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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 29, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
21666
)
Following the strong bounce back on Friday, the bank index lead
from the front and ended with gains of 3.26% at 21665.50.
For the last few weeks, the bank nifty has been the major culprit
for dragging the broader market lower however for the last two
sessions a change of role has been seen by this high beta tradable
index. We sense this upmove as a dead cat bounce after the steep
fall seen from the recent high of 25232 levels. Going ahead, we
may see some further extension of this bounce however the trend
remains down and hence this upmove is likely to fizzle out at
higher levels. In such a scenario, stiff resistance is seen around
21850 - 22000 levels. On the flip side, 21450 - 21300 is seen as
immediate support. Traders are henced advised to keep positions
light and use the further bounce to exit long positions.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21450 Resistance 1 – 21850
Support 2 – 21300 Resistance 2 – 22000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
37982)
/ Nifty
(
11228
)
A spectacular recovery on Friday was followed by a gap up opening
in our market to kickstart the new trading week. This optimism was
mainly on the back of cheerful mood across the globe, which kept
adding throughout the session. Eventually, the day ended with more
than one and half a percent gains to reclaim the 11200 mark on a
closing basis.
The way market rebounded sharply on Friday, further bounce back
was evident but honestly speaking, it has exceeded our expectations
by a fair margin. Such moves at times can be a bit tricky and one can
easily get carried away by the intraday momentum. Since we were
caught in two minds, we thought of sticking to our pre-market
analysis and gave more weightage to last week’s directional move,
which was downwards. Hence, although we tend to miss out some
moves in this process, we avoided participating in this extended
recovery as we were seeing a resistance area around 11150-11250.
Now, looking at yesterday’s move, we need to shift this zone slightly
higher at 11250-11350 and hence, one should ideally lighten up
longs here. Technically speaking, we will still construe this as a pull
back towards the breakdown point of the ‘Triangle’ pattern,
confirmed last week. Till the time, we do not sustain above 11350-
11400, it’s advisable not to get carried away in this rally as we can
still see some selling pressure at higher levels. For the coming
session, the support is visible at 11175-11100 levels.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Yesterday’s rally once again was mainly led by the banking space,
which has also hastened towards the key resistance zone. Apart from
this, the broader market had seen some encouraging moves and
would be interesting to see how it behaves in the forthcoming
session.
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 11175 Resistance 1 – 11350
Support 2 – 11100 Resistance2 – 11400
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 29, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
10400
10600
10800
11000
11200
11400
11600
11800
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9/16 9/17 9/18 9/21 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
Vie
w
s
Nifty started the week on a positive note and
rallied higher throughout the day to end well above the
11200 mark.
FIIs sold worth Rs. 27 crores in cash market segment
whereas in index future segment the bought worth Rs.
709 crores with increase in open interest indicating long
positions created yesterday.
The index witnessed long formation as the open interest
increased by about 10 percent. The Banking index too
rallied higher but no relevant change was seen in open
interest ,indicating a combination of short covering and
long formation there. FII's net activity was muted in the
cash segment but they added some longs in the index
futures segment. In options segment, 11300 and 11500
call options added open interest while 11200-11000 put
options too added fresh addition. Yesterday's data is
positive for the index, however, the index has already
seen a sharp move in the last couple of sessions and is
near to the immediate resistance which is around
11300. Thus, traders are advised to trade with a stock
specific approach and avoid aggressive positions.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 9.86%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 0.04%
as market closed at 11227.55 levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 10.45
point against a discount of 8.05 point in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of 28.7
point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 20.68 to 19.57.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.31
to 1.37.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are TATACONSUM,NMDC, MFSL, BATAINDIA
AND UBL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MFSL 2174900 55.05 619.65 4.47
BALKRISIND 1940800 33.96 1447.70 6.87
ESCORTS 2572900 24.88 1295.60 7.76
BAJAJ-AUTO 1648000 20.31 2966.30 0.39
PVR 1642245 14.96 1233.65 12.32
IGL 5886375 12.72 403.85 0.52
TVSMOTOR 4800600 12.02 471.45 5.64
CONCOR 6059751 9.37 380.30 1.31
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
COFORGE 555375 -13.59 2383.95 3.23
AMARAJABAT 911000 -9.44 746.90 2.69
MGL 1342800 -6.56 849.70 3.12
EXIDEIND 7268400 -6.01 164.15 1.82
PAGEIND 111060 -5.66 20617.75 4.76
MUTHOOTFIN 3925500 -5.15 1089.80 0.60
COLPAL 2184000 -4.82 1440.90 1.87
RBLBANK 17378400 -4.45 173.65 5.51
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.37 0.85
BANKNIFTY 1.03 0.78
RELIANCE 0.58 0.36
ICICIBANK 0.78 0.54
INFY 0.52 0.42
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
PVR 66.11
APOLLOTYRE 53.90
POWERGRID 37.96
BALKRISIND 56.10
ESCORTS 64.39
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 29, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11227.55
FII Statistics for September 28, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
4356.93
3647.91
709.02
97217
7257.30
10.75
INDEX
OPTIONS
159801.46
159376.42
425.04
772259
58950.54
4.21
STOCK
FUTURES
14062.87
13285.52
777.35
1105336
75307.37
(1.06)
STOCK
OPTIONS
3508.02
3428.81
79.21
49699
3570.29
11.68
Total 181729.28
179738.66
1990.62
2024511
145085.50
1.71
Turnover on September 28, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 4,80,792 30788.74 -16.64
Index Options
1,87,69,105 12,35,982.68 9.93
Stock Futures 7,19,902 53403.12 -10.69
Stock Options
7,94,348 60116.59 -6.62
Total 2,07,64,147 13,80,291.13 7.38
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11200 255.95
55.40 44.60 11255.40
Sell 11300 200.55
Buy 11200 255.95
103.15 96.85 11303.15
Sell 11400 152.80
Buy 11300 200.55
47.75 52.25 11347.75
Sell 11400 152.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11200 217.45
37.10 62.90 11162.90
Sell 11100 180.35
Buy 11200 217.45
68.65 131.35 11131.35
Sell 11000 148.80
Buy 11100 180.35
31.55 68.45 11068.45
Sell 11000 148.80
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000 11100 11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 29, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
321
331
337
346
352
ASIANPAINT 1,917 1,931
1,945
1,959
1,973
AXISBANK
410
425
433
447
455
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,911 2,939
2,981
3,008
3,050
BAJFINANCE 3,095 3,215
3,283
3,403
3,470
BAJAJFINSV 5,729 5,857
5,949
6,077
6,169
BPCL
369
377
384
392
399
BHARTIARTL
428
436
442
450
455
BRITANNIA 3,646 3,692
3,735
3,781
3,824
CIPLA
747
761
769
783
792
COALINDIA
116
118
120
122
123
DIVISLAB 2,975 3,036
3,083
3,144
3,191
DRREDDY 5,031 5,080
5,140
5,190
5,249
EICHERMOT 2,092 2,136
2,173
2,217
2,254
GAIL
84
86
88
90
91
GRASIM
708
721
728
742
749
HCLTECH
810
822
834
846
858
HDFCBANK 1,036 1,045
1,052
1,061
1,068
HDFCLIFE
574
578
581
584
587
HDFC 1,643 1,662
1,677
1,697
1,712
HEROMOTOCO 2,956 3,022
3,059
3,126
3,162
HINDALCO
160
164
166
170
173
HINDUNILVR 2,040 2,051
2,072
2,084
2,104
ICICIBANK
344
353
359
368
374
IOC
73
74
76
77
78
INDUSINDBK
498
526
545
574
592
INFY
991
1,001
1,008
1,018
1,026
ITC
169
171
173
175
177
JSW STEEL
265
271
275
281
285
KOTAKBANK 1,242 1,260
1,272
1,291
1,302
LT
880
891
904
916
929
M&M
584
600
609
624
634
MARUTI 6,477 6,590
6,655
6,768
6,833
NESTLEIND 15,486
15,603
15,737
15,854
15,987
NTPC
84
86
87
89
90
ONGC
67
70
72
74
76
POWERGRID
158
163
166
171
174
RELIANCE 2,189 2,203
2,220
2,234
2,251
SBILIFE
794
803
810
820
826
SHREECEM 18,848
19,190
19,423
19,765
19,998
SBIN
181
184
186
189
191
SUNPHARMA
480
495
504
519
527
TCS 2,334 2,380
2,412
2,458
2,490
TATAMOTORS
125
129
132
136
138
TATASTEEL
351
356
361
365
370
TECHM
766
773
779
785
791
TITAN 1,095 1,117
1,130
1,152
1,166
ULTRACEMCO 3,834 3,878
3,914
3,958
3,994
UPL
499
505
511
516
523
WIPRO
305
308
313
316
320
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Technical & Derivatives Report
September 29, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: te[email protected]lbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com