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June 28, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
35365)
On Friday, Bank Nifty started on a positive note and with positive
momentum throughout the session ended around the high point
with gains of 1.54% at 35365.
In our recent outlook, we have been mentioning a possibility of a
catch-up move in the bank index and that is exactly what we say
on Friday snapping the last two weeks' losing streak. On the daily
chart, we can see prices just closing below the descending trend
line resistance formed by joining the trend line from the all-time
high level to the recent swing high. Going with the momentum of
Friday, we would pre-empt and expect the prices to break above
the resistance and continue to drive the benchmark index into
new territory. Hence, we would suggest using intraday dips to
enter long in the banking space. Having said that, we would
refrain from taking aggressive bets overnight. As far as levels are
concerned, 35810 - 36000 is the immediate resistance whereas
35200 - 34900 is the immediate support zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 35200 Resistance 1 – 35810
Support 2 – 34900 Resistance 2 – 36000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Sensex (52925) / Nifty (15860)
The massive correction in US markets last Friday had a continuation
on Monday morning to haunt traders across the globe. As a result,
our markets opened with more than a percent cut to test the 15500
mark. However this was followed by a remarkable vshaped recovery
in the remaining part of the day. For the subsequent two sessions,
markets consolidated at higher levels with no clear intent. However,
towards the fag end of the week the bulls were back with some
strength to mark highest ever weekly close tad below 15900.
In our previous weekly commentary, we had advocated some
caution considering the formation of ‘Hanging Man’ pattern on
weekly chart. To activate this, the prices should have slipped below
the low i.e. 15450 in this case. But since it reversed from 15500, the
pattern was not confirmed. Also, we had shared our observation on
the placement of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 index around some crucial
levels. All these negative developments have not been completely
negated yet; but the kind of up move we witnessed in BANKNIFTY
on Friday’s session, the bulls seem to have upper hand here. Hence,
banking becomes a deciding factor going ahead. A follow up move
in the coming sessions would definitely push the Nifty towards its
much awaited milestone of 16000 and may even extend towards
16200 later. Hence, it would be interesting to see how things pan
out in the banking space.
As far as supports are concerned, the immediate levels are placed
at 15700 15670 and the base is to be seen at 15450 now. Till the
time market defends these important supports, the short term
trend remains bullish. But having said that we would still reiterate
that one should avoid being complacent and it’s better to continue
with the strategy of ‘one step at a time’. Because although it’s
difficult to time it, whenever any rally overstretches without giving
any meaningful correction, market tends to surprise anytime. So to
be on the safer side, try to avoid aggressive leveraged positions
overnight.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 15700 Resistance 1 – 15920
Support 2 – 15670 Resistance 2 – 16000
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Nifty Vs OI
15200
15300
15400
15500
15600
15700
15800
15900
16000
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
5/28 6/1 6/3 6/7 6/9 6/11 6/15 6/17 6/21 6/23
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Post last Friday’s smart recovery, we began Monday’s
session’s with downside gap but smart recovery was
seen to reclaim 15750 mark on the same day. In next
session, we saw extension of up move towards
15850-15900 but failed to sustain at higher levels
and then as we progressed index traded in the range
of 250 points. On Friday, once again index inched
higher to conclude the week tad above 15850 mark.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 679 crores. In index futures front, they sold worth
Rs 858 crores with fall in open interest indicating long
unwinding.
In June series, we did not see any addition of
positions in Nifty but some shorts were formed in the
banking index which led to its underperformance.
Now, the rollover in Nifty is around 85% versus its
3-month average of 76%; while that in BankNifty is
around 84% versus its average of 76%. FII's formed
mixed positions during the series but their 'Long
Short Ratio' at the start of new series is at 82%. Now,
the immediate supports for Nifty are placed around
15700 mark; while resistance is seen around 15900-
16000. The F&O data remains unclear for Nifty;
hence, traders’ are advised to stay light in index and
prefer trading in individual counters.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 3.46%.
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 5.28%
as market closed at 15860.35 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a premium of 27.65
point against a premium of 42.00 point in last trading
session. The August series closed at a premium of 75.65
point.
The INDIA VIX decreased from 15.09 to 13.36.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.21 to 1.20.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, GMRINFRA, NATIONALUM, SUNTV
and
PNB
.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDEA 617260000 34.03 10.60 10.82
KOTAKBANK 17613200 22.64 1735.00 0.03
APOLLOHOSP 2070250 20.28 3439.00 7.06
SUNTV 11464500 14.18 542.90 0.63
INDUSTOWER 12706400 14.11 244.45 0.57
CUMMINSIND 2946000 13.82 857.95 3.31
CHOLAFIN 6812500 10.53 531.90 0.30
NATIONALUM 84813000 9.70 73.45 7.56
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
MARUTI 1853600 -10.29 7648.80 1.42
COFORGE 593800 -5.17 4097.70 0.27
M&MFIN 43628000 -3.24 159.05 2.18
NAUKRI 1082125 -2.43 4954.20 3.48
TVSMOTOR 5411000 -2.18 622.35 1.42
GAIL 29103100 -2.15 153.10 0.52
MINDTREE 1730400 -1.75 2552.75 0.63
ADANIENT 16430000 -1.75 1519.45 0.66
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.20 0.85
BANKNIFTY 1.08 0.85
RELIANCE 0.48 0.40
ICICIBANK 0.74 0.47
INFY 0.79 0.50
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
APOLLOHOSP 47.73
NATIONALUM 56.96
IDEA 101.78
MFSL 55.98
TATASTEEL 53.31
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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 28, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
15860.35
FII Statistics for June 25, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
2823.55 3681.27 (857.72) 132668 10821.92 (5.50)
INDEX
OPTIONS
250451.65 250598.66 (147.01) 753575 66626.06 30.85
STOCK
FUTURES
13241.95 13198.45 43.50
1337546 106967.36 1.58
STOCK
OPTIONS
11500.52 11797.57 (297.05) 124553 9718.04 92.91
Total 278017.67
279275.95
(1258.28) 2348342
194133.38
11.95
Turnover on June 25, 2021
Instru
ment
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
2,58,376 21824.06 -49.21
Index
Options
2,40,24,982 23,29,766.90 -69.95
Stock Futures
7,70,358 60124.95 -56.21
Stock
Options
19,70,631 1,53,306.09 -8.12
Total 2,70,24,347 25,65,022.00 -68.33
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15900 234.60
51.15 48.85 15951.15
Sell 16000 183.45
Buy 15900 234.60
95.75 104.25 15995.75
Sell 16100 138.85
Buy 16000 183.45
44.60 55.40 16044.60
Sell 16100 138.85
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 15900 138.85
-44.60 144.60 15944.60
Sell 15800 183.45
Buy 15900 138.85
-95.75 295.75 15995.75
Sell 15700 234.60
Buy 15800 183.45
-51.15 151.15 15851.15
Sell 15700 234.60
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200 16300
Call Put
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Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
700
706
713
719
725
ASIANPAINT 2,946 2,975
3,014
3,043
3,083
AXISBANK
727
744
755
772
783
BAJAJ-AUTO 4,137 4,166
4,208
4,237
4,279
BAJFINANCE 5,994 6,035
6,071
6,112
6,148
BAJAJFINSV 12,243
12,365
12,442
12,564
12,642
BPCL
464
467
469
473
475
BHARTIARTL
527
531
533
538
540
BRITANNIA 3,610 3,640
3,675
3,705
3,740
CIPLA
944
950
956
962
968
COALINDIA
146
147
148
150
151
DIVISLAB 4,211 4,230
4,259
4,278
4,308
DRREDDY 5,235 5,272
5,304
5,341
5,373
EICHERMOT 2,668 2,694
2,710
2,736
2,752
GRASIM 1,479 1,493
1,504
1,518
1,529
HCLTECH
978
987
998
1,007
1,019
HDFCBANK 1,500 1,507
1,515
1,522
1,530
HDFCLIFE
712
719
725
732
738
HDFC 2,469 2,489
2,502
2,522
2,535
HEROMOTOCO 2,883 2,911
2,930
2,958
2,978
HINDALCO
367
372
376
380
385
HINDUNILVR 2,416 2,432
2,461
2,477
2,506
ICICIBANK
631
640
645
654
659
IOC
110
111
112
112
113
INDUSINDBK
973
993
1,007
1,026
1,040
INFY 1,530 1,552
1,565
1,587
1,600
ITC
203
204
205
206
207
JSW STEEL
675
682
692
700
710
KOTAKBANK 1,704 1,719
1,737
1,752
1,770
LT 1,498 1,511
1,520
1,533
1,542
M&M
783
789
795
801
807
MARUTI 7,493 7,571
7,618
7,696
7,743
NESTLEIND 17,316
17,411
17,531
17,626
17,746
NTPC
114
115
117
118
120
ONGC
117
119
122
124
127
POWERGRID
228
229
231
233
234
RELIANCE 2,041 2,073
2,113
2,145
2,185
SBILIFE
979
993
1,005
1,019
1,032
SHREECEM 28,450
28,590
28,745
28,884
29,039
SBIN
414
422
426
434
438
SUNPHARMA
659
666
671
678
684
TCS 3,327 3,354
3,377
3,404
3,426
TATACONSUM
748
753
758
763
768
TATAMOTORS
333
336
339
343
346
TATASTEEL 1,115 1,140
1,155
1,180
1,195
TECHM 1,064 1,077
1,090
1,103
1,116
TITAN 1,713 1,733
1,763
1,783
1,813
ULTRACEMCO 6,828 6,875
6,938
6,985
7,048
UPL
795
800
807
812
819
WIPRO
536
542
546
552
557
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June 28, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalrese[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com