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January 29, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
30358)
On the expiry day, the bank index started with a gap down opening
and amidst stock-specific momentum remained within a range for
the major part of the sessions. However, in the last hour, the F&O
expiry role came into play and we witnessed a strong upsurge to end
around the high point of the day with gains of 0.24% at 30358. After
four sessions of sharp selloff and underperformance, we finally saw
some relief and outperformance by the banking space. In our
yesterday's outlook, we had mentioned that the hourly oscillators are
in deep oversold and prices are trading around its trendline support.
For the major part of the session, the bank index traded below this
trendline however on closing it manage to hold the same. Even
though some private banks showed some strong outperformance we
sense we are still not completely out of the woods hence one should
continue a stock-specific approach however should avoid aggressive
bets. As far as levels are concerned, immediate support is placed
around 29650 - 29500 whereas resistance is seen around 30730 -
31000 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29650 Resistance 1 – 30730
Support 2 – 29500 Resistance 2 – 31000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
46874)
/ Nifty
(
13818
)
We had a weak session on Wednesday to snap all monthly gains and
eventually closed below 14000 for the first time in the new year. Since
last 3-4 sessions, our markets looked nervous but it wasn’t due to the
global markets. Previous night for the first time, US and European
markets had a meaningful correction and hence, we reacted this
morning by a decent gap down opening around 13800. During the
session, the losses extended to sneak towards 13700; but fortunately
due to some late recovery in the banking space, the Nifty managed to
recover some ground to conclude the January series on a negative
note.
In last five trading sessions, Nifty has lost more than 1000 points which
in percentage terms can be seen as 7% cut. Undoubtedly, it’s a
meaningful correction in such a short span; but if we compare it with
the gigantic relentless rally in last three months, it appears very
miniscule, in fact was much needed also. We advocated caution
consistently in last 300-400 points rally and looking at the 3-points
‘Negative Divergence’ at new high, hinted towards the possible
correction as well. The strategy seemed to have worked well now; but if
we look at the near term chart structure, it looks a bit distorted, which
does not bode well for the short term optimist traders. Now we are just
one session away from the mega event, Union Budget and the way we
are placed, things have become tricky for both counterparties (Bulls
and Bears). Purely looking at the chart, the trend is likely to remain
downwards as long as Nifty stays below 14200 – 14300. Any short
term bounce towards these levels is likely to get sold into. On the other
side, there is a cluster of supports around 13700 13500. For a time
being, we expect the index to gyrate within this range with lot of stock
specific moves
.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
At this juncture, we do not advice aggressive bets on the short side,
rather we are likely to see stock specific trades on both sides. Traders
should look to identify such potential themes and position accordingly
by following strict stop losses. The way banking had a smart rebound
in the last hour, all eyes would be on this space, which would provide
some direction to Nifty. For the coming session, 13900 followed by
14000 is to be seen as immediate hurdles; whereas on the downside,
13750 13700 should provide some support. The coming session is
likely be less volatile and we do not expect a bigger move on either
sides one day ahead of the Budget.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 13750 Resistance 1 – 13900
Support 2 – 13700 Resistance2 – 14000
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
13400
13600
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1/1 1/5 1/7 1/11 1/13 1/15 1/19 1/21 1/25 1/28
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post last three series strong closing, we concluded the
January series with a cut of more than a percent.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 3712 crore. In index future segment, they sold worth
Rs. 1389 crore with significant fall in open interest on
account of expiry.
During the series, we saw decent profit booking along with
few shorts in Nifty futures; whereas, in case of banking
index meaningful shorts were added throughout the
series. Rollovers in Nifty stood at 77%, which is inline to
the three month averages. BanknIfty rollover may appear
to be low if compared to the averages but if we consider
open interest, it hints decent amount of shorts have been
rolled-over to Feburary series. As far as FIIs activities are
concerned, they preferred rolling over their shorts formed
during last series. In stock futures segment, they
lighterned up both long and short trades. At current
juncture, 14000 call and 13500 puts are attracting traders
attention. Considering the upcoming event of Union
Budget,it is advisable to stay light in market.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 25.04%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by
13.54% as market closed at 13817.55 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 26.8
point against a premium of 15.05 point in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of 54.55
point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 24.39 to 24.29.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from
0.89 to 1.34.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, SRTRANSFIN, PNB, APOLLOTYRE and
PEL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
BANKBARODA 75570300 12.58 66.75 -9.70
M&MFIN 15352000 10.48 164.20 -4.81
MARUTI 2333900 5.88 7588.40 -3.52
AMBUJACEM 18939000 5.09 248.00 -1.75
CANBK 58309200 4.46 127.95 -2.24
HINDUNILVR 5856900 3.92 2300.50 -3.74
HDFCBANK 28976750 3.57 1371.40 -3.06
HINDALCO 24527200 2.72 229.05 -0.97
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SAIL 43586000 -65.14 56.95 -1.21
POWERGRID 12412000 -36.03 187.30 -2.19
BALKRISIND 1164800 -30.17 1664.25 -0.02
BAJFINANCE 4009250 -24.50 4810.35 -0.70
MGL 1617600 -24.12 1055.75 1.02
ASIANPAINT 5280600 -24.02 2441.75 0.18
GODREJCP 2578000 -23.46 777.80 -0.01
UBL 1510600 -23.09 1283.75 -2.61
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.34 0.91
BANKNIFTY 0.80 0.65
RELIANCE 0.51 0.47
ICICIBANK 0.53 0.43
INFY 0.47 0.53
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
MCDOWELL-N 43.08
BANKBARODA 61.68
HAVELLS 43.30
HINDUNILVR 34.25
AXISBANK 64.02
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
13817.55
FII Statistics for January 28, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
10498.45 11887.89 (1389.44) 124302 11941.57 (30.96)
INDEX
OPTIONS
905394.13 900648.50 4745.63
495236 48784.33 (47.05)
STOCK
FUTURES
31247.99 30328.12 919.87
1133538 89741.00 (5.38)
STOCK
OPTIONS
6384.17 5569.18 814.99
51565 3892.56 (66.20)
Total 953524.74
948433.69
5091.05
1804641
154359.46
(26.82)
Turnover on January 28, 2020
Instrume
nt
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 7,42,683 66294.76 15.52
Index Options 8,77,94,742
73,92,006.13 73.28
Stock Futures 18,09,970 1,44,838.88 -3.17
Stock Options 14,37,281 1,20,049.36 -19.14
Total 9,17,84,676
77,23,189.13 67.12
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 13800 391.00
52.00 48.00 13852.00
Sell 13900 339.00
Buy 13800 391.00
101.15 98.85 13901.15
Sell 14000 289.85
Buy 13900 339.00
49.15 50.85 13949.15
Sell 14000 289.85
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 13800 347.15
45.95 54.05 13754.05
Sell 13700 301.20
Buy 13800 347.15
85.85 114.15 13714.15
Sell 13600 261.30
Buy 13700 301.20
39.90 60.10 13660.10
Sell 13600 261.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
13400 13500 13600 13700 13800 13900 14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
497
508
518
529
539
ASIANPAINT 2,379 2,411
2,432
2,463
2,485
AXISBANK
595
633
654
692
713
BAJAJ-AUTO 4,021 4,078
4,134
4,192
4,248
BAJFINANCE 4,628 4,719
4,814
4,905
5,000
BAJAJFINSV 8,598 8,777
8,996
9,175
9,394
BPCL
370
377
383
391
397
BHARTIARTL
557
564
570
577
583
BRITANNIA 3,514 3,559
3,604
3,649
3,695
CIPLA
816
829
839
852
862
COALINDIA
127
127
129
130
131
DIVISLAB 3,359 3,394
3,445
3,481
3,532
DRREDDY 4,724 4,798
4,851
4,925
4,978
EICHERMOT 2,697 2,748
2,789
2,840
2,881
GAIL
124
126
128
130
132
GRASIM 1,023 1,045
1,061
1,083
1,098
HCLTECH
917
925
939
948
961
HDFCBANK 1,312 1,342
1,372
1,401
1,431
HDFCLIFE
662
667
675
680
688
HDFC 2,366 2,396
2,425
2,455
2,484
HEROMOTOCO 3,257 3,327
3,396
3,466
3,535
HINDALCO
221
225
229
233
236
HINDUNILVR 2,212 2,256
2,334
2,378
2,456
ICICIBANK
506
517
523
535
541
IOC
89
91
92
94
95
INDUSINDBK
767
785
807
825
847
INFY 1,258 1,267
1,282
1,291
1,306
ITC
203
205
208
210
213
JSW STEEL
364
370
376
382
387
KOTAKBANK 1,666 1,694
1,729
1,758
1,793
LT 1,325 1,335
1,350
1,360
1,375
M&M
744
755
766
777
788
MARUTI 7,289 7,439
7,712
7,861
8,134
NESTLEIND 17,053
17,220
17,370
17,537
17,687
NTPC
89
90
92
93
94
ONGC
88
89
90
92
93
POWERGRID
183
185
188
190
193
RELIANCE 1,837 1,857
1,890
1,910
1,943
SBILIFE
860
866
875
882
891
SHREECEM 22,470
22,788
22,989
23,307
23,508
SBIN
265
273
278
287
292
SUNPHARMA
539
552
563
576
587
TCS 3,127 3,162
3,218
3,253
3,310
TATAMOTORS
252
259
266
274
281
TATASTEEL
604
614
622
632
640
TECHM
954
968
979
993
1,004
TITAN 1,401 1,426
1,440
1,464
1,479
ULTRACEMCO 5,288 5,366
5,418
5,496
5,548
UPL
551
558
564
572
578
WIPRO
415
423
436
445
457
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalre[email protected]king.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: deri[email protected]king.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com