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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 30, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (19969)
During the week gone by, the bank index marked a recent
low of 16116 on Tuesday and then along with the broader
markets triggered a strong bounce back to end the week tad
below the 20000 mark.
The said bounce back was on cards as the momentum
oscillators were in deep red and now with the RSIS
smoothened confirming a positive crossover in deep oversold
territory; we sense the bounce may continue in the near term
towards 20850 and 22000 mark. On the flip side, immediate
support is placed around 18780-18000 levels. The volatility is
likely to remain high and hence one should have a stock
specific approach with proper exit setup.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 18780 Resistance 1 – 20850
Support 2 – 18000 Resistance 2 – 22000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (
/ Nifty
(
8660
)
Last Friday’s decent recovery was followed by a huge gap down
on Monday as there was sudden spike seen across the globe as
well as in India in corona virus infected numbers. The sell off
along with global peers augmented to hit a fresh 3-year low at
7511.10. Things looked extremely scary at one point as so many
stocks were falling as if there is no tomorrow. Few all time
favorites like HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance etc. considered as a safe
haven stocks also had to succumb to this melt down.
Fortunately, the global markets saw sharp recovery thereafter
which resulted into a respectable rebound in our market as well.
Eventually, the Nifty ended the action packed week by paring
down almost all losses.
Barring Monday’s mayhem, our markets managed to clock gains
for four consecutive sessions, which was rare to see in last couple
of months. But practically speaking, all markets across the globe
were extremely oversold and hence they needed some reason to
rebound. Globally the relief move started after the
announcement of hefty stimulus packages from US Federal
Reserve. Looking at the governments and central banks’ efforts
worldwide, hopes were built for similar sort of measures from
our Finance ministry and RBI as well to support the economy.
Finally, the sell off arrested and we are now considerably off
Monday’s low. Technically speaking, the Nifty has managed to
close above ‘5-day EMA’ after so many days. In addition, the RSI-
Smoothened on daily chart has confirmed a classical positive
crossover from deeply oversold position. Purely looking at these
observations, a possibility of extending this relief move towards
9150 – 9350 cannot be ruled out.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
But as we all know, we are currently in a very abnormal phase and
hence, all conventional theories of market research can go for a
toss. So rather than blindly depending on these pointers, the real
path of action would be decided on how things pan out with
respect to the corona virus pandemic. As far as supports are
concerned, 8500 followed by 8000 would be seen as key
supports. Traders are advised not to take aggressive / leveraged
bets and should ideally keep booking profits on a regular basis.
For a time being, the strategy would be to take one step at a time
and keep focusing on quality names. The entire world is fighting
against this health crisis and we hope it disappears soon.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 8500 Resistance 1 – 9000
Support 2 – 8000 Resistance 2 – 9150
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 30, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
,0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
3/5 3/9 3/12 3/16 3/18 3/20 3/24 3/26
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
During the week, the indices continued the sell-off
on Monday and registered a low around the 7500
mark. However, we witnessed short covering move
in last couple of sessions before expiry due to which
Nifty rebounded sharply and ended the week at
8660.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 356 crores. In index futures, the activities
were muted as they sold 29 crores with fall in open
interest.
The rollover in Nifty is at 62.12% v/s 3-month average
of 68.69%, whereas in BankNifty it is at 55.19 percent
v/s 3-month average of 64.10%. This indicates that
much of the short positions formed have been covered
and has not been rolled to the April series. FII’s ‘Long
Short Ratio’ in the index futures segment is now at
29.63 percent and they are light on positions. India VIX
has cooled off a bit from the highs of 86 but it’s still
trading around 70 which indicates that volatility is
likely to continue. Until we see a significant cool-off in
the IV’s, the range for the index will continue to be
high and hence, traders are advised to properly
manage the risk and book profits on a regular basis.
Co
m
ment
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.65%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 18.24
% as market closed at 8660.25 levels.
The Nifty April future closed with a discount of 8.85
points against a premium of 35.8 points in last trading
session. The May series closed at a premium of 17.1
points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 71.53 to 70.38.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased
from 1.42 to 1.23.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, BERGERPAINT, CUMMINSIND,
ADANIENT and BHARATFORG.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
JINDALSTEL
5015000 113.40
89.70 0.56
KOTAKBANK
8122000 24.53
1366.55 -0.92
GAIL
23688294
21.54
70.10 -4.50
JUSTDIAL
1206800 18.24
279.70 -4.75
MFSL
1131000 17.73
407.90 -4.02
ASIANPAINT
5814000 14.73
1621.35 -0.17
CUMMINSIND
443700 13.33
362.50 -4.82
TVSMOTOR
2165400 12.01
299.45 -7.49
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
UJJIVAN
1557200 -32.99 167.20
1.12
BALKRISIND
604800 -9.24 848.95
3.23
MUTHOOTFIN
1927500 -8.80 623.85
2.46
MINDTREE
688800 -7.72 794.05
-5.61
EQUITAS
6458200 -7.70 43.35
3.96
DLF
27066600 -6.96 138.80
0.07
FEDERALBNK
35399000 -6.51 44.55
6.20
AMARAJABAT
841600 -6.16 452.10
2.48
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.23 0.75
BANKNIFTY 0.74 0.65
RELIANCE 0.82 0.73
ICICIBANK 0.61 0.69
INFY 0.86 0.99
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
MANAPPURAM
175.23
YESBANK
428.50
SRTRANSFIN
186.08
ONGC
137.96
RBLBANK
191.71
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 30, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (April Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
8660.25
FII Statistics for March 27, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
6388.06
6417.25
(29.19) 115099
6937.31
(5.26)
INDEX
OPTIONS
57022.16
56685.71
336.45
449598
28355.41
10.63
STOCK
FUTURES
13601.94
13119.62
482.32
1303887
60608.72
0.83
STOCK
OPTIONS
596.24
584.27
11.97
11883
553.47
56.83
Total 77608.40
76806.85
801.55
1880467
96454.91
2.83
Turnover on March 27, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 7,09,902 37691.09 -32.73
Index Options 59,05,766 3,39,300.58 -39.14
Stock Futures 8,54,402 38140.22 -37.27
Stock Options 2,75,795 13908.79 -22.07
Total 77,45,865 4,29,040.68 -70.34
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8600 713.95
52.05 47.95 8652.05
Sell 8700 661.90
Buy 8600 713.95
113.00 87.00 8713.00
Sell 8800 600.95
Buy 8700 661.90
60.95 39.05 8760.95
Sell 8800 600.95
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8600 664.05
33.05 66.95 8566.95
Sell 8500 631.00
Buy 8600 664.05
71.35 128.65 8528.65
Sell 8400 592.70
Buy 8500 631.00
38.30 61.70 8461.70
Sell 8400 592.70
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1000,000
1200,000
1400,000
1600,000
1800,000
8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000 9100 9200 9300
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
236
244
252
259
267
ASIANPAINT 1,491 1,548
1,607
1,663
1,722
AXISBANK
319
339
374
395
430
BAJAJ-AUTO 1,916 1,985
2,076
2,145
2,236
BAJFINANCE 2,154 2,348
2,694
2,888
3,234
BAJAJFINSV 4,090 4,490
5,075
5,475
6,060
BPCL
256
267
286
297
315
BHARTIARTL
416
433
454
470
491
INFRATEL
147
152
158
163
170
BRITANNIA 2,377 2,453
2,581
2,657
2,785
CIPLA
384
396
404
415
423
COALINDIA
122
127
130
135
138
DRREDDY 2,736 2,826
2,937
3,027
3,137
EICHERMOT 13,176
13,748
14,572
15,144
15,968
GAIL
65
67
71
73
77
GRASIM
420
441
467
488
514
HCLTECH
399
415
436
452
473
HDFCBANK
805
855
922
971
1,038
HDFC 1,632 1,693
1,771
1,832
1,911
HEROMOTOCO
1,521
1,591
1,711
1,781
1,900
HINDALCO
85
88
94
97
103
HINDUNILVR 2,029 2,085
2,176
2,232
2,323
ICICIBANK
308
324
342
358
375
IOC
74
75
78
79
82
INDUSINDBK
301
356
447
502
594
INFY
624
638
657
671
689
ITC
150
157
161
168
172
JSW STEEL
141
146
151
157
162
KOTAKBANK 1,332 1,366
1,408
1,441
1,483
LT
768
803
846
881
924
M&M
269
282
293
306
318
MARUTI 4,198 4,422
4,779
5,003
5,361
NESTLEIND 14,414
14,761
15,148
15,495
15,882
NTPC
78
81
83
85
87
ONGC
61
63
64
66
68
POWERGRID
151
156
161
165
171
RELIANCE 1,012 1,039
1,073
1,100
1,134
SHREECEM 15,957
16,812
17,691
18,545
19,424
SBIN
184
190
201
207
218
SUNPHARMA
322
330
341
350
361
TCS 1,709 1,767
1,808
1,866
1,908
TATAMOTORS
65
68
72
75
79
TATASTEEL
261
269
282
290
303
TECHM
473
488
514
529
554
TITAN
864
900
933
969
1,002
ULTRACEMCO 2,924 3,034
3,212
3,322
3,500
UPL
304
313
325
334
345
VEDANTA
59
62
65
67
71
WIPRO
177
180
185
188
193
ZEEL
120
124
131
135
143
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March 30, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalrese[email protected]
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: d[email protected].com
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