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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 30, 2019
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Sensex (
) / N
ifty
(1
1512
)
Last Friday market took a giant leap after FM’s announcement on
slashing corporate taxes. All of a sudden, the tide turned upwards
and before anyone could realise, the Nifty was well above
11200. Since it was predominantly a short squeezing move,
markets were not done with such sharp one day spurt. Expectedly,
we had a good bump up on Monday to kick start the week on a
strong note. Participants were so ecstatic; the Nifty went on to
almost kiss the 11700 mark in the initial euphoric move.
However, this seemed to be an overreaction and hence,
throughout the remaining part of the week, market consolidated
in a slender range to eventually conclude tad above 11500.
Practically speaking, Nifty soared 1000 points in merely two days
and one has to understand, it is very seldom to see such colossal
move in a quick succession. So, to bring the market sentiments
back to the equilibrium, we either had to see natural profit
booking or had to spend some time in a range. As of now,
market seemed to have opted for the second choice and hence,
we consolidated after Monday’s bump up. Now, the low hanging
fruit or the easy money is already gone at least for traders. We
are likely to witness such choppy moves now and hence, one
needs to be very selective while picking up a stock. Yes, the
directional bias remains positive as long as we are above the
11200 mark.
Meanwhile, any dip should be construed as a buying opportunity.
The immediate range can now be seen at 11400 11700 and
it’s advisable to stay light in this band.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
29877
)
Post a gap up opening on last Monday, the BankNifty traded with
high volatitliy for rest of the week and ended with weekly gains of
more than 3 percent. During the week, the recent gap area at
29776-29420 acted as a support as we again witnessed buying
interest from this zone. The Private sector index heavyeights have
witnessed good outperformence in the recent upmove and most
of them still continue to show strength on the charts. This indicates
that the near term trend continues to be positive and hence,
traders should look for buying opportunities within this space. Last
weeks low of 29470 followed by 29200 (38.2% retracement of
the recent upmove) are the immediate supports for the index. On
the flipside, the immediate resistance is seen in the range 30700
- 30800 which was tested twice during the week.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29470 Resistance 1 – 30700
Support 2 – 29200 Resistance 2 – 30800
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
However having said that, it’s a matter of time, we expect index
coming out of it very soon and more importantly in the upward
direction. In this scenario, the next levels to watch out for would
be around 11900 – 12000. Traders are advised to keep a tab of
all the above mentioned levels and should focus on individual
stocks that are likely to provide better trading opportunities. The
actual momentum will now trigger only above 11650 11700,
which will attract lot of participants who are still waiting on the
side lines.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11400 Resistance 1 – 11650
Support 2 – 11370 Resistance 2 – 11700
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
We began Monday’s session with an upside gap and
saw extension of last Friday’s move almost towards
11700 mark. The benchmark index then consolidated
in the remaining days to conclude 2% higher week on
week.
FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 213 cr. In index futures, they sold of worth
Rs. 259 cr with decent fall in open interest, indicating
long unwinding took place on Friday’s session.
We did see addition of fresh longs in the end of
September series and these positions have been rolled
too. FIIs added short positions for the major part of the
last series but preferred lightening up 60% of their
positions series on series. Such unwinding shall be
taken optimistically and must keep a close watch on
their positions in the coming series. Considering the
above data point, we expect continuation of recent
upmove and hence, would advise traders to trade with
a positive bias.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.01%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 9.00% as
market closed at 11512.40 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 67.10
points against a premium of 59.65 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
116.20 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.34 to 16.11.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.33 to 1.19.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are BHARTIARTL, UBL, TATAPOWER, IDEA and
MFSL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BERGEPAINT 4571600 25.56 441.45 1.20
STAR 2799600 22.27 304.15 -8.99
MFSL 3201600 16.86 430.85 3.88
INFRATEL 6284000 14.21 256.60 -0.66
PEL 5030414 13.95 1726.60 -7.55
APOLLOHOSP 1810000 11.32 1400.55 -1.99
JUSTDIAL 1923600 9.74 690.70 -0.94
NMDC 26928000 9.60 91.50 0.93
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SUNTV 4271000 -10.31 482.95 2.21
CHOLAFIN 3145000 -9.37 310.55 -0.05
ADANIPORTS 11127500 -5.64 408.60 -2.58
CIPLA 12295000 -5.12 439.40 -0.08
TATAGLOBAL 8024400 -4.99 281.95 0.67
VOLTAS 1733000 -4.88 682.40 0.21
MGL 1873800 -3.82 917.20 -1.31
GAIL 39962328 -3.60 134.15 -2.68
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.27 0.93
BANKNIFTY 0.87 0.80
RELIANCE 0.77 0.67
ICICIBANK 0.91 0.68
INFY 1.03 0.49
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
STAR 60.41
IBULHSGFIN 109.63
PEL 61.87
MFSL 36.12
MANAPPURAM 50.42
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11512.4
0
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for September
27
, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
3142.50 3402.06 (259.56) 147654 12341.97 (4.31)
INDEX
OPTIONS
138212.69 137610.15 602.54
551463 43959.82 19.30
STOCK
FUTURES
11935.23 12990.72 (1055.49) 1507656 91316.37 0.36
STOCK
OPTIONS
3897.90 3887.23 10.67
25639 1535.04 112.56
Total 157188.32
157890.16
(701.84) 2232412
149153.20
4.76
Turnover on September
27
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
328169 23238.81 -63.00
INDEX
OPTIONS
7837217 553796.55 -82.01
STOCK
FUTURES
820430 45283.12 -61.57
STOCK
OPTIONS
559513 32317.26 -61.62
TOTAL 95,45,329 654635.74 -80.42
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11500 254.95
53.70 46.30 11553.70
Sell 11600 201.25
Buy 11500 254.95
100.95 99.05 11600.95
Sell 11700 154.00
Buy 11600 201.25
47.25 52.75 11647.25
Sell 11700 154.00
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11500 174.95
35.90 64.10 11464.10
Sell 11400 139.05
Buy 11500 174.95
68.05 131.95 11431.95
Sell 11300 106.90
Buy 11400 139.05
32.15 67.85 11367.85
Sell 11300 106.90
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 397 403
412 417 426
ASIANPAINT 1,718 1,747
1,764 1,793 1,810
AXISBANK 685 693
700 708 716
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,908 2,933
2,961 2,986 3,014
BAJFINANCE 3,949 4,003
4,044 4,098 4,139
BAJAJFINSV 8,337 8,444
8,510 8,617 8,683
BPCL 456 463
472 479 489
BHARTIARTL 332 341
348 356 363
INFRATEL 249 253
256 260 263
BRITANNIA 2,940 2,977
3,044 3,081 3,147
CIPLA 430 435
440 445 451
COALINDIA 192 196
200 204 208
DRREDDY 2,680 2,706
2,746 2,771 2,811
EICHERMOT 17,208 17,500
17,842 18,134 18,477
GAIL 130 132
135 137 139
GRASIM 707 717
732 742 756
HCLTECH 1,023 1,032
1,043 1,052 1,062
HDFCBANK 1,229 1,237
1,245 1,253 1,261
HDFC 1,982 2,009
2,053 2,080 2,124
HEROMOTOCO 2,667 2,698
2,738 2,769 2,810
HINDALCO 186 188
192 194 197
HINDUNILVR 1,981 1,996
2,020 2,035 2,060
ICICIBANK 440 444
448 453 457
IOC 142 144
146 148 149
INDUSINDBK 1,425 1,453
1,499 1,527 1,573
INFY 771 777
786 791 800
ITC 246 249
254 257 262
JSW STEEL 227 230
233 236 239
KOTAKBANK 1,590 1,617
1,633 1,660 1,676
LT 1,446 1,459
1,475 1,489 1,505
M&M 539 547
557 566 576
MARUTI 6,628 6,701
6,808 6,881 6,988
NESTLEIND 13,448 13,595
13,746 13,893 14,045
NTPC 115 116
117 119 120
ONGC 127 129
133 135 138
POWERGRID 194 196
198 200 202
RELIANCE 1,272 1,290
1,303 1,321 1,334
SBIN 276 279
282 285 288
SUNPHARMA 393 397
405 409 417
TCS 2,030 2,043
2,064 2,077 2,098
TATAMOTORS 116 118
120 122 124
TATASTEEL 348 354
364 369 379
TECHM 692 698
708 715 725
TITAN 1,252 1,268
1,281 1,297 1,310
ULTRACEMCO 4,299 4,347
4,383 4,432 4,468
UPL 567 574
581 589 596
VEDANTA 150 154
160 163 169
WIPRO 234 235
237 238 240
YESBANK 46 47
50 52 55
ZEEL 260 267
278 285 296
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
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