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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 27, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (22662)
On Friday, Bank Nifty witnessed a gap down opening and slipped
lower to mark intraday low of 22417. Subsequently, a mild
recovery from the lower levels resulted bank index to end with a
loss of 1.83% at 22662.
As mentioned above, the bank index is likely to play a vital role in
the next leg of the broader market rally and 23000 - 23200 zone
has been the levels we have been advocating throughout the week
as a breakout level. For this week, 23000 - 23200 continues to be
the level on watch as above the same we can expect a strong
outperformance by banking stocks and a continuation of the
broader market rally. On the flip side, immediate support is placed
around 22200 and 22000 levels. Traders are advised to have a
stock-specific approach on banking and NBFC stocks which are
likely to give better trading opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 22200 Resistance 1 – 23000
Support 2 – 22000 Resistance 2 – 23200
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
(
38101)
/ Nifty
(
11194
)
The stage was set previous Friday when our markets had a late surge
to surpass the recent hurdle of 10850 on a closing basis. Hence, with
global markets showing some favorable cues, we had a cheerful start
for the week gone by on Monday at 11000, marking the highest
level since March 06, 2020. This momentum extended on the
following day as we witnessed yet another gap up opening to extend
this lead. However, post this, markets had some reality checks in
between to remain in a slender range throughout the remaining part
to conclude the week tad below 11200 mark. The banking index was
one of the major charioteers in this extended move, barring Friday,
when banking space has undergone some selling pressure to pare
down a decent portion of their weekly gains.
In continuation of our previous weekly commentary, our desired
levels of 11200 has now been met. But since, there are multiple
technical observations that coincide around it, markets will have a
daunting task in front of them now. Since, we are extremely
overbought, we are in two minds whether to go with the theoretical
characteristic of this term ‘overboughtor the practical one. Because,
theoretically, the current placement (78% retracement of the post
COVID fall which coincides with 100% ‘price extension’ of recent
swings from March bottom) of market is just ideal to see some
genuine correction; but practically as we all know, market has the
tendency to surprise us all the time. Hence, rather anticipating things
from here on, we would rather let the market give us further
indication. As we step into the monthly expiry week, our eyes would
be on a few crucial levels. On the upside, 11250 is the level to watch
out for; whereas, 11050 has now become a key support.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
As an optimist, one should remain hopeful as long as we are trading
above this swing low (11050) and expect the market to give
breakout in upward direction to extend the move towards 11350 –
11400. However, a breach of lower end should be treated as a short-
term pause to see some decent profit booking. We continue to
advise traders to remain light and keep booking profits wherever it's
necessary. Also, if our markets have to see any upward move, the
banking space plays a vital role in this. Hence, one needs to see
whether BANKNIFTY manages to convincingly go beyond 23000-
23200 or not in this week.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11100 Resistance 1 – 11250
Support 2 – 11050 Resistance 2 – 11350
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 27, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10200
10300
10400
10500
10600
10700
10800
10900
11000
11100
11200
11300
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
7/10 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
Nifty started the week on a positive note to surpass the
11000 mark with formation of long positions. However,
the index witnessed some consolidation in last couple
of sessions to end tad below 11200.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 410 crores. In index futures, they sold worth
1196 crores with decrease in open interest indicating
long unwinding and short positions on Friday
.
During the week, the Nifty PCR went upto 1.87 which is
considered as overbought zone. The PCR has ended at
1.74 which is still overbought, hence traders are advised
to be vigilant on this data. FII’s were net buyers in cash
segment throughout the week, but they formed mixed
positions in index futures. The options data hints
support at 11000 mark as the put option of this strike
has good amount of open interest outstanding. For the
coming week, 11000-11200 seems to be the
immediate trading range. Considering the above data,
traders are advised to trade with a stock specific
approach at the start of the week and watch for further
developments as we approach the monthly expiry.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.22%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.96%
as market closed at 11215.45 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a discount of 7.9 point
against a discount of 22.05 point in last trading session.
The August series closed at a discount of 1 point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 24.64 to 24.53
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.86 to 1.74.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, NATIONALUM, SAIL, JINDALSTEL, AND
ASHOKLEY.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
RBLBANK 25919400 32.23 182.90 3.23
IBULHSGFIN 15847200 25.73 216.10 -1.43
MUTHOOTFIN 4101750 21.37 1303.00 -0.48
UJJIVAN 3603600 16.42 246.85 -4.51
UPL 16233100 11.44 454.15 -2.10
CUMMINSIND 2204400 10.86 395.20 0.40
CANBK 14425000 10.37 101.25 -1.46
TORNTPOWER 2055000 10.31 318.10 -0.62
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ITC 70812800 -23.30 199.60 -0.95
JUSTDIAL 1369200 -13.14 369.85 -2.48
NIITTECH 431250 -11.27 1700.10 3.78
ESCORTS 2542100 -9.73 1128.20 -3.73
SRTRANSFIN 3257628 -9.47 706.85 0.35
MGL 945600 -8.43 1027.90 -0.39
CHOLAFIN 6620000 -7.38 212.35 -4.85
SAIL 46379000 -6.08 34.35 -1.99
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.74 0.96
BANKNIFTY 0.90 0.86
RELIANCE 1.03 0.43
ICICIBANK 0.48 0.37
INFY 1.07 0.50
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
PETRONET 47.40
HCLTECH 47.23
RELIANCE 53.33
GMRINFRA 52.74
TECHM 49.23
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 27, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11194.15
FII Statistics for July 24, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4650.16
5846.63
(1196.47) 136807
10205.85
(4.80)
INDEX
OPTIONS
143793.68
144484.61
(690.93) 761361
59145.81
8.00
STOCK
FUTURES
20747.36
21957.28
(1209.92) 1319429
91169.52
0.61
STOCK
OPTIONS
9932.78
9787.09
145.69
89843
6227.93
(3.73)
Total 179123.98
182075.61
(2951.63) 2307440
166749.11
2.40
Turnover on July 24, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,05,377 34273.88 30.28
Index Options 1,26,67,332
8,88,084.49 -72.94
Stock Futures 12,04,453 85071.53 37.30
Stock Options 18,10,003 1,46,112.55 43.43
Total 1,61,87,165
11,53,542.45 -66.77
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11200 94.35
40.35 59.65 11240.35
Sell 11300 54.00
Buy 11200 94.35
65.65 134.35 11265.65
Sell 11400 28.70
Buy 11300 54.00
25.30 74.70 11325.30
Sell 11400 28.70
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11200 123.35
44.05 55.95 11155.95
Sell 11100 79.30
Buy 11200 123.35
73.40 126.60 11126.60
Sell 11000 49.95
Buy 11100 79.30
29.35 70.65 11070.65
Sell 11000 49.95
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
301
305
310
314
318
ASIANPAINT 1,662 1,687
1,707
1,732
1,752
AXISBANK
433
439
448
454
463
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,946 2,966
2,998
3,018
3,050
BAJFINANCE 3,184 3,218
3,254
3,288
3,324
BAJAJFINSV 6,153 6,212
6,283
6,342
6,413
BPCL
434
441
452
460
471
BHARTIARTL
549
554
561
566
573
INFRATEL
188
192
196
200
204
BRITANNIA 3,730 3,774
3,812
3,856
3,894
CIPLA
646
656
668
679
691
COALINDIA
129
130
132
133
134
DRREDDY 3,971 4,018
4,099
4,147
4,227
EICHERMOT 19,953
20,377
20,624
21,048
21,295
GAIL
97
98
100
102
104
GRASIM
572
577
587
592
602
HCLTECH
625
652
669
696
712
HDFCBANK 1,093 1,106
1,114
1,128
1,136
HDFC 1,798 1,820
1,839
1,860
1,880
HEROMOTOCO
2,688
2,714
2,755
2,781
2,822
HINDALCO
151
153
157
160
164
HINDUNILVR 2,147 2,178
2,199
2,230
2,251
ICICIBANK
364
373
381
390
397
IOC
90
92
93
94
96
INDUSINDBK
483
503
520
539
556
INFY
895
909
917
931
940
ITC
195
197
200
202
204
JSW STEEL
198
202
207
210
215
KOTAKBANK 1,329 1,339
1,352
1,363
1,376
LT
889
897
906
913
922
M&M
586
592
597
603
607
MARUTI 5,878 5,939
5,993
6,055
6,109
NESTLEIND 16,757
17,005
17,207
17,455
17,657
NTPC
88
88
89
90
91
ONGC
79
80
81
82
83
POWERGRID
177
179
181
184
186
RELIANCE 2,017 2,082
2,122
2,187
2,228
SHREECEM 20,924
21,129
21,364
21,569
21,804
SBIN
187
190
193
195
199
SUNPHARMA
472
479
488
495
505
TCS 2,111 2,134
2,149
2,172
2,186
TATAMOTORS
101
102
104
105
107
TATASTEEL 3
39
343
346
350
353
TECHM
614
633
644
664
675
TITAN 1,019 1,038
1,052
1,072
1,085
ULTRACEMCO 3,682 3,732
3,786
3,836
3,889
UPL
436
445
453
462
470
VEDANTA
108
110
112
114
116
WIPRO
263
267
269
273
276
ZEEL
145
148
154
157
162
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 27, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com