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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 31, 2019
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Sensex (40052) / Nifty (11844)
Tuesday’s strong broad based rally was followed by a decent
bump up at the opening yesterday. However, it was merely a
formality as we immediately witnessed index correcting back to
its previous close. Fortunately, the correction was restricted
within first half an hour and thereafter, index continued its
gradual march towards the opening point. Despite some small
hiccups in the latter half, index managed to close well inside the
positive territory.
Looking at Tuesday’s price development, we sounded extremely
gung-ho on the market and yesterday’s gap up opening was
very much on expected lines. However, the follow up move was
clearly missing, especially in the banking space. Nonetheless, we
still remain sanguine and expect this rally to extend towards the
next immediate level of 11900 first and then towards the
magical figure of 12000. Any intraday dip is likely to be bought
into and hence, without hesitating much, one should use dips to
go long as long as previous day’s low is not broken. For the
coming session, 11800 11784 would now be seen as
immediate support base.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11800 Resistance 1 – 11900
Support 2 – 11784 Resistance 2 – 12000
Exhibit 1: Nifty
Daily
Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook - (29987)
The BankNifty started the session on a positive note yesterday.
However, the index oscillated within a broad range of 400 points
and ended near the opening levels with gains of about four-
tenths of a percent.
The BankNifty witnessed further upmove and surpassed 30000
level during the day. The near term trend continues to be
positive and hence, we continue with our positive stance on this
sector. The PSU Banking space witnessed some good
outperformance as the Nifty PSU Bank index posted gains over
three and a half percent yesterday. This beaten down space too
have now started witnessing some revival and hence, the overall
banking space seem to be providing good stock specific
opportunities to day traders as well for short term trading. As far
as levels are concerned, a falling trendline resistance in the index
is seen around 30300-30350 whereas the immediate supports
are placed around 29750 and 29500.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29750 Resistance 1 – 30300
Support 2 – 29500 Resistance 2 – 30350
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank
Daily
Chart
Although, the overall intraday movement in index was a bit
lethargic, there were many individual themes that played out
well in the market yesterday, amongst which PSU sector was
clearly on a roll. Do keep an eye on this along with the midcap
universe.
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
The Nifty continued the upmove in yesterdays session
to add gains of another half a percent. The open
interest in the Nifty reduced by over 3 percent in
yesterday indicating that some short postions were
covered.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 7192.42 cr. In Index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 997 crores with a rise in open interest,
indicating formation of short positions.
Post surpassing the hurdle of 11700 in Tuesday’s
session, the index continued its upmove in yesterday’s
session. Although FII’s have recently formed good
amount of long positions in index futures, yesterday’s
figures were a bit surprising as they have formed some
short positions. However, being an expiry day today,
we would reaccess their positions at end of the day
post expiry. In options segment, 11800 put witnessed
decent amount of addition in open interest indicating
that it could act as a support today. Hence, we advise
traders to continue to trade with a positive bias.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
3.27%. Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased
3.73% as market closed at 11844.10 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a discount of 3.90
points against a premium of 8.60 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
45 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 16.42 to 16.65.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty remain
unchanged at 1.48.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are
IDEA, CASTROLIND, CUMMINSIND,
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
UBL 2004100 19.24 1265.55 -1.96
PNB 118286000 13.75 63.70 2.82
TATACHEM 2406600 11.32 614.30 -1.56
IGL 3665750 10.53 384.05 0.67
EXIDEIND 13612800 10.33 181.50 -0.82
BANKINDIA 24462000 8.98 71.05 5.72
MFSL 2715600 8.23 411.25 -0.95
EQUITAS 12032000 7.81 94.70 -1.81
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
STAR 822000 -35.07 390.75 2.33
RAMCOCEM 1417600 -21.56 776.00 3.91
PETRONET 20640000 -19.16 285.50 2.20
VOLTAS 2021000 -18.54 712.95 -0.71
APOLLOTYRE 6102000 -18.21 187.80 0.45
INFRATEL 13560000 -18.07 183.20 -5.16
CASTROLIND 6667400 -13.23 153.30 1.79
INDIGO 3772200 -13.03 1512.05 7.10
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.48 1.02
BANKNIFTY 1.28 0.90
RELIANCE 1.08 0.73
ICICIBANK 1.62 0.82
INFY 0.50 0.38
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
GAIL 43.33
NIITTECH 33.22
RAMCOCEM 33.95
INDIGO 70.98
TATAGLOBAL 29.76
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October 31, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11844.10
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
October
30, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
10479.49 11476.10 (996.61) 198573 16546.40 3.82
INDEX
OPTIONS
253284.63 251191.46 2093.17
847040 69454.22 16.82
STOCK
FUTURES
41481.09 41634.18 (153.09) 1481137 91267.70 (1.68)
STOCK
OPTIONS
4551.01 4312.64 238.37
93584 5330.77 (15.11)
Total 309796.22
308614.38
1181.84
2620334
182599.09
3.45
Turnover on
October
30
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
507810 38643.67 4.69
INDEX
OPTIONS
16669992 1163795.61 16.44
STOCK
FUTURES
2222640 132084.39 8.64
STOCK
OPTIONS
1070405 65565.46 -16.67
TOTAL 2,04,70,847 1400089.13 13.22
Bull
-
Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11800 60.70
45.90 54.10 11845.90
Sell 11900 14.80
Buy 11800 60.70
57.60 142.40 11857.60
Sell 12000 3.10
Buy 11900 14.80
11.70 88.30 11911.70
Sell 12000 3.10
Bear
-
Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11800 22.15
16.20 83.80 11783.80
Sell 11700 5.95
Buy 11800 22.15
19.70 180.30 11780.30
Sell 11600 2.45
Buy 11700 5.95
3.50 96.50 11696.50
Sell 11600 2.45
Nifty Put
-
Call Analysis
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October 31, 2019
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS 390 394
400 404
409
ASIANPAINT 1,792 1,807
1,818 1,833 1,844
AXISBANK 730 739
744 753
759
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,152 3,188
3,208 3,244 3,265
BAJFINANCE 3,927 3,960
4,017 4,050 4,107
BAJAJFINSV 7,976 8,029
8,114 8,167 8,252
BPCL 510 518
526 534
542
BHARTIARTL 356 362
367 373
377
INFRATEL 163 173
186 197
210
BRITANNIA 3,199 3,244
3,322 3,367 3,445
CIPLA 452 459
469 475
485
COALINDIA 202 204
208 210
213
DRREDDY 2,689 2,725
2,777 2,812 2,864
EICHERMOT 21,238 21,875
22,237 22,874 23,236
GAIL 123 128
131 137
139
GRASIM 704 719
730 746
757
HCLTECH 1,133 1,140
1,145 1,152 1,157
HDFCBANK 1,232 1,240
1,251 1,260 1,271
HDFC 2,083 2,095
2,115 2,127 2,147
HEROMOTOCO
2,653
2,669
2,693
2,709
2,733
HINDALCO 182 185
187 190
192
HINDUNILVR 2,126 2,148
2,164 2,186 2,202
ICICIBANK 464 468
473 477
482
IOC 144 145
147 149
151
INDUSINDBK 1,260 1,278
1,301 1,320 1,343
INFY 648 654
663 669
678
ITC 250 254
259 264
269
JSW STEEL 229 231
234 237
240
KOTAKBANK 1,566 1,572
1,580 1,587 1,595
LT 1,450 1,462
1,477 1,489 1,504
M&M 599 608
614 623
629
MARUTI 7,403 7,480
7,617 7,694 7,831
NESTLEIND 14,657 14,812
14,906 15,061 15,154
NTPC 118 120
121 122
123
ONGC 137 139
141 143
146
POWERGRID 196 198
201 203
206
RELIANCE 1,450 1,465
1,475 1,489 1,499
SBIN 275 282
287 294
298
SUNPHARMA 412 421
427 435
441
TCS 2,147 2,200
2,230 2,283 2,313
TATAMOTORS 162 167
171 176
180
TATASTEEL 379 384
389 393
398
TECHM 736 745
755 764
774
TITAN 1,290 1,303
1,325 1,338 1,360
ULTRACEMCO 4,038 4,080
4,144 4,186 4,249
UPL 568 576
588 596
608
VEDANTA 148 149
150 151
153
WIPRO 249 252
256 259
264
YESBANK 54 55
57 59 61
ZEEL 226 231
238 243
250
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October 31, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresea[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.des[email protected]gelbroking.com
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