Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2018
Sensex (36050) / Nifty (11070)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
In the week gone by, we saw Nifty ascending to a great extent in
first couple of trading sessions and in this process, has managed
to clock record highs well above the 11000 mark. However,
during the latter half, the index chose to consolidate a bit after a
sharp run as we were heading for an extended weekend just
ahead of the Union Budget. Eventually, the Nifty successfully
managed to defend its important milestone of 11000 on a weekly
basis.
Of late, we saw tremendous optimism in our market and hence,
the index kept marching higher to conquer many important
junctions. However, since last couple of days, we can see some
respite in the market as the index hastened towards its crucial
near term point of11100 before anyone could realize it. We have
been stating the importance of this level as it coincides with the
161% price extension of the rally seen during 2008 - 10.
Although, recently, there has been not much respect to any level
but since 161% is considered as an important ratio as per the
‘Fibonacci series’ and mainly because the major event is around
the corner now, it’s important to draw attention to this point.
Going forward, we need to see how market behaves in next three
trading sessions; because in last couple of days, we have already
witnessed a good amount of profit booking in number of
individual stocks. As far as trading strategy for next few days is
concerned, we reiterate that traders should look to take some
money off the table ahead of the major event. Last year, trading
before the budget was quite easy as compared to the current one;
but now, low hanging fruit is already gone and hence, it would
be a daunting task finding good trade set ups. One can keep
focusing on stock specific moves by following a proper exit
strategy.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 11000
Resistance 1 - 11100
Support 2 - 10994
Resistance 2 - 11125
Nifty Bank Outlook - (27446)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
On Thursday, Bank Nifty Index opened marginally higher but
started moving lower from opening tick citing selling pressure in
the PSU Banks which witnessed 'Sell on News' kind of scenario
post the news of recapitalization amount announcement. After an
initial first half of weakness, the second half was slightly
encouraging with Bank Nifty witnessing sharp bounce supported
by private banks which constitute the majority of the Index weight
age and ended with marginal gains of 0.17% over its previous
close. With the above-said price action and volatility, the Bank
Index ended up forming a 'Dragon Fly Doji' which indicates
uncertainty at higher levels. Going ahead with oscillators still
placed in overbought territory we sense the Index may continue to
trade choppy in this budget week. Traders are advised to be very
selective while picking the stocks within the sector and to have a
proper trade setup.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 27160
Resistance 1 - 27540
Support 2 - 27030
Resistance 2 - 27620
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 29.62%
BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 31.64%
as market closed at 11069.65 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a discount of 7.05
points against a premium of 19.40 points in last trading
session. The March series closed at a premium of 5.50
points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 18.04 to 17.51. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has decreased from
1.81 to 1.42 level.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are RNAVAL, JPASSOCIAT, RCOM, JINDALSTEL
and BALRAMCHIN.
Views
FIIs continue their buying streak in cash market segment,
OI Gainers
they bought to the tune of Rs. 937 crores. While, they
OI
PRICE
were bought significant in index futures worth Rs. 3945
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
crores with fall in OI, mainly due to expiry.
FORTIS
54089000
2.07
157.30
2.10
On options front, they were net buyers of Rs. 2033 crores
UPL
11931600
1.45
768.95
-6.40
with fall in OI. As far as Nifty options activities are
DHFL
25773000
0.69
595.80
3.63
concerned, build-up is scattered between 11100-12000
TITAN
10467000
0.40
884.10
-0.08
call and
10500-11000 put options. Maximum
-
-
-
-
-
concentration of OI for February series is placed at
-
-
-
-
-
10800, followed by 11500 call; whereas, in put option is
-
-
-
-
-
visible in 10500 strike.
-
-
-
-
-
During the series, we saw good amount of long
formation in index futures and we believe decent amount
of these positions are still intact. Rollover in Nifty is at
OI Losers
66%, in line with three month average; whereas, in case
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
of BankNifty is on the higher side at 71%. However, we
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
witnessed good amount of short formation in index
BHARATFORG
5797200
-56.13
721.15
-3.06
futures from FIIs desk; but in line to their last one year
BHEL
43717500
-50.92
103.00
-1.20
trend they refrained from rolling their short positions.
UBL
1006600
-47.67
1142.75
-0.80
Now, their index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ stands at
BERGEPAINT
1485000
-35.71
253.15
0.32
80%; suggesting majority of their positions are on long
DIVISLAB
1781600
-35.22
1120.30
1.39
side. After relentless selling for the five consecutive
BPCL
7567200
-34.78
480.65
0.25
months, stronger hands were net buyers in cash segment
ICICIPRULI
4296500
-33.38
429.90
-0.59
to the tune of Rs. 9518 crores. Considering the above
MINDTREE
2228400
-32.79
749.55
-0.71
data points, we would advise traders avoiding any
bearish bets unless we see any relevant signs of profit
booking.
Put-Call Ratio
Historical Volatility
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
SCRIP
HV
NIFTY
1.42
1.01
UPL
43.19
BANKNIFTY
1.27
1.26
AJANTPHARM
38.34
RELIANCE
0.53
0.42
INDIANB
50.60
INFY
0.59
0.58
MOTHERSUMI
29.47
TATAMOTORS
0.76
0.63
SYNDIBANK
61.66
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2018
FII Statistics for January 25, 2018
Turnover on January 25, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
11019.48
7074.52
3944.96
180775
15343.74
(49.35)
627349
56367.81
64.30
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
132147.26
130114.43
2032.83
633231
53605.53
(39.64)
14671665
1421185.52
85.74
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
39244.64
38128.21
1116.43
982044
74988.00
(6.25)
STOCK
FUTURES
2561583
195433.08
20.66
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
4760.85
4394.39
366.46
1302
108.57
(99.00)
946066
77222.00
-3.45
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
187172.23
179711.55
7460.69
1797352
144045.84
(30.45)
TOTAL
18806663
1750208.42
68.06
Nifty Spot = 11069.65
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
11100
181.20
Buy
11100
221.00
45.40
54.60
11145.40
43.75
56.25
11056.25
Sell
11200
135.80
Sell
11000
177.25
Buy
11100
181.20
Buy
11100
221.00
81.10
118.90
11181.10
80.85
119.15
11019.15
Sell
11300
100.10
Sell
10900
140.15
Buy
11200
135.80
Buy
11000
177.25
35.70
64.30
11235.70
37.10
62.90
10962.90
Sell
11300
100.10
Sell
10900
140.15
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
425
431
440
446
456
AMBUJACEM
257
260
262
265
267
ASIANPAINT
1,134
1,142
1,152
1,160
1,170
AUROPHARMA
623
631
646
654
668
AXISBANK
591
603
611
624
632
BAJAJ-AUTO
3,267
3,289
3,318
3,340
3,368
BAJFINANCE
1,680
1,695
1,719
1,734
1,757
BPCL
467
474
480
487
493
BHARTIARTL
435
444
454
463
473
INFRATEL
336
340
344
348
353
BOSCHLTD
19,296
19,469
19,680
19,853
20,063
CIPLA
605
613
622
630
639
COALINDIA
291
295
299
303
307
DRREDDY
2,375
2,442
2,519
2,586
2,663
EICHERMOT
25,964
26,242
26,486
26,764
27,008
GAIL
471
482
491
502
510
HCLTECH
977
993
1,007
1,023
1,036
HDFCBANK
1,939
1,957
1,968
1,986
1,998
HDFC
1,866
1,887
1,905
1,926
1,944
HEROMOTOCO
3,498
3,535
3,597
3,634
3,696
HINDALCO
250
255
261
265
271
HINDPETRO
374
379
387
393
401
HINDUNILVR
1,352
1,362
1,370
1,381
1,389
IBULHSGFIN
1,326
1,360
1,382
1,416
1,439
ICICIBANK
345
353
359
367
373
IOC
386
389
392
395
398
INDUSINDBK
1,691
1,711
1,723
1,742
1,755
INFY
1,153
1,164
1,174
1,185
1,195
ITC
276
279
281
283
286
KOTAKBANK
1,032
1,062
1,080
1,110
1,128
LT
1,377
1,397
1,412
1,432
1,447
LUPIN
930
940
955
965
980
M&M
742
750
756
764
770
MARUTI
9,103
9,190
9,338
9,425
9,573
NTPC
169
170
173
175
177
ONGC
204
206
209
212
215
POWERGRID
191
193
195
196
198
RELIANCE
949
957
965
973
981
SBIN
298
306
319
327
340
SUNPHARMA
567
573
585
591
603
TCS
3,028
3,075
3,127
3,174
3,226
TATAMOTORS
392
396
402
406
412
TATASTEEL
752
761
767
775
782
TECHM
575
587
600
612
625
ULTRACEMCO
4,235
4,298
4,344
4,407
4,453
UPL
720
744
786
811
852
VEDANTA
332
339
345
352
359
WIPRO
304
308
313
317
322
YESBANK
352
357
361
366
369
ZEEL
584
590
598
604
612
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 29, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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