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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 30, 2020
Sensex (
41199
) / Nifty
2129
)
After two days of sharp decline, global markets seemed to have
stabilised a bit and hence, we too had a gap up opening
yesterday as indicated by the SGX Nifty early in the morning.
During the initial hour, Nifty extended its lead and then slipped
into a consolidation mode. Although, Nifty managed to hold its
positive posture throughout the day, the second half was
extremely volatile as we saw couple of wild swings on both sides.
Eventually, the penultimate day of the January series ended with
handsome gains over six tenths of a percent.
If we look at the hourly chart, the ‘Bullish Wolfe Wave’ is clearly
visible and on Tuesday Nifty precisely recovered from the
‘Potential Reversal Zone’ of 127% reciprocal retracement around
12040. Yesterday’s gap up opening and sustenance above
12100 has proved its significance; but index was clearly
struggling to stay beyond 12150. Going ahead, if Nifty manages
to traverse the stiff hurdle of 12150 12170, we may see the
momentum extending towards 12220 12260 levels. However,
today being the expiry day and also, we are inching closer to the
mega event, Union Budget, the volatility with some choppiness
cannot be ruled out.
Traders are advised to stay light and should ideally follow a stock
centric approach. Apart from this, all eyes would be on banking
index as it holds a key position in dictating the near term direction
for our market.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 12040 Resistance 1 – 12170
Support 2 – 12000 Resistance 2 – 12220
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
30877
)
Bank Nifty Index too started on a positive note and extended the
morning gains towards 31083. Subsequently, it failed to hold at
higher levels and slipped lower to erase some of the morning
gains to eventually end with minor gains of 0.38% at 30877.
On the daily chart, Index in the last few sessions has traded in a
range of 30600 – 31400 and the next momentum move can only
be seen on a breakout from this range. Traders are advised to
keep a tab on the above levels and trade in the direction of the
breakout. Till then one can continue with the stock-specific
approach which can provide outperforming opportunity ahead of
the key union budget.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30600 Resistance 1 – 31085
Support 2 – 30500 Resistance 2 – 31400
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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January 30, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
Views
Post last two sessions correction, we finally saw some
respite in yesterday’s session. We has a cheerful start
and saw follow-up buying in the initial hour of trade.
As the day progressed, we witnessed some swings but
later on Nifty managed to show strength and
concluded the session tad above 12100 mark with the
gains of 74 points.
FIIs continued their selling streak in the cash market
segment, they sold to the tune of Rs. 1014 crores. In
index futures, they bought of worth Rs. 440 crores with
rise in open interest, indicating addition of some longs
in yesterday’s recovery.
Recently we witnessed shorting in both the indices;
however, yesterday decent amount of covering was
seen in Nifty Futures. In case of BankNifty, it was a
blend of both short covering and fresh long formation.
We saw good amount of writing in 12050-12150 puts
along with unwinding in 12100-12400 call options
(except for some build-up in 12150 and 12250 strikes).
Rollover in Nifty and BankNifty stood at 45.35% &
39.62% respectively, which is certainly on the lower
side as trader’s are preferring being light ahead of the
upcoming Budget. At present, traders are advised
avoiding any aggressive bets and opting for stock
specific approach.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.29%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 1.45% as
market closed at 12129.50 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 12.20
points against a premium of 12.20 points in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
51.20 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 17.30 to 16.49.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.10 to 1.13.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are TORNTPOWER, MCDOWELL-N, DISHTV,
MANAPPURAM and NTPC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
RAMCOCEM 2377600 11.81 810.40 -4.96
YESBANK 267449600 10.07 41.20 -0.84
NIITTECH 1248375 9.18 1940.95 -2.54
BERGEPAINT 9750400 9.00 572.95 2.12
GODREJCP 4557600 8.68 740.90 0.01
INDUSINDBK 19111200 8.38 1258.25 0.13
PIDILITIND 3254000 8.11 1496.85 2.18
UJJIVAN 7582000 7.47 374.10 0.21
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
DISHTV 51613200 -25.03 14.25 -3.38
CASTROLIND 3407100 -20.86 135.60 2.11
JUSTDIAL 2293200 -20.60 596.40 0.92
TATAMTRDVR 21620000 -13.70 77.60 4.66
TORNTPHARM 512500 -12.02 1937.50 1.05
TVSMOTOR 5961600 -11.70 469.85 1.69
IGL 9509500 -10.81 511.60 -0.40
BHARATFORG 8632000 -10.05 505.00 1.03
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.13 0.81
BANKNIFTY 0.83 0.90
RELIANCE 0.41 0.57
ICICIBANK 0.44 0.48
INFY 0.76 0.62
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BAJFINANCE 31.91
RAMCOCEM 36.11
TATAMOTORS 55.02
EICHERMOT 37.13
ITC 21.96
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 30, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
12
129.50
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
January
29, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
7416.84 6976.53 440.31
241700 19800.48 1.89
INDEX
OPTIONS
303554.78 303980.27 (425.49) 857603 70215.39 3.47
STOCK
FUTURES
41079.37 40188.51 890.86
1613017 107734.19 1.27
STOCK
OPTIONS
3479.07 3457.22 21.85
68682 4584.48 (16.37)
Total 355530.06
354602.53
927.53
2781002
202334.54
1.46
Turnover on
January
29
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
411236 31973.44 10.50
INDEX
OPTIONS
20892412 1497121.37 13.56
STOCK
FUTURES
1900414 130396.36 2.51
STOCK
OPTIONS
1015420 76613.91 -16.06
TOTAL 2,42,19,482
1736105.08 10.88
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12100 46.85
37.15 62.85 12137.15
Sell 12200 9.70
Buy 12100 46.85
45.30 154.70 12145.30
Sell 12300 1.55
Buy 12200 9.70
8.15 91.85 12208.15
Sell 12300 1.55
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12000 25.30
20.50 79.50 11979.50
Sell 11900 4.80
Buy 12000 25.30
23.60 176.40 11976.40
Sell 11800 1.70
Buy 11900 4.80
3.10 96.90 11896.90
Sell 11800 1.70
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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January 30, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 368 375
382 389 396
ASIANPAINT 1,771 1,784
1,794 1,807 1,817
AXISBANK 726 731
738 743 750
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,045 3,068
3,084 3,107 3,123
BAJFINANCE 4,130 4,275
4,359 4,504 4,588
BAJAJFINSV 9,544 9,719
9,824 9,999 10,104
BPCL 471 475
481 485 491
BHARTIARTL 480 485
493 498 506
INFRATEL 235 240
243 249 252
BRITANNIA 3,161 3,188
3,217 3,243 3,272
CIPLA 456 459
463 466 470
COALINDIA 186 188
191 193 196
DRREDDY 3,047 3,098
3,150 3,200 3,252
EICHERMOT 19,373 19,783
20,509 20,919 21,645
GAIL 124 125
127 128 130
GRASIM 786 794
808 817 831
HCLTECH 598 604
608 613 617
HDFCBANK 1,214 1,225
1,233 1,244 1,253
HDFC 2,370 2,387
2,417 2,435 2,465
HEROMOTOCO 2,449 2,468
2,489 2,508 2,529
HINDALCO 195 196
198 200 202
HINDUNILVR 2,050 2,062
2,074 2,086 2,098
ICICIBANK 519 523
529 533 538
IOC 117 117
119 120 121
INDUSINDBK 1,236 1,247
1,262 1,273 1,288
INFY 780 785
789 794 797
ITC 229 233
235 239 242
JSW STEEL 255 258
261 264 268
KOTAKBANK 1,613 1,627
1,637 1,650 1,660
LT 1,341 1,354
1,364 1,376 1,387
M&M 568 573
577 582 585
MARUTI 6,893 6,951
7,034 7,093 7,175
NESTLEIND 15,276 15,571
15,736 16,031 16,196
NTPC 110 112
113 115 116
ONGC 116 117
117 118 119
POWERGRID 187 190
192 194 196
RELIANCE 1,449 1,464
1,479 1,495 1,510
SBIN 313 315
317 319 321
SUNPHARMA 445 447
452 455 459
TCS 2,127 2,141
2,164 2,178 2,201
TATAMOTORS 175 181
185 192 196
TATASTEEL 444 448
454 458 464
TECHM 788 796
802 810 815
TITAN 1,166 1,176
1,192 1,202 1,218
ULTRACEMCO 4,500 4,534
4,594 4,628 4,688
UPL 533 538
542 546 551
VEDANTA 140 141
143 144 147
WIPRO 242 244
246 248 250
YESBANK 40 41
42 42 43
ZEEL 269 272
274 277 280
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 30, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]angelbroking.com
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