Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty Bank Outlook - (23414)
Bank Nifty too started on a positive note and the undertone
remained positive throughout the session. During the last hour,
the bank index extended the morning gains to end at 23414 with
1.39%. Even though we sounded skeptical for the benchmark
index during the last few sessions we remained upbeat for the
bank index outperformance. The same has been seen in the last
few sessions. On the daily chart, the bank index has now closed
above previous swing high and the way some of the heavy weight
banking space are placed we expect positive momentum can
continue on the F&O expiry day. Traders are henced advised to
have stock specific appoach from the basket that are likely to give
outperforming opportunites. As far as levels are concerned
previous resistance around 23200 and 23000 can act as support
whereas on the higher side the rising channel (as seen in chart)
higher range at 23800 - 24000 can act as immediate resistance.
Support 1 – 23200 Resistance 1 – 23800
Support 2 – 23000 Resistance 2 – 24000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (39074) / Nifty (11550)
Despite sluggish global cues, our markets started the day marginally
higher above the 11500 mark. Subsequently, index remained in a
slender range for the major part of the day. However, all of a sudden,
strong buying momentum triggered at the stroke of the penultimate
hour in some of the banking heavyweights, resulting in a spike of
50-60 points in Nifty to post the highest close beyond 11500 in the
last six months.
Clearly, the market is in a beast mode at present and is in no mood
to correct. Since the last few days, we have not been
participating actively in index on the long side. Although it has
strongly maintained its positive posture, the real momentum is
clearly lacking. But yes this cannot be the excuse of letting this move
go. There are times in the market, when things do not go as per the
expectation and this is exactly the same. But we do not want to get
carried away by this, because it's not giving us any comfort and
sometimes there is absolutely no harm in avoiding extended moves.
For the coming session, 11575-11625 would be seen as immediate
upside levels and it coincides with one of the clusters of resistances.
On the downside, intraday support is placed at 11500 - 11440 and
with reference to previous commentary, if any weakness has to
trigger, the Nifty should break and sustain below 11440.
Support 1 – 11500 Resistance 1 – 11575
Support 2 – 11440 Resistance 2 – 11625
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
The banking continues to be in the driving seat and one after
another, banking and financial stocks are giving some decent moves.
Apart from this, recently, we actively participated in Mid Caps and
although, the aggression has reduced a bit, we are still
following stock specific midcaps. Traders can continue with this
approach but need to manage risk properly and booking timely
profits is also advocated.