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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 31, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (18782)
Bank Nifty too started trading for the week with a gap down
opening. The index remained under selling pressure throughout
the day and ended with a loss of over 6 percent.
In yesterday's session, stocks from the Banking and Financial
services space witnessed selling pressure and hence, it was the
most underperforming sector. In last one month, we have seen
that the index heavyweights have witnessed significant selling
pressure and the names like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank
from the index heavyweights saw selling pressure yesterday too
which dragged the index down. In the near term, we expect the
higher volatility to continue and hence, traders are advised to
stay light on positions. The support for the BankNifty index is
placed in the range if 18200-18000 whereas immediate
resistances are seen around 19700 and 20600.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 18200 Resistance 1 – 19700
Support 2 – 18000 Resistance 2 – 20600
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (
28440)
/ Nifty
(
8281
)
In line with the negative global cues, the SGX Nifty hinted at a
gap down opening for our markets and hence ,we started the
week on a negative note below 8400. The index tried to recover
from the lows in the initial couple of hours, but it witnessed
selling pressure around the 8600 mark and then remained under
pressure for rest of the day to conclude with a cut of more than
four percent.
During last week, we had seen a pullback move in Nifty from the
lower levels of around 7500 to surpass the 9000 mark on Friday.
However, the global peers again witnessed some selling pressure
as there was not much relief with regards to the COVID-19 cases
across the globe. As mentioned in our earlier reports, the
markets are now not reacting to any other news as everyone is
now more concerned about the developments with regards to
this disease which has a significant impact on the human life and
the economies as well. Hence, our markets are likely to continue
to trade with higher volatility in the near term. The Banking and
the Financial services stocks were the most under-performing
names in yesterday’s session due to which the Bank Nifty index
corrected by more than 6 percent.
.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Technically, 8100-8000 is the important support zone to watch
out for the near term. If the index breaches the mentioned
support zone then we could see a continuation of the downtrend
in the broader markets. On the flipside, 8600 and 8850 will now
be be the immediate resistances on pullback moves. During such
volatile times, traders are advised to avoid trading aggressively
and trade with a proper risk management and an exit strategy.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 8100 Resistance 1 – 8600
Support 2 – 8000 Resistance 2 – 8850
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 31, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
,0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
3/5 3/9 3/12 3/16 3/18 3/20 3/24 3/26 3/30
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
ie
w
s
Nifty started with a big gap down opening and with
sell-off throughout the session ended with deep
cuts of more than 4% tad below 8300 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 4364 crores. In index futures they sold
worth 967 crores with rise in open interest indicating
fresh short positions created in yesterday’s session.
During the expiry week, FII's covered much of their
short positions due to which we had seen a relief rally
in the market. However, in yesterday's session they
again formed short positions in the index futures and
sold in cash segment too. Although the volatility index
has cooled-off a bit from the highs, its still trading
around 70 which continues to be a sign of worry. The
overall positions in the options segment is light due to
high IV's. Hence, traders are advised to trade with the
momentum on intraday basis only and avoid taking
high risk bets as the volatility could continue to be
high. The immediate support for the index is placed
around 8000 whereas resistance is seen around 8600-
8700.
Co
m
ment
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 6.18%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 6.52 %
as market closed at 8281.10 levels.
The Nifty April future closed with a premium of 9.05
points against a discount of 8.85 points in last trading
session. The May series closed at a premium of 34.4
points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 70.38 to 71.89.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.23 to 1.10.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are NCC, BANDHANBNK, JINDALSTEL,
ADANIPOWER and ADANIENT.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
GODREJPROP 17550 50.00 590.75 -13.51
BIOCON 6308900 29.20 275.60 -1.04
CUMMINSIND 558000 25.76 331.60 -8.01
JINDALSTEL 6165000 22.93 80.00 -9.98
VOLTAS 1466000 18.61 465.10 -4.35
EICHERMOT 216480 18.22 13333.50 -6.99
IOC 48972000 15.63 76.60 -0.58
LUPIN 5871600 14.57 560.60 2.08
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
COLPAL 1356600 -12.27 1208.90 3.42
ESCORTS 2070200 -7.88 601.60 -8.37
TVSMOTOR 2029050 -6.30 292.80 -2.89
ADANIPORTS 25450000 -6.20 251.65 0.06
BALKRISIND 571200 -5.56 802.00 -4.86
BANDHANBNK 9812400 -5.46 216.25 -11.52
HDFCBANK 22786500 -4.97 831.70 -6.89
RBLBANK 8478000 -3.83 150.10 -4.26
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.10 0.65
BANKNIFTY 0.65 0.52
RELIANCE 0.76 0.65
ICICIBANK 0.63 0.75
INFY 0.75 0.80
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
HAVELLS 76.97
CUMMINSIND 72.33
GODREJPROP 149.42
HDFC 120.38
SRTRANSFIN 197.99
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 31, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (April Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
8281.10
FII Statistics for March 30, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
5285.78
6252.86
(967.08) 133827
7724.87
16.27
INDEX
OPTIONS
67211.86
66730.54
481.32
473435
28386.82
5.30
STOCK
FUTURES
11591.72
9579.82
2011.90
1328807
59801.09
1.91
STOCK
OPTIONS
550.74
522.96
27.78
13163
588.48
10.77
Total 84640.10
83086.18
1553.92
1949232
96501.26
3.66
Turnover on March 30, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,58,894 28744.71 -23.74
Index Options 72,34,332 3,89,593.80 14.82
Stock Futures 6,78,989 30383.22 -20.34
Stock Options 2,50,483 12284.46 -11.68
Total 87,22,698 4,61,006.19 7.45
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8300 674.80
51.90 48.10 8351.90
Sell 8400 622.90
Buy 8300 674.80
107.40 92.60 8407.40
Sell 8500 567.40
Buy 8400 622.90
55.50 44.50 8455.50
Sell 8500 567.40
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8300 687.70
42.95 57.05 8257.05
Sell 8200 644.75
Buy 8300 687.70
90.05 109.95 8209.95
Sell 8100 597.65
Buy 8200 644.75
47.10 52.90 8152.90
Sell 8100 597.65
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1000,000
1200,000
1400,000
1600,000
1800,000
2000,000
7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
230
241
248
259
266
ASIANPAINT 1,531 1,563
1,591
1,623
1,652
AXISBANK
322
345
364
387
405
BAJAJ-AUTO 1,908 1,948
1,984
2,023
2,060
BAJFINANCE 2,106 2,174
2,294
2,362
2,483
BAJAJFINSV 4,441 4,551
4,665
4,776
4,890
BPCL
257
266
278
287
298
BHARTIARTL
415
423
436
444
457
INFRATEL
144
150
154
159
163
BRITANNIA 2,362 2,418
2,499
2,554
2,635
CIPLA
395
413
426
444
457
COALINDIA
124
129
132
136
139
DRREDDY 2,713 2,854
2,952
3,093
3,191
EICHERMOT 12,512
12,923
13,510
13,921
14,508
GAIL
65
68
70
73
75
GRASIM
417
434
455
472
493
HCLTECH
394
406
423
435
451
HDFCBANK
790
811
849
870
908
HDFC 1,451 1,505
1,602
1,656
1,753
HEROMOTOCO
1,481
1,517
1,579
1,615
1,676
HINDALCO
84
86
89
91
94
HINDUNILVR 2,057 2,120
2,167
2,231
2,277
ICICIBANK
297
305
319
328
342
IOC
73
75
77
79
80
INDUSINDBK
346
380
404
437
461
INFY
595
611
637
653
680
ITC
151
155
160
164
169
JSW STEEL
131
136
142
148
154
KOTAKBANK 1,212 1,253
1,317
1,357
1,421
LT
778
788
802
812
826
M&M
262
268
276
283
291
MARUTI 4,043 4,186
4,413
4,556
4,783
NESTLEIND 14,210
14,934
15,412
16,137
16,614
NTPC
77
79
81
84
86
ONGC
57
60
63
66
69
POWERGRID
149
153
156
159
163
RELIANCE
987
1,009
1,042
1,064
1,097
SHREECEM 15,379
16,157
16,879
17,657
18,378
SBIN
181
184
189
193
198
SUNPHARMA
298
315
330
347
362
TCS 1,674 1,726
1,816
1,868
1,957
TATAMOTORS
66
67
68
70
71
TATASTEEL
239
246
259
266
278
TECHM
468
498
515
544
562
TITAN
823
883
921
981
1,019
ULTRACEMCO 3,022 3,054
3,102
3,134
3,182
UPL
283
296
306
319
330
VEDANTA
59
60
62
63
64
WIPRO
176
180
184
188
192
ZEEL
115
120
128
133
140
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 31, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalrese[email protected]
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]
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