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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 29, 2019
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Sensex (
39
) / Nifty
(1
1
)
A truncated one-hour 'Muhurat' trading session ended on Sunday
on a positive note with gains of 0.37% at 11627.
During the last week, the benchmark index did nothing as we
witnessed Nifty vacillating in merely 150 – 180 points to conclude
the week with marginal cuts. As per our recent ‘Time
Retracement’ analysis, Nifty has reversed exactly in the September
month and is now well above recent lows. But the million dollar
question remains the same, are we going to see sustained rally
from hereon or not? Honestly, this would probably be the
toughest question to answer. But, we are still hopeful as we can
see bulls trying to flex their muscles a bit and hence, expect some
good days to come for our market. On the daily chart, we can
see a breakout happening during last week from anInverse
Head and Shoulders’ pattern. Although the follow up move is
lacking, one should remain upbeat as long as recent swing low of
11090 is intact. Meanwhile, 11450 11350 can be seen as
immediate supports and on the higher side, we could see rally
extending towards 11850 – 11900 first or may be beyond 12000
once Nifty manages to sustain above 11700. The Banking index
has been a laggard of late, which needs to step up and we expect
it to happen soon.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
29
51
6
)
Bank Nifty too witnessed a positive session on Sunday and ended
with marginal gains at 29516.
In our earlier report, we had mentioned about the probability of
the previous breakout range of 28800-28900 becoming a
support on corrections. This was seen in Friday's session as the
index recovered after almost testing this support. On the weekly
chart, the index has formed a 'Doji' candlestick. However, looking
at the broader picture, we continue with our positive stance and
expect further upmoves in the near term. The immediate support
continues to be in the range of 28800-28900 whereas the
resistance is seen around 29700. Once Bank Nifty breaks this
barrier, we could see the index testing 30200 mark quite soon.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 28900 Resistance 1 – 29610
Support 2 – 28800 Resistance 2 – 29790
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Traders/ Investors are advised to keep following ‘Buy on
declines’ strategy and should focus on apt candidates which
are gearing up for decent moves going ahead. We hope for
the new SAMVAT to bring back lot of positivity in the market
and by next Diwali, markets should be at much elevated levels
with broad based rallies from hereon.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 11530 Resistance 1 – 11700
Support 2 – 11480 Resistance 2 – 11760
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Nifty Vs OI
Views
On Friday, we witnessed a smart recovery from the
support of 11500 and the extention of this rally was
also seen on the muhurat trading day to conclude the
session tad above 11600 mark.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 6.61 cr. In index futures, they sold worth
Rs. 2.74 crores with a rise in open interest, indicating
the formation of mixed positions.
It was a week of consolidation for our market, we
started off the week on a positive note and saw
upmove beyond 11700 mark. However, this move was
short lived as decent amount of profit booking was
witnessed from the higher levels and then consolidation
took place from next two sessions. On Friday, we saw
follow-up selling to drag index slightly below 11500
mark; but, Nifty recouped major portion of the intraday
losses to eventually conclude the week tad above
11550. We witnessed mixed positions in Nifty futures;
whereas, decent short covering took place in banking
index. Considering Friday’s recovery from the support
zone of 11500-11550, we expect extension of the
recent upmove towards 11700 and then further buying
shall bring index towards 11850.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.90%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased 15.94%
as market closed at 11627.15 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a discount of 2.15
points against a premium of 28.55 points in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
41.35 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.24 to 15.58.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.02 to 1.22.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are SHREECEM, UNIONBANK, TECHM,
TATAMOTORS and NMDC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CUMMINSIND 2307900 25.70 545.85 0.36
INFRATEL 15984000 23.89 212.25 -2.15
DISHTV 122178000 18.46 11.80 0.85
YESBANK 187576400 16.28 54.75 4.67
TATAMOTORS 69570000 14.14 147.70 16.78
ICICIPRULI 7689000 12.36 485.20 -0.01
MUTHOOTFIN 2698500 10.84 665.15 0.35
CASTROLIND 7622800 10.06 151.80 -0.65
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDEA 591836000 -11.73 4.20 1.20
MFSL 2407200 -10.21 412.60 1.50
HDFCBANK 29850000 -10.02 1237.70 0.47
SBIN 119970000 -6.78 281.80 -0.23
PEL 7073142 -6.68 1600.60 0.72
MINDTREE 1477800 -6.53 713.70 -0.67
IGL 3476000 -6.37 379.15 0.44
SIEMENS 1709950 -6.27 1623.70 0.04
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.22 0.85
BANKNIFTY 1.02 0.86
RELIANCE 0.67 0.46
ICICIBANK 1.29 0.80
INFY 0.44 0.39
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
INDIGO 65.34
TATAMOTORS 104.70
TATAMTRDVR 105.65
INFRATEL 66.87
STAR 59.91
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 29, 2019
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Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
11627.15
Lot
Size = 75
FII Statistics for
October
27, 2019
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
6.88 9.62 (2.74) 177868 14506.55 2.15
INDEX
OPTIONS
1309.11 1315.25 (6.14) 671789 54249.34 11.77
STOCK
FUTURES
160.05 123.56 36.49
1554070 93211.76 0.64
STOCK
OPTIONS
136.96 138.49 (1.53) 114508 6562.43 (2.68)
Total 1613.00
1586.92
26.08
2518235
168530.08
3.33
Turnover on
October
27
, 2019
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
47879 3469.61 -88.46
INDEX
OPTIONS
1399485 97356.03 -96.42
STOCK
FUTURES
163672 8791.03 -86.17
STOCK
OPTIONS
190897 10526.51 -84.86
TOTAL 18,01,933 120143.18 -95.83
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11600 77.10
44.45 55.55 11644.45
Sell 11700 32.65
Buy 11600 77.10
65.75 134.25 11665.75
Sell 11800 11.35
Buy 11700 32.65
21.30 78.70 11721.30
Sell 11800 11.35
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11600 53.00
30.50 69.50 11569.50
Sell 11500 22.50
Buy 11600 53.00
43.65 156.35 11556.35
Sell 11400 9.35
Buy 11500 22.50
13.15 86.85 11486.85
Sell 11400 9.35
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 397 398
400 402 404
ASIANPAINT 1,777 1,785
1,796 1,804 1,816
AXISBANK 705 707
711 714 718
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,112 3,128
3,151 3,166 3,189
BAJFINANCE 3,923 3,951
3,983 4,011 4,043
BAJAJFINSV 7,883 7,942
8,014 8,073 8,145
BPCL 518 522
526 530 534
BHARTIARTL 362 367
371 377 381
INFRATEL 206 209
213 216 220
BRITANNIA 3,199 3,229
3,267 3,297 3,335
CIPLA 457 459
461 463 466
COALINDIA 197 200
204 207 212
DRREDDY 2,767 2,776
2,785 2,794 2,803
EICHERMOT 20,782 21,053
21,371 21,641 21,959
GAIL 122 123
123 124 125
GRASIM 683 693
704 715 726
HCLTECH 1,117 1,124
1,132 1,138 1,146
HDFCBANK 1,231 1,235
1,238 1,241 1,245
HDFC 2,084 2,095
2,107 2,118 2,131
HEROMOTOCO 2,628 2,649
2,670 2,691 2,712
HINDALCO 181 181
182 183 184
HINDUNILVR 2,127 2,134
2,141 2,147 2,154
ICICIBANK 461 465
469 474 478
IOC 141 142
143 143 144
INDUSINDBK 1,268 1,272
1,278 1,283 1,289
INFY 642 645
649 652 656
ITC 249 250
250 251 252
JSW STEEL 216 218
220 221 223
KOTAKBANK 1,584 1,588
1,595 1,599 1,606
LT 1,424 1,429
1,434 1,439 1,444
M&M 574 583
589 598 604
MARUTI 7,330 7,376
7,438 7,484 7,546
NESTLEIND 14,676 14,745
14,847 14,916 15,018
NTPC 118 119
119 119 119
ONGC 138 139
140 141 142
POWERGRID 199 201
203 204 206
RELIANCE 1,421 1,428
1,436 1,443 1,451
SBIN 278 280
282 284 287
SUNPHARMA 414 416
418 420 422
TCS 2,098 2,107
2,118 2,127 2,138
TATAMOTORS 135 141
146 152 157
TATASTEEL 362 364
365 366 367
TECHM 709 718
728 737 746
TITAN 1,300 1,310
1,326 1,336 1,352
ULTRACEMCO 4,109 4,150
4,212 4,253 4,315
UPL 589 593
596 599 602
VEDANTA 143 144
144 145 146
WIPRO 252 253
254 255 256
YESBANK 53 54
55 56 57
ZEEL 233 236
240 242 246
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October 29, 2019
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*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
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