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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 20, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
21967
)
On Friday, Bank Nifty started on a flat note and then traded
within a range for the major part of the session. However, a
strong buying was seen in the last hour of trade which pushed
the bank index higher to end with gains of 1.71% at 21966.80.
During last week, Bank Nifty underperformed the benchmark
index for major part of the week. However, the positive
divergence on the hourly chart of Bank Nifty which we
mentioned in our report triggered a smart bounce back on
Friday. Now since Nifty has given a breakout above its resistance,
it is quite likely that the banking index would show a catch up
move in next few days to cover up the recent underperformance.
Hence, traders are advised to trade with a positive bias and look
for buying opportunities within the sector. As far as levels are
concerned, immediate targets are seen around 22320 and 22650
whereas supports are placed around 21680 - 21550 levels
.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21680 Resistance 1 – 22320
Support 2 – 21550 Resistance 2 – 22650
Exhibit 1
: Nifty
Daily
Chart
Sensex (37020) / Nifty (10902)
It was indeed an action packed week for our markets, rather, we
should say for global markets. Trading started on Monday with a
decent upside gap owing to favorable global cues. However, this
turned out to be a formality as index gave up a major portion of
its morning gains. This was followed by a bout of profit booking
to mark one of the weakest sessions in the recent past. But the
real action started from there on. On the following day, we
witnessed a massive bump up at the opening; courtesy to smart
rallies in global peers after the recent development on the vaccine.
Everything looked hunky dory but post Reliance AGM; the stock
took a nosedive and so as our markets. We were back to 10600
but again the market had completely different plans as we
witnessed a smart recovery first and then a consistent rally to
conclude the week at new 4-months high.
Our markets saw a roller-coaster move throughout this week; in
fact during the day also swings were wild, barring Friday’s session
where we witnessed a unidirectional move (northwards). Now let’s
see what charts have to say for the forthcoming sessions. We had
anticipated a possible breakout from the sturdy wall of 10850
during this week. Honestly we expected it in the initial part of the
week but we went through a correction first and hence, the
conviction became stronger during the midst of the week about
Nifty surpassing hurdle soon. Finally with Friday’s late surge in
banking conglomerates, Nifty has confirmed a breakout above
10850, which resembles a ‘Bullish Flag’ pattern on daily chart.
Now, the banking seems
to have regained strength which we
believe should lead the move in this week.
Exhibit 2
: Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
As far as levels are concerned, the up move should ideally get
extended towards the 78.6% retracement zone at 11100 11200.
In the previous weekly commentary, we had mentioned these levels
and anticipated a possible correction after reaching these levels
first. But since we have already seen a small decline early this week,
we will have to reassess the situation whether the markets have
further steam left to go beyond it or not. So from here on, one step
at a time is the strategy to follow and better to timely book profits
as well in the rally. Traders are advised to keep following stock
specific moves and the base now remains at 10660 – 10560.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10850 Resistance 1 – 11000
Support 2 – 10760 Resistance 2 – 11100
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 20, 2020
Nifty Vs
OI
10100
10200
10300
10400
10500
10600
10700
10800
10900
11000
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
7/1 7/2 7/3 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/107/137/147/157/167/17
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
Vie
w
s
During the last week, Nifty started on a positive note
around 10850,however, it corrected from there upto
10600-10550 in just couple of sessions. The index then
oscillated within a range during mid-week and it rallied
sharply on Friday to conclude the week above 10900.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 697 crores. In index futures, they bought
worth 652 crores with decrease in open interest
indicating short covering and long formation on Friday
.
During the last week, both Nifty as well as BankNifty
witnessed unwinding of some positions as the open
interest reduced by about 7% in both the indices. FII’s
formed some short positions index futures at the start of
the week, but they covered their shorts and formed some
longs in last couple of sessions; their ‘Long Short Ratio’
now stands above 53 percent. In the weekly options
segment, good open interest addition was seen in 11200
call option on Friday; rise in open interest along with price
upmove indicates long formation in this strike. On the
flipside, 10800 and 10700 put options witnessed fresh
addition indicating put writing as the index rallied higher.
The above data indicates higher probability of further
upmove towards 11200 in this week, while 10800-10700
would be seen as support. Hence, traders are advised to
trade with a positive bias.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.21%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.73%
as market closed at 10901.70 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a premium of 3.35
point against a discount of 26.1 point in last trading
session. The August series closed at a premium of 13.5
point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 25.36 to 24.15
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from
1.35 to 1.76.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are L&TFH, SUNTV, GMRINFRA, CANBK, AND
FEDERALBNK.
OI
Gaine
rs
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CONCOR 7171044 32.75 448.65 4.43
SAIL 50711000 21.87 35.40 3.49
VOLTAS 3698000 19.91 576.60 5.12
TORNTPHARM 1654000 18.27 2393.65 -0.44
GLENMARK 7638300 17.64 429.75 1.70
BHEL 63609000 16.68 38.35 3.91
GMRINFRA 115650000 14.58 19.95 0.00
CADILAHC 9741600 13.48 377.40 4.56
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MINDTREE 1460800 -13.58 1022.00 1.33
MUTHOOTFIN 3871500 -13.42 1202.95 5.95
GODREJPROP 349050 -11.53 882.00 -0.34
CIPLA 12795900 -9.21 689.10 2.05
HINDPETRO 24529500 -8.63 224.00 6.86
JSWSTEEL 45130500 -4.58 206.75 2.55
BANDHANBNK 10251000 -4.46 352.80 3.17
MGL 981600 -4.27 993.90 1.70
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.76 0.85
BANKNIFTY 0.93 0.81
RELIANCE 0.63 0.39
ICICIBANK 0.45 0.36
INFY 1.42 1.07
Histor
ical
Volatility
SCRIP HV
BPCL 62.71
VOLTAS 46.94
HINDPETRO 64.81
CADILAHC 44.50
TATAPOWER 54.13
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 20, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
10901.7
FII
Statistics for July 17
, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4639.42
3987.07
652.35
113632
8103.65
(0.80)
INDEX
OPTIONS
181278.35
180711.36
566.99
735125
54666.40
15.33
STOCK
FUTURES
16353.91
16059.90
294.01
1302623
88987.99
0.14
STOCK
OPTIONS
5025.97
5061.58
(35.61) 114162
7925.16
(1.02)
Total 207297.65
205819.91
1477.74
2265542
159683.20
4.50
Turnover on July 17
,
20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,09,957 33041.38 0.89
Index Options
1,44,72,377
8,74,450.03 -74.72
Stock Futures 8,80,221 62209.94 -0.77
Stock Options
13,59,113
1,05,461.72 10.49
Total 1,72,21,668
10,75,163.07
-70.55
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10900 170.80
50.90 49.10 10950.90
Sell 11000 119.90
Buy 10900 170.80
90.65 109.35 10990.65
Sell 11100 80.15
Buy 11000 119.90
39.75 60.25 11039.75
Sell 11100 80.15
Bea
r
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10900 167.30
37.80 62.20 10862.20
Sell 10800 129.50
Buy 10900 167.30
68.75 131.25 10831.25
Sell 10700 98.55
Buy 10800 129.50
30.95 69.05 10769.05
Sell 10700 98.55
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 20, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
306
309
314
318
322
ASIANPAINT
1,664
1,691 1,717
1,744
1,769
AXISBANK
417
425
433
440
448
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,898
2,947 2,973
3,022
3,048
BAJFINANCE
3,158
3,230 3,276
3,348
3,394
BAJAJFINSV
6,239
6,300 6,341
6,403
6,444
BPCL
372
408
428
463
483
BHARTIARTL
555
561
567
573
580
INFRATEL
187
192
197
202
206
BRITANNIA
3,659
3,722 3,830
3,893
4,001
CIPLA
658
673
685
701
712
COALINDIA
124
127
130
133
135
DRREDDY
4,068
4,093 4,126
4,151
4,184
EICHERMOT
18,390
18,601 18,862
19,072
19,333
GAIL
95
98
100
103
105
GRASIM
578
585
590
597
603
HCLTECH
596
609
627
641
658
HDFCBANK
1,041
1,070 1,087
1,116
1,133
HDFC
1,766
1,786 1,804
1,824
1,842
HEROMOTOCO
2,675
2,720
2,747
2,792
2,819
HINDALCO
156
159
164
167
172
HINDUNILVR
2,260
2,297 2,319
2,356
2,378
ICICIBANK
341
348
352
358
362
IOC
82
84
86
89
90
INDUSINDBK
505
513
520
528
534
INFY
877
890
905
918
933
ITC
192
193
194
195
197
JSW STEEL
198
202
207
211
216
KOTAKBANK
1,285
1,306 1,322
1,343
1,359
LT
913
919
925
931
936
M&M
556
572
582
598
608
MARUTI
5,804
5,862 5,909
5,967
6,014
NESTLEIND
16,883
17,057 17,338
17,512
17,793
NTPC
86
87
88
89
90
ONGC
75
78
79
82
83
POWERGRID
161
162
163
164
165
RELIANCE
1,808
1,860 1,890
1,942
1,972
SHREECEM
21,298
21,784 22,092
22,578
22,886
SBIN
183
186
188
190
192
SUNPHARMA
491
497
504
510
516
TCS
2,158
2,179 2,212
2,233
2,265
TATAMOTORS
102
104
106
108
109
TATASTEEL
339
345
351
357
363
TECHM
584
592
598
606
612
TITAN
941
970
985
1,013
1,028
ULTRACEMCO
3,791
3,827 3,848
3,884
3,905
UPL
428
432
437
442
447
VEDANTA
106
108
109
111
112
WIPRO
254
258
261
264
268
ZEEL
153
155
157
160
162
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Technical & Derivatives Report
July 20, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical & Derivatives Queries E-mail: tech[email protected]elbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives [email protected]angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst [email protected]gelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]roking.com