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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 30, 2019
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Sensex (
39832
(1
1787
)
The new SAMVAT started with a bang as most of the global
uncertainty seems to have subsided in last few days. After the
Muhurat trading day, we had a gap up opening with a small
margin. However, right from the word go, bulls dominated the
position and in fact, the momentum accelerated as the day
progressed. Eventually, the cheerful day ended tad below the
11800 mark, adding nearly one and half a percent to the bulls’
kitty.
Since last few days, the Nifty has been struggling to surpass the
sturdy wall of 11700 and yesterday finally, we managed to see a
decisive price action beyond this crucial hurdle. Undoubtedly, it
was evident to have such intraday rally after crossing 11700 and
within no time, we hastened towards the next psychological
junction of 11800. Our recent anticipation of breaking above
11700 has turned into a reality and hence we remain sanguine
for the next immediate level of 11900 first and then a march
towards 12000 is very much on cards now. In case of any dip
towards 11750 11700, without hesitating much, one should
construe this as a very good buying opportunity as we expect the
previous resistance to now act as a sheet anchor for the index.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11750 Resistance 1 – 11900
Support 2 – 11700 Resistance 2 – 12000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
29873
)
BankNifty too started on a positive note and surpassed last week's
hurdle of 29700. The index then traded with a positive bias
throughout the day and ended with gains of over 350 points.
During last week, we had observed that the previous breakout
level of 28900 acted as a support on corrective declines. The
index pulled back higher from this support and it surpassed last
week's hurdle of 29700 in yesterday's session. Yesterday's up
move was also supported by a broad based rally which is a sign
of a continuation of the uptrend. Thus, the index is forming a
Higher Top Higher Bottom structure on the lower time frame chart
and till this is intact, we continue with our positive stance on this
sector. The immediate supports for the index are placed around
29700 and 29385 whereas this upmove could get extend
towards 30200-30350.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29700 Resistance 1 – 30200
Support 2 – 29385 Resistance 2 – 30350
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Yesterday
’s rally had a broad based participation and hence
should be considered as a robust one. Although, the banking
index has been a notch behind, we will not be surprised to see a
good catch up move from this high beta index. The Metal
counters finally seem to have come out of the slumber; we expect
this traction to continue in this China-sensitive space. Not to
forget, the MIDCAP50 index has confirmed a breakout on daily
chart, indicates improvement in the overall market breadth.
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Nifty Vs OI
Vie
ws
Trading for the new Samvat started on a positive note
and the index surpassed the recent hurdle of 11700.
Nifty then continued the positive momentum to end the
day tad below the 11800 mark.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 876.64 cr. In Index futures, they bought
worth Rs. 1243 crores with a rise in open interest,
indicating formation of long positions.
Nifty surpassed the hurdle of 11700 and rallied higher
with formation of long positions yesterday. FII’s too
have bought equities in cash segment and have formed
good amount of long positions in the futures segment
as well.In options segment, 11700 put option witnessed
good amount of writing and hence, the support base
has now shifted higher to 11700. Hence, we advise
traders to trade with a positive bias and use any
intraday declines as buying opportunity.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.45%.
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 0.33%
as market closed at 11786.85 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 8.6
points against a discount of 2.15 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
57.65 points.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 15.58 to 16.42.
At the same time, the PCR-
OI of Nifty has increased
from 1.22 to 1.48.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are TATAGLOBAL, JUSTDIAL,
FEDERALBNK
,
NCC
and
YESBANK
.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOHOSP 1591000 18.11 1431.00 -6.47
SRF 1122000 16.97 2819.55 -1.58
PETRONET 25533000 10.78 279.15 2.55
JUSTDIAL 2958200 10.69 600.10 -4.40
HEXAWARE 2520000 9.45 328.15 -3.38
VOLTAS 2481000 9.15 719.75 2.23
MINDTREE 1611000 9.01 713.00 -0.08
TATAPOWER 59454000 8.96 58.45 0.60
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
STAR 1266000 -34.06 381.50 3.06
L&TFH 39762000 -12.61 94.90 6.09
BANKINDIA 22446000 -11.98 67.20 1.74
SBIN 108654000 -9.43 280.65 -0.18
JUBLFOOD 2950500 -9.02 1579.65 3.06
RBLBANK 15836400 -8.39 276.40 6.78
IOC 45468500 -8.31 144.35 1.12
CIPLA 12698000 -8.28 473.05 2.35
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.48 0.94
BANKNIFTY 1.41 0.78
RELIANCE 0.98 0.55
ICICIBANK 1.58 0.71
INFY 0.48 0.39
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
INDIGO 64.93
MARICO 34.91
TATAMTRDVR 127.28
TATAMOTORS 124.29
INFRATEL 75.31
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11
786
.
85
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
October
2
9
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
11815.37 10572.09 1243.28
191266 15870.78 7.53
INDEX
OPTIONS
222902.39 220352.92 2549.47
725077 59340.83 7.93
STOCK
FUTURES
41507.39 41280.19 227.20
1506420 92350.02 (3.07)
STOCK
OPTIONS
6847.46 6840.48 6.98
110235 6256.05 (3.73)
Total 283072.61
279045.68
4026.93
2532998
173817.68
0.59
Turnover on
October
2
9
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
489667 36911.15 28.30
INDEX
OPTIONS
14061832 999462.45 35.05
STOCK
FUTURES
2163255 121575.93 52.19
STOCK
OPTIONS
1385480 78683.19 3.59
TOTAL 1,81,00,234
1236632.72 33.74
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11800 50.50
32.60 67.40 11832.60
Sell 11900 17.90
Buy 11800 50.50
44.35 155.65 11844.35
Sell 12000 6.15
Buy 11900 17.90
11.75 88.25 11911.75
Sell 12000 6.15
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11800 55.60
34.60 65.40 11765.40
Sell 11700 21.00
Buy 11800 55.60
46.95 153.05 11753.05
Sell 11600 8.65
Buy 11700 21.00
12.35 87.65 11687.65
Sell 11600 8.65
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 397 398
399 401 402
ASIANPAINT 1,755 1,785
1,802 1,832 1,850
AXISBANK 690 714
729 753 767
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,111 3,146
3,172 3,207 3,234
BAJFINANCE 3,926 3,986
4,023 4,084 4,121
BAJAJFINSV 7,951 8,051
8,113 8,213 8,274
BPCL 509 516
525 532 541
BHARTIARTL 347 353
360 366 372
INFRATEL 176 185
199 208 223
BRITANNIA 3,218 3,285
3,326 3,393 3,434
CIPLA 455 464
471 480 488
COALINDIA 196 203
207 214 217
DRREDDY 2,725 2,764
2,792 2,831 2,859
EICHERMOT 21,015 21,532
21,841 22,358 22,667
GAIL 121 123
125 128 130
GRASIM 675 695
708 728 741
HCLTECH 1,120 1,130
1,138 1,148 1,156
HDFCBANK 1,226 1,234
1,246 1,254 1,266
HDFC 2,061 2,087
2,105 2,131 2,150
HEROMOTOCO 2,642 2,672
2,696 2,726 2,750
HINDALCO 179 182
185 187 191
HINDUNILVR 2,093 2,126
2,145 2,179 2,198
ICICIBANK 460 469
475 484 491
IOC 142 143
145 146 148
INDUSINDBK 1,240 1,278
1,302 1,339 1,364
INFY 644 647
650 654 657
ITC 247 250
253 256 258
JSW STEEL 213 224
230 241 247
KOTAKBANK 1,551 1,563
1,580 1,593 1,610
LT 1,419 1,440
1,452 1,474 1,486
M&M 582 597
607 622 633
MARUTI 7,244 7,483
7,621 7,859 7,997
NESTLEIND 14,335 14,517
14,693 14,875 15,051
NTPC 117 118
119 121 122
ONGC 136 139
141 145 147
POWERGRID 198 199
201 203 205
RELIANCE 1,425 1,446
1,463 1,484 1,501
SBIN 275 278
281 284 288
SUNPHARMA 409 415
420 427 432
TCS 2,092 2,144
2,173 2,224 2,253
TATAMOTORS 142 157
166 182 191
TATASTEEL 351 371
385 405 419
TECHM 710 732
748 770 786
TITAN 1,275 1,304
1,322 1,351 1,369
ULTRACEMCO 4,001 4,059
4,139 4,198 4,278
UPL 587 591
595 599 604
VEDANTA 142 146
149 153 156
WIPRO 251 253
254 257 258
YESBANK 50 54
57 61 64
ZEEL 232 234
238 240 244
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October 30, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]angelbroking.com
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