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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 27, 2020
Sensex (
41613
) / Nifty
2248
)
The starting point of the week gone by was excellent as the pre-
open suggested a bumper opening at records highs on Monday;
courtesy to gap up opening in two major index movers (RIL and
HDFC Bank ) after posting their quarterly numbers over the
weekend. But this ecstasy at the opening was flatter to deceive.
Markets started coming off fiercely right from the word go, in fact
the selling aggravated as the day progressed to conclude with
sharp cuts. This negativity continued for subsequent two sessions
to slide towards the 12100 mark. Fortunately, the mighty bulls
came for a rescue and were successful in pulling the market
higher to end the week well above 12200.
It seems that looking at the recent behaviour, market is giving full
justice to the famous phrase ‘All’s well that ends well’. Technically
speaking, we reversed precisely from a crucial juncture. Firstly,
the support of 12100 was placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement of the recent up move from 11929.60 to 12389.05
(proper traded high). And second but most important
observation was the convergence of Upward Sloping Trend Line’
drawn by joining recent swing lows with the low of 10670.25.
Now, the forthcoming week would be crucial for our market as
we are heading for one of the mega events, Union Budget slated
on 1st February. So, most probably we are likely to see an action
packed week especially for individual stocks.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 12200 Resistance 1 – 12300
Support 2 – 12150 Resistance 2 – 12390
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Bank Outlook
-
(
31242
)
During the week gone by, the Bank Index continued with its recent
underperformance in the initial part of the week to mark an intra-
week low of 30614. However, in the last two sessions, it bounced
back sharply to trim some loss and end at 31242 with a loss of
1.10% against the previous week.
On the daily chart, the Bank Index has confirmed a bullish inside
bar pattern and going ahead the bounce back is likely to continue
31430-31600 levels. On the flip side, strong support is placed
around 30800 followed by 30600 which twice acted as strong
support during the week gone by. Ahead of key union budget and
F&O expiry session, traders are advised to have stock specific
action as they are likely to provide better trading opportunities.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 30800 Resistance 1 – 31430
Support 2 – 30600 Resistance 2 – 31600
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
As far as Nifty is concerned, we may see Nifty going back to
12300 12390 ahead of the budget and a positive outcome
would enable it crossing this sturdy wall of 12400 convincingly.
On the flipside, 12200 followed by 12150 would be seen as a
sacrosanct support zone. Last week we had mentioned about
‘Midcap’ index entering an overbought zone and possibility of
some breather cannot be ruled out. In line with this, initial part
of the week, index remained sideways and was clearly bucking
the trend by not correcting as much as our benchmark did. And
once they settled, the ‘Midcap’ universe resumed its uptrend,
which is likely to extend further.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 27, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
Views
We began the week on a cheerful note but failed to
sustain at higher levels and saw some selling attracting
the benchmark index. In the next two sessions, follow-
up selling was seen to drag index below 12100 mark.
However, index found support around 12080-12100
and smart pull back move led weekly closing tad above
12200.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 659 crores. In index futures, they sold worth
Rs. 581 crores with rise in open interest, indicating
fresh selling took place on Friday’s trade.
The open interest for Nifty remained subdued;
whereas, the banking index added 20.17% of positions
last week. On Friday, put writers added huge positions
in 12150-12300 strikes. At the same time, call writers
of 12200-12400 looked troubled and hence, covered
their positions. As we haven’t seen any relevant open
interest activity in Nifty from quite some time, we expect
Nifty to remain in the range of
12000-12100 on the lower side and 12400-12500 on
the higher side.
Comments
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.50%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased 0.10% as
market closed at 12248.25 levels.
The Nifty January future closed with a premium of 23.00
points against a premium of 20.65 points in last trading
session. The February series closed at a premium of
61.25 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 15.85 to 15.56.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.16 to 1.42.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, BHEL, NCC, GMRINFRA and
CHOLAFIN.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
CUMMINSIND 2194200 18.75 595.15 4.79
BATAINDIA 2562450 12.24 1846.80 2.55
EQUITAS 23034900 10.43 110.50 4.53
ADANIENT 32712000 9.51 229.75 -0.13
NCC 53595000 9.37 59.00 1.37
ULTRACEMCO 2823000 9.00 4642.70 2.51
MUTHOOTFIN 5224500 8.95 751.95 -1.13
BHEL 99673600 8.83 45.00 3.55
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
L&TFH 38992800 -11.27 119.95 0.63
PFC 49500800 -10.86 116.35 2.28
RBLBANK 18898500 -6.57 329.70 -2.53
YESBANK 272272000 -5.87 42.80 4.90
KOTAKBANK 8812000 -5.43 1642.95 2.03
APOLLOHOSP 1839000 -4.96 1668.70 -0.72
JUSTDIAL 2556400 -4.95 608.55 -1.21
OIL 9517200 -4.73 142.15 1.59
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.42 0.92
BANKNIFTY 1.23 0.93
RELIANCE 0.41 0.51
ICICIBANK 0.59 0.62
INFY 0.79 0.86
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
CENTURYTEX 51.68
CUMMINSIND 35.76
PNBHOUSING 84.17
PVR 25.68
BRITANNIA 20.25
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 27, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
12
248.25
Lot Size = 75
FII Statistics for
January
24, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
3466.89 4047.80 (580.91) 218923 18510.88 1.17
INDEX
OPTIONS
173109.31 173852.64 (743.33) 775499 64119.32 7.01
STOCK
FUTURES
16634.86 16609.33 25.53
1591549 107480.60 0.47
STOCK
OPTIONS
6853.82 6884.12 (30.30) 92130 6399.76 (1.78)
Total 200064.88
201393.89
(1329.01) 2678101
196510.56
2.26
Turnover on
January
24
, 20
20
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
297125 22133.81 -5.31
INDEX
OPTIONS
11095302 801894.44 -75.60
STOCK
FUTURES
973539 67027.00 5.70
STOCK
OPTIONS
1037313 75684.48 4.27
TOTAL 1,34,03,279
966739.73 -71.94
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12200 108.05
57.80 42.20 12257.80
Sell 12300 50.25
Buy 12200 108.05
89.85 110.15 12289.85
Sell 12400 18.20
Buy 12300 50.25
32.05 67.95 12332.05
Sell 12400 18.20
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 12200 35.75
19.15 80.85 12180.85
Sell 12100 16.60
Buy 12200 35.75
26.75 173.25 12173.25
Sell 12000 9.00
Buy 12100 16.60
7.60 92.40 12092.40
Sell 12000 9.00
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 27, 2020
Da
ily
Pivot
Levels for Nifty
Constituents
Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
ADANIPORTS 377 381
384 388 391
ASIANPAINT 1,769 1,778
1,789 1,798 1,809
AXISBANK 712 725
733 746 754
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,048 3,061
3,077 3,090 3,106
BAJFINANCE 4,076 4,135
4,170 4,230 4,265
BAJAJFINSV 9,418 9,526
9,588 9,696 9,758
BPCL 460 463
468 471 477
BHARTIARTL 509 516
522 530 535
INFRATEL 236 240
243 247 250
BRITANNIA 3,072 3,132
3,173 3,233 3,273
CIPLA 450 455
461 465 472
COALINDIA 190 192
194 196 198
DRREDDY 3,013 3,022
3,035 3,044 3,056
EICHERMOT 20,594 20,762
20,969 21,137 21,344
GAIL 128 129
130 131 133
GRASIM 786 804
814 832 843
HCLTECH 591 599
604 613 618
HDFCBANK 1,231 1,238
1,246 1,253 1,261
HDFC 2,393 2,422
2,440 2,469 2,487
HEROMOTOCO 2,409 2,439
2,457 2,487 2,505
HINDALCO 200 203
205 208 211
HINDUNILVR 2,039 2,056
2,068 2,085 2,097
ICICIBANK 522 528
533 539 543
IOC 118 119
120 121 123
INDUSINDBK 1,286 1,301
1,323 1,338 1,360
INFY 768 775
781 788 794
ITC 236 237
238 239 240
JSW STEEL 262 267
270 275 279
KOTAKBANK 1,564 1,604
1,626 1,666 1,688
LT 1,317 1,338
1,353 1,374 1,389
M&M 560 564
568 572 576
MARUTI 7,051 7,090
7,150 7,189 7,249
NESTLEIND 15,352 15,554
15,702 15,904 16,052
NTPC 112 113
115 116 118
ONGC 116 117
118 120 121
POWERGRID 193 195
196 199 200
RELIANCE 1,508 1,515
1,525 1,532 1,543
SBIN 318 321
324 327 330
SUNPHARMA 443 445
449 452 455
TCS 2,161 2,172
2,181 2,193 2,202
TATAMOTORS 182 184
188 190 194
TATASTEEL 473 478
482 487 490
TECHM 754 771
780 796 805
TITAN 1,197 1,213
1,221 1,237 1,245
ULTRACEMCO 4,365 4,504
4,592 4,731 4,819
UPL 526 535
550 558 573
VEDANTA 152 154
156 157 159
WIPRO 245 246
248 249 251
YESBANK 39 41
43 45 47
ZEEL 275 278
282 285 288
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Technical & Derivatives Report
January 27, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022
-
39357800
Website:
www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch[email protected]gelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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