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Technical & Derivatives Report
August 03, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (21640)
On Friday, the Banknifty index started on a flat note however the
rub-off effect from the previous session immediately pulled the
index lower. Fortunately, the damage was not much and after a
choppy session, the bank index eventually ended near
the opening levels tad below 21650 levels. During the last week,
we have been mentioning the bank nifty trading in a rising channel
pattern and for the last few sessions, the prices has been gyrating
around the lower range of the pattern. Now prices are also trading
around the 50SMA which previously acted as support and hence
next few sessions of this week will be very crucial for the near term
direction. If weakness continues then bank index may head
towards 21150 and 21000 levels however on the flip side, the
index needs to break above 22350 for a probability of any
pullback move. Traders are advised to keep positions light and
have a stock-specific approach within the sector.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21150 Resistance 1 – 22000
Support 2 – 21000 Resistance 2 – 22350
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (37607) / Nifty (11073)
During the last week, the market started the proceedings on a
sluggish note in the absence of any trigger on the domestic as well
as global front. On the following day, we witnessed a good broad-
based rally to mark fresh 4-months high beyond the 11300 mark.
However, the way things looked at the end of Tuesday’s session, it
just turned out to be an illusion in the remaining part of the week.
Although there were a couple of attempts made around 11300, the
market was unable to display the strength in a similar fashion. As a
result, we witnessed some profit taking in the latter part of the week
to conclude around the lower end of the weekly range.
Market finally snapped its six-week winning streak due to some
weakness around 11300. However, the damage is not big and
hence, as of now should only be interpreted as a profit booking after
a relentless rally. Towards the end of the week, we were seeing
11050 as a key support; but the way markets behaved on Friday
around it, this does not appear to be an important support. Hence,
we would rather extend the range slightly on downside and would
observe key supports around 10950-10870 for the forthcoming
week. In case if profit booking extends towards these mentioned
levels, it should still be considered as a corrective move and not the
actual trend reversal. In our sense, the actual weakness would start
only if Nifty sustains below 10870 and hence, till then one should
continue with a stock specific positive bias. However, on the flipside,
11300-11350 has also become a strong ceiling and the fresh leg of
the rally would only unfold above this. Till then traders are advised
to remain light within a slightly bigger range of 10870 – 11350.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
For the early part of the week,
11200
-
11250
should be
considered as an immediate resistance zone. The banking space
has been the weakest link and the way it’s placed, the directional
move in benchmark would mainly be triggered by the banking
stocks only. Hence, all eyes would be on it. Apart from this, the
entire Pharma space has been once again on a roll after a brief
pause and there were some other sectoral movers also, that kept
buzzing and bucking the trend. So, the pragmatic approach
would be to focus on individual stocks till the time market
remains in the above-mentioned range.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11000 Resistance 1 – 11200
Support 2 – 10950 Resistance 2 – 11250
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Nifty Vs OI
10850
10900
10950
11000
11050
11100
11150
11200
11250
11300
11350
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
During the week, Nifty surpassed the 11300 mark,
however it failed to sustain above that and witnessed
some correction around expiry to end the week with a
loss of over a percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 959 crores. In index futures, the activity was
muted as they bought worth 30 crores with increase in
open interest
.
The rollover in Nifty is at 77.59 percent, which is in line
with its 3-month average of 77.40 percent, whereas
rollover in Bank Nifty is at 75.30 percent v/s its average
of 79 percent. FII’s have carried more of their long
positions to the new series and their ‘Long Short’ Ratio
in index futures segment is tad over 66 percent. The
weekly options data indicates support around 11000
mark and resistance at 11200-11300. If we look at the
sector specific build up, it is seen that the stocks from
the Cement and the Pharma sector have added good
amount of long positions which have been rolled too.
So, traders should look for stocks from these sectors for
short term trading opportunities.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.01%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.84%
as market closed at 11073.45 levels.
The Nifty August future closed with a premium of 22.4
point against a discount of 8.75 point in last trading
session. The September series closed at a premium of
26.4 point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 24.72 to 24.19
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.49 to 1.31.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, NATIONALUM, GODREJPROP, PNB
AND CADILAHC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDEA 210840000 69.98 8.40 4.94
CHOLAFIN 7567500 61.35 202.50 -5.38
GODREJPROP 453050 49.25 926.60 6.77
CADILAHC 9875800 18.41 388.40 6.38
TORNTPHARM 2010500 16.21 2663.55 9.40
IBULHSGFIN 12316300 14.63 190.00 -4.84
GLENMARK 6207700 14.17 452.35 2.53
SAIL 39596000 14.13 34.00 -0.73
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
UJJIVAN 2743400 -12.68 235.85 2.46
SRF 638750 -7.29 3793.05 1.05
TATAPOWER 52096500 -6.70 48.70 1.14
NIITTECH 454875 -6.69 1926.25 -0.46
VOLTAS 2440000 -5.06 598.35 0.82
BAJFINANCE 5684000 -4.91 3251.30 1.60
EICHERMOT 256760 -4.49 20638.70 -1.82
MARUTI 2498500 -4.05 6262.65 -0.32
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.31 0.93
BANKNIFTY 0.73 0.85
RELIANCE 0.71 0.60
ICICIBANK 0.53 0.55
INFY 0.98 0.68
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
SRTRANSFIN 82.68
ZEEL 87.99
NIITTECH 71.54
NMDC 59.16
MFSL 81.25
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Technical & Derivatives Report
August 03, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (August Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11073.45
FII Statistics for July 31, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
4273.18
4242.84
30.34
118835
9014.61
2.75
INDEX
OPTIONS
155206.51
154960.27
246.24
588825
45627.15
18.24
STOCK
FUTURES
16790.73
17419.83
(629.10) 1227764
85126.39
1.55
STOCK
OPTIONS
5953.75
5698.06
255.69
47585
3210.13
115.20
Total 182224.17
182321.00
(96.83) 1983009
142978.28
7.49
Turnover on July 31, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,03,725 32717.54 -29.19
Index Options 1,40,18,250
9,59,974.31 -75.61
Stock Futures 9,17,761 66746.11 3548.28
Stock Options 10,02,127 77694.49 -20.26
Total 1,64,41,863
11,37,132.45 -72.85
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11100 265.25
50.05 49.95 11150.05
Sell 11200 215.20
Buy 11100 265.25
93.65 106.35 11193.65
Sell 11300 171.60
Buy 11200 215.20
43.60 56.40 11243.60
Sell 11300 171.60
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11100 270.10
41.95 58.05 11058.05
Sell 11000 228.15
Buy 11100 270.10
81.40 118.60 11018.60
Sell 10900 188.70
Buy 11000 228.15
39.45 60.55 10960.55
Sell 10900 188.70
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
310
313
315
318
321
ASIANPAINT 1,672 1,694
1,732
1,754
1,793
AXISBANK
416
424
4
29
437
442
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,939 2,972
3,025
3,058
3,111
BAJFINANCE 3,143 3,197
3,235
3,289
3,327
BAJAJFINSV 6,025 6,116
6,210
6,301
6,395
BPCL
400
407
418
424
435
BHARTIARTL
540
548
553
561
566
INFRATEL
185
188
192
196
200
BRITANNIA 3,
769
3,796
3,828
3,855
3,887
CIPLA
673
697
710
734
747
COALINDIA
126
128
129
130
131
DRREDDY 4,414 4,467
4,509
4,563
4,605
EICHERMOT 19,978
20,308
20,897
21,228
21,817
GAIL
95
96
97
98
99
GRASIM
589
611
624
646
659
HCLTECH
685
695
706
716
727
HDFCBANK
999
1,016
1,037
1,054
1,075
HDFC
609
618
628
637
647
HEROMOTOCO
1,732
1,757
1,784
1,809
1,836
HINDALCO 2,614 2,645
2,678
2,709
2,741
HINDUNILVR
158
160
162
165
167
ICICIBANK 2,159 2,185
2,203
2,229
2,247
IOC
336
342
347
353
358
INDUSINDBK
86
87
89
90
91
INFY
510
517
523
530
535
ITC
935
951
969
984
1,002
JSW STEEL
191
193
195
196
198
KOTAKBANK
210
215
218
223
226
LT 1,329 1,347
1,369
1,387
1,408
M&M
899
906
914
922
930
MARUTI 584
595
603
614
622
NESTLEIND 6,113 6,188
6,284
6,359
6,455
NTPC 16,301
16,412
16,543
16,654
16,785
ONGC
86
86
87
88
88
POWERGRID
76
77
78
79
80
RELIANCE
175
177
178
180
181
SHREECEM 2,007 2,037
2,083
2,113
2,159
SBIN 21,110
21,411
21
,650
21,951
22,190
SUNPHARMA
183
187
191
195
199
TCS
493
512
527
546
560
TATAMOTORS 2,214 2,248
2,291
2,325
2,369
TATASTEEL
101
103
104
106
107
TECHM
356
361
366
371
376
TITAN
668
675
680
687
692
ULTRACEMCO 1,020 1,030
1,038
1,04
8
1,057
UPL 4,023 4,070
4,140
4,187
4,256
VEDANTA
449
464
475
489
501
WIPRO
271
276
283
288
296
ZEEL
136
138
139
141
142
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August 03, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com