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Technical &
Derivatives Report
October 19, 2020
Nifty
look
-
(
23533
)
During the week gone by, the bank nifty initially started with some
consolidation however in the latter half we witnessed wild swings
on both sides to eventually end with a loss of 1.31% against the
previous week close tad above 23500.
After its splendor run in the previous two weeks of more than 3500
points; the bank index witnessed some profit booking during the
last week on the back of weakness in the global cues. We sense
this profit booking as healthy and the bank nifty is just re-testing
its previous breakout levels at 22700 which coincides with
20DEMA. As long prices hold this said levels the bulls will have the
upper hand. After Thursday's sharp correction, we witnessed good
stock-specific action from the banking space on Friday and traders
are hence advised to keep a stock-specific approach. As far as
levels are concerned, immediate support is placed around 23150
and 22970 whereas resistance is at 23920 and 24150 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 23150 Resistance 1 – 23920
Support 2 – 22970 Resistance 2 – 24150
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (39983) / Nifty (11762)
Last week’s price action can be divided into two parts where the first
half was more of a consolidation with no major movement and the
latter one brought some volatility in the market. We managed to
clock the psychological mark of 12000 but failed to sustain there. In
fact, due to sudden sell off in global markets on Thursday on the
fears of a second wave of coronavirus hitting the major European
countries, we witnessed a sharp decline in our markets. Fortunately,
there was no follow through to this as we saw modest recovery to
end the week well above 11700.
In the last couple of weeks, we have seen a remarkable recovery in
our market after testing the 200-SMA level of 10800. Since the move
was extremely swift and markets had a winning streak of 10 straight
sessions before Thursday, any uncertainty was likely to trigger profit
booking and this is exactly what we have seen. Now, purely looking
at charts, this down move should only be interpreted as a pull back
towards the recent trend line breakout points. This coincides with the
20-day EMA level of 11600. Hence, all eyes would be on this level in
this week. However, since the fall has to do with the global
uncertainty, it would be important to see how things pan out there
and if things worsen, we may see the market correcting further. A
close below 11600 would apply brakes on the recent optimism and
we may then see some extended correction in the market. Till then
there is no reason to worry as we may see markets resuming the
strength beyond 11850-11900 to surpass the 12000 mark
convincingly.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
In the week gone by, we witnessed some sectoral shift in the market
in the second half. The recent outperforming IT space had seen some
decent profit booking along with Reliance; whereas on the other
side, the banking which was considered to be a laggard has shown
some serious strength to support the market. Hence going ahead, if
Nifty has to resume the uptrend, the banking clearly plays a vital role
in this. Apart from this, Midcaps are yet to perform and hence, the
breakout in this index should bring back some excitement in the
traders’ fraternity.
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 11680 Resistance 1 – 11850
Support 2 – 11600 Resistance2 – 11900
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 19, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10800
11000
11200
11400
11600
11800
12000
12200
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9/30 10/5 10/7 10/9 10/13 10/15
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
On the weekly expiry session, the global markets were
trading with deep cuts and thus, traders preferred to
book profits on the long positions. Our markets too
corrected sharply and ended the weekly expiry below
11700 mark. On Friday, Nifty recovered marginally but
still, it ended below the 11800.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 480 crores. In index future segment, they sold worth
Rs. 42 crores with decrease in open interest of 7 percent,
indicating unwinding of some long as well as short
positions.
The indices corrected mainly due to profit booking as
the open interest in both Nifty and Bank Nifty declined
by over 5 percent. FII’s too unwound some of their longs
in the index futures segment and their ‘Long Short
Ratio’ now stands at 66 percent. For this week, the data
indicates a probable trading range of 11700-12000 for
Nifty and a breakout beyond this range could then lead
to some directional move. Till the index consolidates
within this range, traders are advised to look for stock
specific trading opportunities and take aggressive trade
only on a breakout from the range.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 6.66%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 5.16%
as market closed at 11762.45 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 2.7
point against a premium of 5.20 point in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of 20.1
point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 22.06 to 21.64.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 0.99
to 1.31.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are PNB, COAL INDIA, IDEA, TATAPOWER AND
BANKBARODA.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
UPL 13509600 54.41 466.95 -7.49
DLF 31270800 12.76 162.55 5.08
AMBUJACEM 18123000 9.34 248.00 2.14
ACC 2334000 9.04 1561.15 2.56
SRF 631250 8.98 4451.00 2.75
ZEEL 35559000 8.77 175.70 -2.05
VOLTAS 2371000 8.61 700.50 4.10
JSWSTEEL 42525000 7.45 311.05 7.09
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MINDTREE 1312800 -12.76 1329.25 -7.20
CADILAHC 5801400 -5.82 430.40 3.13
ESCORTS 2889700 -5.77 1167.50 -1.86
INFY 38575200 -5.32 1127.50 1.50
RBLBANK 16234400 -4.25 172.00 3.32
TCS 7735200 -4.18 2763.30 0.69
PVR 1624337 -4.04 1181.50 -2.74
APOLLOTYRE 9575000 -3.77 128.20 2.59
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.31 0.92
BANKNIFTY 0.93 0.81
RELIANCE 0.48 0.63
ICICIBANK 0.59 0.58
INFY 0.36 0.50
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
UPL 59.00
MINDTREE 60.73
JSWSTEEL 58.15
CUMMINSIND 41.37
VOLTAS 43.74
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 19, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11762.45
FII Statistics for October 16, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
4061.40
4103.65
(42.25) 140088
11231.21
(7.20)
INDEX
OPTIONS
188433.04
187760.43
672.61
900174
72618.02
9.11
STOCK
FUTURES
14378.03
14238.86
139.17
1116022
79127.53
(0.29)
STOCK
OPTIONS
6303.20
6249.39
53.81
103932
8149.93
0.10
Total 213175.67
212352.33
823.34
2260216
171126.69
2.78
Turnover on October 16, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
4,74,726 32729.19 -24.03
Index Options
1,75,66,909 12,54,660.23 -77.59
Stock Futures
7,23,284 55917.39 -10.06
Stock Options
12,46,592 1,05,193.16 -12.72
Total 2,00,11,511 14,48,499.97 -75.13
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11800 143.95
46.55 53.45 11846.55
Sell 11900 97.40
Buy 11800 143.95
82.15 117.85 11882.15
Sell 12000 61.80
Buy 11900 97.40
35.60 64.40 11935.60
Sell 12000 61.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11700 136.95
35.20 64.80 11664.80
Sell 11600 101.75
Buy 11700 136.95
61.10 138.90 11638.90
Sell 11500 75.85
Buy 11600 101.75
25.90 74.10 11574.10
Sell 11500 75.85
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000 12100 12200 12300
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 19, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
336
343
349
356
362
ASIANPAINT 2,034 2,048
2,069
2,082
2,103
AXISBANK
458
465
470
478
483
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,992 3,019
3,055
3,082
3,118
BAJFINANCE 3,124 3,178
3,224
3,277
3,323
BAJAJFINSV 5,819 5,886
5,933
6,000
6,047
BPCL
321
331
337
346
353
BHARTIARTL
393
398
402
407
411
BRITANNIA 3,691 3,719
3,749
3,777
3,807
CIPLA
747
765
776
794
805
COALINDIA
108
110
111
113
114
DIVISLAB 3,072 3,147
3,190
3,265
3,308
DRREDDY 4,970 5,025
5,075
5,130
5,180
EICHERMOT 2,225 2,248
2,266
2,289
2,307
GAIL
82
83
84
85
85
GRASIM
740
756
766
783
793
HCLTECH
785
806
842
863
898
HDFCBANK 1,161 1,180
1,192
1,211
1,222
HDFCLIFE
556
558
562
565
569
HDFC 1,917 1,939
1,962
1,984
2,006
HEROMOTOCO 3,254 3,300
3,347
3,394
3,441
HINDALCO
169
175
178
183
186
HINDUNILVR 2,128 2,139
2,156
2,167
2,183
ICICIBANK
385
391
396
401
407
IOC
73
74
74
75
76
INDUSINDBK
595
602
608
614
620
INFY 1,081 1,104
1,120
1,143
1,159
ITC
162
164
165
167
168
JSW STEEL
283
297
305
319
326
KOTAKBANK 1,295 1,316
1,329
1,350
1,364
LT
882
888
896
902
910
M&M
589
598
611
620
633
MARUTI 6,796 6,845
6,913
6,962
7,030
NESTLEIND 15,096
15,263
15,542
15,709
15,987
NTPC
78
79
80
81
82
ONGC
65
66
67
68
68
POWERGRID
153
156
159
162
164
RELIANCE 2,134 2,155
2,194
2,215
2,254
SBILIFE
788
794
802
808
817
SHREECEM 20,376
20,777
21,051
21,451
21,725
SBIN
190
193
195
198
200
SUNPHARMA
479
483
489
493
498
TCS 2,715 2,739
2,755
2,780
2,796
TATAMOTORS
124
126
128
130
132
TATASTEEL
368
381
388
401
409
TECHM
787
805
817
834
846
TITAN 1,202 1,213
1,226
1,237
1,250
ULTRACEMCO 4,337 4,409
4,453
4,525
4,569
UPL
440
453
472
485
503
WIPRO
333
336
342
346
352
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 19, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com