT 20,146
20,342
20,596
20,792
21,046
GAIL
95
96
99
100
102
GRASIM
558
565
575
581
591
HCLTECH
666
684
694
712
722
HDFCBANK 1,058 1,069
1,086
1,097
1,114
HDFC 1,808 1,829
1,846
1,867
1,884
HEROMOTOCO
2,660
2,702
2,730
2,772
2,801
HINDALCO
152
155
158
160
163
HINDUNILVR 2,163 2,192
2,214
2,243
2,265
ICICIBANK
338
348
367
377
396
IOC
89
92
94
96
98
INDUSINDBK
493
500
512
519
531
INFY
906
927
940
961
974
ITC
192
194
197
200
203
JSW STEEL
197
202
205
210
214
KOTAKBANK 1,268 1,295
1,337
1,365
1,407
LT
886
895
905
914
924
M&M
582
588
594
600
606
MARUTI 5,877 5,960
6,011
6,095
6,146
NESTLEIND 17,123
17,236
17,326
17,440
17,529
NTPC
86
87
88
89
91
ONGC
79
80
81
82
83
POWERGRID
178
179
180
182
183
RELIANCE 2,090 2,123
2,161
2,194
2,232
SHREECEM 20,666
20,890
21,240
21,464
21,814
SBIN
182
185
189
191
196
SUNPHARMA
459
467
477
486
496
TCS 2,144 2,175
2,195
2,227
2,247
TATAMOTORS
99
101
103
104
106
TATASTEEL
341
347
350
356
360
TECHM
631
648
660
677
689
TITAN 1,018 1,030
1,051
1,063
1,084
ULTRACEMCO 3,727 3,794
3,847
3,914
3,967
UPL
431
438
448
455
464
VEDANTA
107
108
111
112
115
WIPRO
264
266
270
272
276
ZEEL
138
142
148
152
159
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 28, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com