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January 28, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
30284)
Post a mid-week holiday, the bank index started on a flat note
however the rub-off effect from the previous sessions pulled the
bank index lower. For the first half it moved gradually lower
however in the second half the sell-off aggravated to eventually
end with a loss of around 3% at 30284.
Last week, we mentioned a double top breakdown and we have
now seen a strong follow-up sell-off after that to erase more
than 2500 points from the all-time high in just four sessions. The
bank index has now reached a trend line support seen on the
daily chart; we sense this support to be broken sooner or later
however as the hourly oscillators are oversold and as its expiry
day we may see some volatility around the same. Traders are
advised to avoid aggressive bets ahead of the key event and
keep positions light. As far as levels are concerned, immediate
support is placed around 29650 and 29446 whereas resistance is
seen around 30620 and 30900 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 29650 Resistance 1 – 30620
Support 2 – 29446 Resistance 2 – 30900
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
47410)
/ Nifty
(
13967
)
Our markets were closed on Tuesday on account of the Republic
Day; but the global peers had couple of weak sessions, which we
had to digest at the opening yesterday. Surprisingly, markets
opened on a flat note, taking cues from the positive Dow futures
yesterday morning. However, this turned out to be a formality as
the selling resumed right from the word go to slide back to the
negative territory. As the day progressed, indices kept on breaching
all intraday supports one after another. Eventually, the Nifty
concluded with almost couple of percent losses to mark close
below 14000 for the first time in the new year.
The way market behaved in the previous two sessions, it was clearly
a sign of weakness and we had hinted towards the possible
correction from the levels of 14600 – 14750. The main reason
behind this pre-emption was the 3-points ‘Negative Divergence’ at
new high. This anticipation turned into a conviction after banking
index confirming a ‘Double Top’ on Friday by closing below crucial
swing lows. The Nifty was yet to follow this and yesterday finally it
broke important support of 14222 with some authority. It is rare to
see market giving trend reversal ahead of the major event, but
looking at yesterday’s close, further correction looks on cards. We
continue to remain cautious and advice using bounce back to go
short with a momentum perspective. For the coming session,
14100 followed by 14200 are to be seen as immediate hurdles;
whereas on the flipside, 13850 13772 are the levels to watch out
for.
Since the much awaited correction has come before the event,
things have become extremely tricky now. It would be difficult for
both counter parties (Bulls and Bears) to carry their positions on
the event day as both would find themselves stranded at the
middle of the ocean.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 13850 Resistance 1 – 14100
Support 2 – 13772 Resistance2 – 14200
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 28, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
13600
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
1/1 1/5 1/7 1/11 1/13 1/15 1/19 1/21 1/25
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
January series is an historical one as the benchmark index
clocking fresh record highs tad above 14750. However, in
merely last four trading sessions all the gains during the
series has been wiped-off. Yesterday, we had a muted start
but follow-up selling during the remaining part of the day
led closing with a cut of almost a percent..
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 1688 crore. In index future segment, they sold worth
Rs. 1327 crore with increase in open interest indicating
short forrmation in yesterday’s session.
We saw some profit booking in both the indices yesterday.
In recent fall, good amount of writing was seen in ATM
and slightly OTM call options which has now resulted the
PCR-OI falling below 1 after quite some time. In addition,
we also witnessed the volatility index surging to 24.40,
further rise beyond 25.50-26 may be a sign of concern as
we haven’t seen INDIAVIX closing at such higher levels in
last five series. The benchmark index has concluded
yesterday’s session at a very crucial level; hence, follow-up
move on the expiry day is very important to watch. At
present, we would advise traders avoiding any aggressive
bets on the monthly expiry ahead of the key event.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.00%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.83%
as market closed at13967.50 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 15.05
point against a premium of 14.25 point in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
52.85 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 23.24 to 24.39.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.02 to 0.89.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are M&M, TITAN, MANAPPURAM, GODREJCP
and UPL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
ICICIGI 1232925 17.64 1378.80 -4.32
INDUSINDBK 17001900 13.15 820.15 -3.42
CANBK 55819800 10.89 131.20 -2.20
INDUSTOWER 12348000 9.08 238.35 0.50
BANKBARODA 67122900 8.70 74.05 0.07
IDEA 945630000 6.40 11.60 -1.28
MCDOWELL-N 11900000 5.71 644.90 1.80
SUNTV 11440500 5.67 487.65 -1.03
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
L&TFH 27102188 -19.34 87.60 -1.02
FINNIFTY 44080 -19.27 14723.90 -2.61
NATIONALUM 67405000 -16.67 47.90 3.46
CONCOR 8022879 -15.60 432.95 2.73
VOLTAS 2280000 -14.19 913.50 -2.85
RBLBANK 27793600 -13.63 218.65 -1.78
INDIGO 2827000 -13.39 1590.15 -0.22
LALPATHLAB 203500 -11.81 2350.55 2.28
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 0.89 0.80
BANKNIFTY 0.56 1.03
RELIANCE 0.42 0.44
ICICIBANK 0.50 0.75
INFY 0.35 0.55
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
NAUKRI 56.08
HDFCBANK 38.35
UBL 41.97
DRREDDY 35.84
TITAN 43.98
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 28, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
13967.50
FII Statistics for January 27, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
8069.45 9397.02 (1327.57) 180035 17654.64 14.82
INDEX
OPTIONS
578799.37 576690.54 2108.83
935355 90664.49 10.35
STOCK
FUTURES
39287.92 39470.83 (182.91) 1197931 95649.40 (2.55)
STOCK
OPTIONS
9748.51 9765.63 (17.12) 152575 12151.27 (8.52)
Total 635905.25
635324.02
581.23
2465896
216119.80
2.72
Turnover on January 27, 2020
Instrume
nt
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 6,35,480 57387.61 14.65
Index Options 4,89,99,362
42,65,871.22 42.26
Stock Futures 18,31,757 1,49,577.45 -6.70
Stock Options 17,29,515 1,48,461.72 -39.56
Total 5,31,96,114
46,21,298.00 33.77
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14000 56.30
33.35 66.65 14033.35
Sell 14100 22.95
Buy 14000 56.30
46.95 153.05 14046.95
Sell 14200 9.35
Buy 14100 22.95
13.60 86.40 14113.60
Sell 14200 9.35
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14000 73.80
39.45 60.55 13960.55
Sell 13900 34.35
Buy 14000 73.80
58.50 141.50 13941.50
Sell 13800 15.30
Buy 13900 34.35
19.05 80.95 13880.95
Sell 13800 15.30
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
13400 13500 13600 13700 13800 13900 14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 28, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
499
509
522
532
546
ASIANPAINT 2,370 2,403
2,464
2,498
2,559
AXISBANK
605
618
641
655
678
BAJAJ-AUTO 4,035 4,091
4,164
4,219
4,292
BAJFINANCE 4,733 4,789
4,867
4,923
5,002
BAJAJFINSV 8,908 9,017
9,151
9,260
9,394
BPCL
373
377
384
387
394
BHARTIARTL
552
562
572
581
591
BRITANNIA 3,562 3,586
3,618
3,643
3,674
CIPLA
810
826
841
858
873
COALINDIA
126
128
130
132
134
DIVISLAB 3,388 3,435
3,518
3,565
3,648
DRREDDY 4,712 4,811
4,932
5,030
5,151
EICHERMOT 2,668 2,729
2,831
2,892
2,994
GAIL
124
126
129
131
134
GRASIM 1,012 1,037
1,076
1,100
1,139
HCLTECH
933
944
954
965
975
HDFCBANK 1,363 1,387
1,429
1,452
1,495
HDFCLIFE
662
672
684
694
706
HDFC 2,402 2,435
2,491
2,523
2,579
HEROMOTOCO 3,237 3,298
3,391
3,452
3,545
HINDALCO
223
227
234
238
244
HINDUNILVR 2,294 2,343
2,384
2,433
2,474
ICICIBANK
507
515
527
535
547
IOC
88
90
92
93
95
INDUSINDBK
774
797
829
852
884
INFY 1,262 1,282
1,305
1,324
1,347
ITC
205
208
210
213
216
JSW STEEL
366
371
377
382
387
KOTAKBANK 1,701 1,733
1,778
1,810
1,855
LT 1,298 1,329
1,361
1,392
1,423
M&M
730
750
783
804
837
MARUTI 7,658 7,764
7,927
8,034
8,197
NESTLEIND 17,235
17,386
17,492
17,644
17,749
NTPC
89
90
92
93
94
ONGC
87
88
90
91
93
POWERGRID
187
190
192
195
197
RELIANCE 1,866 1,880
1,903
1,917
1,940
SBILIFE
849
866
875
891
901
SHREECEM 22,334
22,577
22,988
23,231
23,643
SBIN
266
271
278
283
290
SUNPHARMA
551
560
573
583
595
TCS 3,185 3,223
3,265
3,303
3,344
TATAMOTORS
260
264
269
273
279
TATASTEEL
606
616
634
644
661
TECHM
961
979
992
1,010
1,023
TITAN 1,386 1,413
1,459
1,486
1,532
ULTRACEMCO 5,229 5,317
5,418
5,506
5,608
UPL
549
562
581
594
614
WIPRO
429
438
446
455
464
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 28, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalre[email protected]king.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.d[email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com