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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 16, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (19913)
The Banking index started trading for the week on a negative note
and corrected during the day to breach the 20000 mark. Post
registering a low around 19750, the index saw mild recovery at
the end and ended with a loss of over 700 points.
The index has retraced much of Friday's move from lower levels
yesterday but is hovering around its 20 DEMA support. Friday's
low around 19500 is around the 50 percent retracement of the
previous upmove and is thus seen as immediate support. Traders
are advised to trade with a stock specific approach in stocks within
this space. Also, from a positional perspective, one can use this
decline as a buying opportunity. The immediate resistance for the
index is seen around 20500 and 20800.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 19650 Resistance 1 – 20500
Support 2 – 19500 Resistance 2 – 20800
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (33229) / Nifty (9814)
It seems that the rising concerns over the second wave of
coronavirus is haunting market participants across the globe. The
US markets had already fallen nearly 10% last week and yesterday
morning, the start for the Dow Jones Futures was very much in
continuation with this sell off. This clearly had a rub off effect on
our markets as well and hence, post the moderate gap down
opening, we extended losses in the first half to test sub-9750
levels. Fortunately, the damage was not as severe as it was looking
at one point. Due to decent recovery in the last couple of hours,
the Nifty managed to reclaim the 9800 mark at the close.
Friday’s v-shaped recovery turned out to be a deception for most
of the bulls and including us, most of the participants expected a
good start yesterday. But markets are superior and such deceiving
nature is a part and parcel of the market. Now taking a glance at
the daily chart of global markets, mainly DOW JONES and DAX,
we can observe a cluster of supports for both these indices and
the next couple of days could be the trend deciding sessions. At
our end, we still remain hopeful and expect the Nifty not to fall
below 9500 now. Before this, 9750 9675 can be seen as intraday
supports. On the flipside, 9925 10000 remains to be a sturdy
wall and if the index has to regain any strength, it needs to again
enter a five-digit territory soon.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
At present, traders are advised not to get carried away by this global
sell off and should ideally stick to stock centric approach. The
midcap index is interestingly poised and hence, if we see a reversal
in major indices, the broader market is likely to outperform.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 9750 Resistance 1 – 9925
Support 2 – 9675 Resistance 2 – 10000
Technical & Derivatives Report
June 16, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
9600
9700
9800
9900
10000
10100
10200
10300
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/15
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iew
s
The week started on mild negative note however the
sell off continued for the major part of the session and
eventually after a minor recovery in the last hour Nifty
ended with cuts of 1.60% at 9813.70.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 2960 crores. In index futures, they sold worth
355 crores with decrease in open interest indicating
long unwinding in yesterday’s session.
The indices corrected in yesterday's session following
the negative global cues. The Nifty witnessed
unwinding of positions wherein open interest reduced
by over 4 percent. FII's were net sellers in cash segment
whereas they squared off some of their index futures
longs. In options segment, open interest addition was
seen in call options of 9900 and above strikes whereas
some open interest addition was seen in 9700-9500
put options too. As per the options data, support for
Nifty is placed around 9500 and till this support is
intact, traders can look to buy on declines from a near
term perspective.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 4.12%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.90%
as market closed at 9813.70 levels.
The Nifty June future closed with a premium of 0.05 point
against a discount of 17.55 point in last trading session.
The July series closed at a discount of 16.7 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 30.82 to 32.57
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.47 to 1.34.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are BHEL, DLF, PNB, KOTAKBANK and GMRINFRA.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
PAGEIND 129255 11.30 17775.05 -4.32
DIVISLAB 3263200 8.79 2335.05 -2.53
RECLTD 20394000 7.67 104.70 -1.51
NATIONALUM 32571700 7.61 30.10 -4.60
IDFCFIRSTB 134272000 7.47 25.25 -2.89
RELIANCE 28227985 6.47 1614.55 1.77
ITC 64602400 6.39 187.20 -3.20
CUMMINSIND 1308000 5.90 393.50 -0.18
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SRTRANSFIN 2668000 -17.45 672.85 -2.08
MGL 988800 -16.47 1069.80 -0.92
NCC 21852000 -16.11 29.15 -4.89
MFSL 1926600 -14.73 475.55 -2.95
UBL 1202600 -14.36 1006.75 -1.19
BHEL 49207200 -11.70 29.10 -6.86
APOLLOTYRE 8629000 -11.36 106.90 0.33
IDEA 284382000 -10.64 10.15 -0.49
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.34 0.87
BANKNIFTY 0.86 0.89
RELIANCE 0.73 0.35
ICICIBANK 0.53 0.65
INFY 0.47 0.45
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BHEL 68.17
NTPC 38.91
PAGEIND 50.19
NATIONALUM 55.41
RAMCOCEM 45.11
Technical & Derivatives Report
June 16, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (June Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
9813.70
FII Statistics for June 15, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
7920.38
8275.40
(355.02) 123580
7886.10
(4.88)
INDEX
OPTIONS
218936.96
218686.80
250.16
805539
52833.63
4.39
STOCK
FUTURES
16251.02
18278.25
(2027.23) 1540158
81285.50
0.66
STOCK
OPTIONS
5628.99
5695.51
(66.52) 106143
5834.71
5.08
Total 248737.35
250935.96
(2198.61) 2575420
147839.94
1.69
Turnover on June 15, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 7,38,251 39472.05 -15.77
Index Options 1,82,62,521
10,39,275.19 9.38
Stock Futures 10,12,314 53169.55 -9.03
Stock Options 12,15,458 70943.45 -4.79
Total 2,12,28,544
12,02,860.24 6.45
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 9800 225.40
51.60 48.40 9851.60
Sell 9900 173.80
Buy 9800 225.40
94.80 105.20 9894.80
Sell 10000 130.60
Buy 9900 173.80
43.20 56.80 9943.20
Sell 10000 130.60
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 9800 212.05
40.65 59.35 9759.35
Sell 9700 171.40
Buy 9800 212.05
74.95 125.05 9725.05
Sell 9600 137.10
Buy 9700 171.40
34.30 65.70 9665.70
Sell 9600 137.10
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 16, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
331
335
341
345
351
ASIANPAINT 1,575 1,597
1,624
1,645
1,672
AXISBANK
371
380
393
402
415
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,671 2,700
2,737
2,766
2,803
BAJFINANCE 2,272 2,312
2,371
2,411
2,470
BAJAJFINSV 4,949 5,026
5,154
5,231
5,358
BPCL
346
354
364
371
381
BHARTIARTL
540
545
554
560
569
INFRATEL
212
217
223
229
234
BRITANNIA 3,306 3,332
3,369
3,395
3,432
CIPLA
628
636
645
652
661
COALINDIA
128
130
133
135
137
DRREDDY 3,867 3,940
4,033
4,106
4,200
EICHERMOT 15,628
16,055
16,703
17,130
17,778
GAIL
92
96
99
103
106
GRASIM
556
569
590
603
624
HCLTECH
557
568
575
585
592
HDFCBANK
925
937
956
968
987
HDFC 1,682 1,717
1,761
1,796
1,840
HEROMOTOCO
2,274
2,311
2,353
2,390
2,432
HINDALCO
139
142
147
151
156
HINDUNILVR 2,016 2,050
2,091
2,125
2,166
ICICIBANK
316
324
333
340
350
IOC
84
85
87
88
89
INDUSINDBK
458
474
500
516
541
INFY
673
680
692
700
712
ITC
182
184
189
192
197
JSW STEEL
177
180
183
187
190
KOTAKBANK 1,218 1,234
1,252
1,268
1,286
LT
872
886
908
922
943
M&M
487
498
509
520
532
MARUTI 5,290 5,383
5,484
5,577
5,678
NESTLEIND 16,193
16,297
16,473
16,577
16,753
NTPC
90
92
94
96
99
ONGC
81
83
84
86
87
POWERGRID
161
162
164
165
167
RELIANCE 1,535 1,575
1,601
1,641
1,667
SHREECEM 21,465
21,791
22,076
22,402
22,687
SBIN
169
171
175
177
180
SUNPHARMA
466
476
483
493
499
TCS 1,972 2,001
2,030
2,059
2,088
TATAMOTORS
97
99
102
103
106
TATASTEEL
296
301
308
313
320
TECHM
534
541
551
558
568
TITAN
918
933
960
975
1,002
ULTRACEMCO 3,653 3,699
3,734
3,780
3,814
UPL
392
398
405
411
418
VEDANTA
99
101
103
105
107
WIPRO
204
209
213
218
223
ZEEL
155
160
169
174
182
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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 16, 2020
*
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com