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January 27, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
look
-
(
31198)
BankNifty aswell started on a positive note on Monday however
it witnessed selling pressure at higher levels to trade choppy for
the major part of the session. Eventually, in the last hour, a strong
selloff was seen to erase all morning gains to end around Friday's
close with negligible change tad at 31200.
In our previous outlook, we had mentioned a double top
breakdown and any bounce likely to get sold into. This is what
we exactly saw on Monday when the bank index witnessed a
bounce the breakdown level acted as a stiff barrier. Going ahead,
we sense the bank nifty is likely to remain under pressure and
any bounce is likely to get sold into. Traders are hence advised to
keep positions light and avoid undue risk ahead of the key event.
As far as levels are concerned, immediate support is placed at
30900 - 30450 levels whereas resistance is seen around 31700 -
32000 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30900 Resistance 1 – 31700
Support 2 – 30450 Resistance 2 – 32000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (48348) / Nifty (14239)
Monday morning, the global set up was just ideal to have a good
head start for the final week of the January month. However, within
few minutes of trade, market skidded sharply to not only pare
down all gains but also entered a negative territory. For the
remaining few hours, Nifty gyrated in a range with higher volatility
and eventually managed to extend losses in last couple of hours to
close tad below the 14250 mark.
On Friday, markets had hinted towards some weakness and the
bears used Monday’s gap up opening to add bearish bets at higher
levels. The major culprit in Monday’s sell off was RELIANCE, after its
quarterly numbers along with few financial stocks. However, the tail
end correction was mainly led by the sudden nosedive in few IT
heavyweights. The banking had a solid knock on Friday, which has
already weakened its short term trend and Monday, Nifty had a
catch up move to this. At the close, Nifty is placed at crucial swing
low of 14222, which remained unbroken on a closing basis.
However, the way charts are shaped up, the possibility of sliding
below this level is quite high to test 14100 14000 levels. On the
flipside, 14360 – 14500 are likely to act as Immediate hurdles.
We continue with our cautious stance on the market and as
mentioned in the previous commentary, traders are advised to stay
light on positions. Generally, market does not give any major trend
reversal ahead of the mega event; but this time, it looks like we are
going to witness yet another unprecedented behaviour of the
market. Next couple of days would be quite crucial and would be
interesting to see whether markets correct further or it shows some
resilience to protect it’s crucial supports.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14100 Resistance 1 – 14360
Support 2 – 14000 Resistance2 – 14500
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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January 27, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
13700
13800
13900
14000
14100
14200
14300
14400
14500
14600
14700
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
1/1 1/5 1/7 1/11 1/13 1/15 1/19 1/21 1/25
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
We began the truncated week on an optimistic note, but
these early morning gains were short lived as we saw
sharp profit booking in the initial half an hour to drag
index towards 14350. Post some consolidation in the
midst, index resumed its down fall to plunge towards
14200. Eventually, index concluded the day with a cut of
almost a percent to Friday’s close..
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 765 crore. In index future segment, they bought worth
Rs. 1861 crore with increase in open interest indicating
long forrmation on Monday.
It is the third consecutive session wherein we witnessed
decent profit booking along with some shorts in Nifty
futures; in case of banking index, good amount of short
positions were formed in recent fall. Surprisingly, after
quite some time stronger hands added good amount of
longs in index futures and index call options. As a result,
their long short ratio surged from 59% to 64%. In index
options front, we saw fresh writing in 14300-14500 call
strikes. On the other side, except for some build-up in
14200 put, we hardly saw any relevant open interest
activities in the put strikes. At current juncture, around
14200 is an immediate support zone and any correction
below this may drag index towards 13900-14000. On the
upper side, 14300-14400 shall act as a hurdle now.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.22%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 8.47%
as market closed at 14238.90 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 14.25
point against a premium of 8.3 point in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
62.60 point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 22.42 to 23.24.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty decreased from
1.14 to 1.02.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are PNB, EICHERMOT, DLF, GODREJCP and
KOTAKBANK.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
HDFCAMC 580600 15.98 2953.15 -4.38
SUNTV 10827000 11.99 491.55 -3.70
DLF 27033600 10.84 269.95 0.13
IDEA 888790000 9.66 11.76 -7.84
BERGEPAINT 3050300 9.52 748.45 -3.32
LALPATHLAB 230750 9.49 2282.85 -0.63
APOLLOHOSP 1642500 9.25 2686.90 3.34
PVR 2326412 8.71 1462.80 -3.52
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDFCFIRSTB 157035000 -15.83 48.05 -2.93
ULTRACEMCO 1594000 -15.09 5368.25 -3.59
PNB 191040000 -12.73 34.15 -0.58
SIEMENS 829950 -10.34 1671.45 0.55
JINDALSTEL 25045000 -9.54 279.65 -0.57
GODREJPROP 1782950 -9.41 1327.25 -1.72
RECLTD 13266000 -9.24 137.80 -1.32
BOSCHLTD 96900 -7.80 15877.15 1.06
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.02 0.89
BANKNIFTY 0.71 1.05
RELIANCE 0.42 0.47
ICICIBANK 0.54 0.59
INFY 0.36 0.57
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
BAJAJ-AUTO 41.02
APOLLOTYRE 55.72
BIOCON 60.83
SAIL 67.40
ASIANPAINT 38.25
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 27, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14238.90
FII Statistics for January 25, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
8658.83 6797.96 1860.87
156792 15555.41 10.71
INDEX
OPTIONS
442618.04 441360.57 1257.47
847629 83675.33 11.38
STOCK
FUTURES
49481.62 48809.65 671.97
1229336 99849.03 0.57
STOCK
OPTIONS
17936.75 17546.10 390.65
166791 13514.10 (13.39)
Total 518695.24
514514.28
4180.96
2400548
212593.87
3.58
Turnover on January 25, 2020
Instrume
nt
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 5,46,588 50053.85 -6.98
Index Options 3,33,00,559
29,98,662.86 12.22
Stock Futures 19,26,757 1,60,320.22 26.69
Stock Options 28,58,181 2,45,621.26 -10.22
Total 3,86,32,085
34,54,658.19 10.51
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14300 76.35
38.05 61.95 14338.05
Sell 14400 38.30
Buy 14300 76.35
58.00 142.00 14358.00
Sell 14500 18.35
Buy 14400 38.30
19.95 80.05 14419.95
Sell 14500 18.35
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14300 121.50
44.30 55.70 14255.70
Sell 14200 77.20
Buy 14300 121.50
74.60 125.40 14225.40
Sell 14100 46.90
Buy 14200 77.20
30.30 69.70 14169.70
Sell 14100 46.90
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
1000,000
2000,000
3000,000
4000,000
5000,000
6000,000
7000,000
13700 13800 13900 14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000
Call Put
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January 27, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
506
515
531
540
556
ASIANPAINT 2,418 2,466
2,549
2,597
2,679
AXISBANK
627
643
655
671
684
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,996 4,083
4,146
4,233
4,296
BAJFINANCE 4,714 4,811
4,987
5,084
5,260
BAJAJFINSV 8,943 9,071
9,208
9,336
9,473
BPCL
373
380
392
399
410
BHARTIARTL
561
571
579
589
598
BRITANNIA 3,546 3,580
3,610
3,644
3,673
CIPLA
785
811
834
860
883
COALINDIA
128
130
133
135
137
DIVISLAB 3,439 3,504
3,547
3,612
3,654
DRREDDY 4,889 4,985
5,057
5,154
5,225
EICHERMOT 2,738 2,804
2,917
2,983
3,096
GAIL
129
131
134
136
139
GRASIM
969
1,020
1,067
1,117
1,165
HCLTECH
906
927
962
983
1,018
HDFCBANK 1,440 1,452
1,466
1,478
1,492
HDFCLIFE
648
664
682
698
716
HDFC 2,461 2,506
2,588
2,633
2,715
HEROMOTOCO 3,288 3,381
3,451
3,544
3,614
HINDALCO
229
235
239
245
250
HINDUNILVR 2,358 2,379
2,406
2,426
2,453
ICICIBANK
526
532
537
543
548
IOC
90
92
95
96
99
INDUSINDBK
794
821
867
895
940
INFY 1,294 1,309
1,329
1,344
1,364
ITC
203
206
209
211
215
JSW STEEL
359
371
383
394
406
KOTAKBANK 1,720 1,757
1,812
1,850
1,905
LT 1,312 1,337
1,367
1,391
1,421
M&M
769
782
797
810
826
MARUTI 7,818 7,900
8,032
8,114
8,247
NESTLEIND 16,978
17,197
17,448
17,667
17,919
NTPC
91
92
94
95
96
ONGC
88
90
92
93
95
POWERGRID
185
188
192
195
199
RELIANCE 1,866 1,904
1,969
2,007
2,072
SBILIFE
836
850
866
879
896
SHREECEM 22,600
22,928
23,489
23,817
24,378
SBIN
271
276
282
287
293
SUNPHARMA
555
571
582
598
609
TCS 3,242 3,267
3,303
3,328
3,364
TATAMOTORS
263
271
285
293
307
TATASTEEL
617
635
648
666
679
TECHM
942
957
977
993
1,013
TITAN 1,463 1,481
1,497
1,516
1,531
ULTRACEMCO 5,004 5,186
5,509
5,691
6,014
UPL
557
572
583
598
609
WIPRO
425
431
441
447
457
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 27, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com