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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 29, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (19170)
Following the positive momentum from the previous session, Bank
Nifty witnessed a positive start and ended the F&O expiry session
with gains of 2.45% at 19170.
As mentioned above, during the start of the week, we mentioned
a positive divergence on the hourly chart of the bank nifty and
yesterday we mentioned a positive crossover in the RSIS oscillator
on the daily chart. The bank nifty index which in the last few weeks
was underperforming has now outperformed in this week and now
prices have now closed above 20SMA which indicates that the
short term trend has turned positive. We maintain our positive bias
and we expect the current bounce to extend towards 20000 and
20530 levels. On the flip side, support is placed around 18800
18600 levels. Traders are advised to have a stock specific
approach within the sector which are likely to give outperforming
opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 18800 Resistance 1 – 19600
Support 2 – 18600 Resistance 2 – 20000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (32201) / Nifty (9490)
Last couple of days have been excellent for our markets, in fact
best trading sessions since April 30. Prior to Wednesday’s session,
we were significantly underperforming our global peers. But
finally our markets showed strength and have witnessed a decent
catch up move from the key support of 9000. Wednesday’s
massive rally was followed by yet another smart day of trade to
conclude the May contract at the highest point of the series (on a
closing basis).
At the start of the week, we carried our bullish inclination after
observing a positive divergence in RSI Smoothened in the hourly
chart of BankNifty on Friday. This anticipation played out well and
with weakest link (banking space) taking the charge, the Nifty got
elevated towards 9500 before anyone could realise. Nifty has now
reached to our immediate target of 9450 - 9500, but the way
charts are shaped up, we expect the Nifty to enter a downside gap
area of 9532-9731 created on May 04, 2020. On the flipside, 9380
followed by 9250 would now be seen as a sacrosanct support.
.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
As we have just alluded, last two day’s rally is clearly propelled by
the banking space and as we all know, whenever the banking
conglomerates starts participating in any rally, it is considered to
be a robust one. Hence, traders should look to use declines to go
long and ideally the stock centric approach would fetch better
trading opportunities as well as the higher potential gains.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 9380 Resistance 1 – 9532
Support 2 – 9250 Resistance 2 – 9731
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 29, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
8400
8600
8800
9000
9200
9400
9600
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
5/8 5/12 5/14 5/18 5/20 5/22 5/27
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
ie
w
s
May series started with a gap down opening in Nifty
and the index corrected gradually throughout the series
to almost test the 8800 mark. Nifty consolidated in last
couple of weeks and pulled back sharply in last two
sessions to end the series around 9500, with a loss of
3.75 percent compared to last expiry.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 2354 crores. In index futures, they sold worth
354 crores on the F&O expiry session.
In last couple of sessions, the underperforming Banking
space witnessed short covering which resulted in a
sharp upmove in the BankNifty index. Stocks from the
F&O space witnessed good momentum due to a
combination of short covering and fresh long
formations. The rollover in Nifty is at 75.67% while in
Bank Nifty it is at 81.13%. FII’s have squared off much of
their index futures short positions and their ‘Long Short
Ratio’ at the start of new series is at 63%. Looking at the
data, we are of the opinion that the index is likely to
witness buying interest on declines and hence traders
should use a buy on dip strategy and trade with a
positive bias
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 21.35%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 20.18%
as market closed at 9490.10 levels.
The Nifty June future closed with a discount of 62.15
point against a discount of 14.5 point in last trading
session. The July series closed at a discount of 68.45
points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 31.27 to 30.01
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.56 to 1.55.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, NCC, NATIONALUM, GODREJPROP, and
CANBK.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
TATAMOTORS 78183600 17.15 87.00 2.72
PNB 54386500 8.58 26.75 -3.81
CENTURYTEX 2311400 6.73 284.55 0.89
LUPIN 9762350 5.47 881.15 -1.28
BALKRISIND 1250400 5.39 1105.65 2.22
CONCOR 5201664 5.08 351.65 0.49
DLF 27106200 3.44 144.05 3.92
BHARATFORG 5651800 3.32 306.95 5.85
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HINDPETRO 11412300 -46.29 185.85 -0.03
IDEA 302666000 -45.47 5.80 4.39
UPL 10323700 -41.94 391.10 0.52
GODREJPROP 239200 -36.55 653.90 2.84
PAGEIND 108605 -31.56 18406.85 0.06
RBLBANK 15461700 -30.13 116.65 -1.52
CIPLA 10301750 -28.69 628.35 -0.55
IGL 3928375 -23.18 470.75 2.99
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.55 0.92
BANKNIFTY 1.29 0.84
RELIANCE 0.72 0.48
ICICIBANK 0.73 0.61
INFY 0.85 0.82
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
PVR 106.95
IBULHSGFIN 142.42
EQUITAS 133.44
JINDALSTEL 116.47
INDUSINDBK 128.19
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 29, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (June Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
9490.10
FII Statistics for May 28, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
7624.87
7978.45
(353.58) 121119
7627.47
(26.88)
INDEX
OPTIONS
439983.60
437562.14
2421.46
452447
29687.42
(31.78)
STOCK
FUTURES
28704.82
26581.87
2122.95
1524658
75895.33
(4.66)
STOCK
OPTIONS
1584.09
1639.82
(55.73) 19089
1062.53
(60.28)
Total 477897.38
473762.28
4135.10
2117313
114272.75
(14.49)
Turnover on May 28, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 9,72,081 49097.52 -2.10
Index Options 5,85,57,001
27,39,897.38 80.55
Stock Futures 19,07,256 94001.85 -12.38
Stock Options 9,00,395 46336.72 -11.39
Total 6,23,36,733
29,29,333.47 69.59
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 9500 236.65
48.70 51.30 9548.70
Sell 9600 187.95
Buy 9500 236.65
90.10 109.90 9590.10
Sell 9700 146.55
Buy 9600 187.95
41.40 58.60 9641.40
Sell 9700 146.55
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 9500 310.55
45.50 54.50 9454.50
Sell 9400 265.05
Buy 9500 310.55
86.65 113.35 9413.35
Sell 9300 223.90
Buy 9400 265.05
41.15 58.85 9358.85
Sell 9300 223.90
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
9000 9100 9200 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 29, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
324
328
331
335
338
ASIANPAINT 1,597 1,620
1,639
1,662
1,680
AXISBANK
375
383
395
403
416
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,387 2,494
2,557
2,663
2,726
BAJFINANCE 1,897 1,922
1,953
1,978
2,009
BAJAJFINSV 4,161 4,224
4,274
4,337
4,387
BPCL
313
320
327
334
341
BHARTIARTL
550
557
562
569
574
INFRATEL
210
217
221
228
232
BRITANNIA 3,118 3,221
3,292
3,395
3,466
CIPLA
619
624
631
635
642
COALINDIA
128
131
133
136
138
DRREDDY 3,812 3,850
3,880
3,918
3,949
EICHERMOT 14,523
15,380
15,905
16,762
17,287
GAIL
86
88
89
91
93
GRASIM
547
562
572
586
596
HCLTECH
514
528
537
551
560
HDFCBANK
900
923
936
959
972
HDFC 1,548 1,586
1,615
1,653
1,682
HEROMOTOCO
2,098
2,198
2,266
2,367
2,435
HINDALCO
131
135
137
141
143
HINDUNILVR 1,980 1,995
2,005
2,020
2,030
ICICIBANK
317
322
326
331
335
IOC
76
77
78
79
80
INDUSINDBK
354
370
388
405
422
INFY
682
695
702
715
722
ITC
187
189
191
193
195
JSW STEEL
180
182
185
188
191
KOTAKBANK 1,186 1,208
1,231
1,253
1,277
LT
834
870
891
927
948
M&M
416
428
436
448
456
MARUTI 5,119 5,294
5,394
5,569
5,669
NESTLEIND 16,550
16,769
16,900
17,119
17,250
NTPC
94
95
96
97
98
ONGC
76
77
79
81
83
POWERGRID
155
156
157
158
160
RELIANCE 1,436 1,454
1,467
1,485
1,498
SHREECEM 19,842
20,325
20,744
21,228
21,647
SBIN
153
156
159
162
165
SUNPHARMA
438
449
455
466
472
TCS 1,954 1,979
1,997
2,022
2,039
TATAMOTORS
83
85
87
89
90
TATASTEEL
285
290
295
300
304
TECHM
512
521
526
535
541
TITAN
864
882
893
911
922
ULTRACEMCO 3,678 3,744
3,782
3,847
3,886
UPL
382
387
393
397
403
VEDANTA
87
88
90
91
93
WIPRO
192
196
200
203
207
ZEEL
152
166
178
192
203
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Technical & Derivatives Report
May 29, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ru[email protected]gelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com