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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 26, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
24478
)
On Friday, Bank Nifty started on a positive note and then it
consolidated within a range throughout the session to end flat
tad below 24500 levels.
During the week gone by, the bank nifty outperformed as it
gained more than four percent however the index move was very
choppy after the initial strong upmove seen on Monday. Going
ahead, we continue to have a positive bias on the bank index
however we would rather prefer stock-specific action as they are
likely to give outperforming opportunity. As far as levels are
concerned, strong support is seen around 24200 and 24000
whereas immediate resistance is placed around 24800 and
25000 levels.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 24200 Resistance 1 – 24800
Support 2 – 24000 Resistance 2 – 25000
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Se
nsex
(
40686)
/ Nifty
(
11930
)
During the last week, our markets kick started the week on Monday
on a cheerful note. Although we could reclaim 12000 during the
week, the momentum was clearly lacking as the benchmark once
again looked a bit tentative around this. For index specific traders, it
was clearly a dull week as we witnessed a lot of choppy trades with
no clear direction. Eventually, the Nifty concluded the week with
more than a percent gains as compared to the previous week close.
Now, let’s dig into a bit of technicals and understand why 11650
11600 is considered to be a strong as well as crucial support zone.
If we connect all major highs from record highs in a descending
order, the trend line / pull back support comes around this level,
which coincides with the 20-day EMA as well. Hence, as long as this
support is not violated, one should adopt a buy on dips strategy. A
close below 11650 – 11600 would result in a short term trend
reversal and hence, traders should start lightening up positions
after it. Before this, intermediate supports are at 11820 11775.
Now, we are tad below 12000 and if we have to pre-empt any
direction, we expect the Nifty to surpass 12000 12050 levels in
coming days to head towards 12200 12400. If we are anticipating
this to happen then there has to be some technical evidences to
back this hypothesis and they are as follows:
.Key Levels
Support 1 – 11820 Resistance 1 – 12000
Support 2 – 11775 Resistance2 – 12050
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
1) The ‘RSI-Smoothened’ for Nifty on weekly time frame chart has
started moving northwards after entering a bullish territory above
the 70 mark, which is likely to provide impetus, 2) After a long
underperformance, banking started to show inherent strength and
as we all know when financial starts participating in any rally; it is to
be considered the robust one.To add to our conviction, the ‘ADX
14’ indicator on the daily chart is moving northwards after
surpassing the 25 mark. This development generally unfolds a big
trended move, 3) The undercurrent is strong and we are seeing
different sectors participating one after another and the way
midcap index is poised, another percent up move from hereon
would confirm a strong breakout in ‘Nifty MIDCAP 50’ index. So,
considering all this, odds are very much in favor of the bulls. But
since we are approaching a mega global event (US Presidential
election), we may see some volatility increasing and hence, keep a
regular tab of all above mentioned levels.
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 26, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
11100
11200
11300
11400
11500
11600
11700
11800
11900
12000
12100
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
10/1 10/6 10/8 10/12 10/14 10/16 10/20 10/22
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
Vie
w
s
We started-off the week on a cheerful note and saw
follow-up buying to reclaim 12000 mark. However,
buying interest was missing at the higher levels and
hence we saw index consolidating in the range of
250 points. Eventually, week concluded on a
positive note.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 907 crores. In index future segment, they sold
worth Rs. 601 crores with marginal change in open
interest, suggesting blend of long unwinding and short
formation on Friday’s session.
Despite consolidation we saw addition of some fresh
longs in the last week.
The banking index once again
outperformed the benchmark index and concluded
the week with the gains of 4%. Stronger hands
preferred adding few shorts; however, the quantum
remained insignificant. At present, 11750-12050 is
the immediate trading range and any move beyond
these levels may bring back the directional move.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.41%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 5.91%
as market closed at 11930.35levels.
The Nifty October future closed with a premium of 4.00
point against a premium of 2.20 point in last trading
session. The November series closed at a premium of
28.30 point.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 22.64 to 21.83.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from
1.34 to 1.47.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high
cost of carry are IDEA, ICICIPRULI, APOLLOHOSP, PNB
and ONGC.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
AMARAJABAT 1429000 29.67 761.00 1.87
IDEA 390180000 22.13 9.05 1.68
M&MFIN 23009364 21.27 134.70 1.43
COFORGE 568125 18.54 2380.10 -3.51
INFRATEL 11368000 14.43 192.15 -1.71
HDFCLIFE 13322100 13.23 564.30 0.48
APOLLOTYRE 11755000 10.64 149.80 5.90
EXIDEIND 11203200 10.55 162.05 1.18
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
TORNTPOWER 2232000 -17.70 322.20 4.26
IGL 5676000 -6.20 391.25 2.79
ULTRACEMCO 2042600 -6.06 4614.50 -0.62
MRF 35210 -5.55 62250.65 1.90
COLPAL 3085600 -5.16 1431.95 0.53
KOTAKBANK 10855600 -5.13 1393.05 0.28
PETRONET 11586000 -4.64 235.60 4.87
IOC 55409700 -4.28 77.70 2.23
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.47 0.88
BANKNIFTY 0.86 0.90
RELIANCE 0.42 0.39
ICICIBANK 0.75 0.58
INFY 0.42 0.57
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
NAUKRI 55.86
APOLLOTYRE 53.74
BHARATFORG 63.22
MARUTI 50.23
POWERGRID 37.66
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 26, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (October Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
11930.35
FII Statistics for October 23, 2020
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
2904.46 3505.85 (601.39) 147609 11954.97 (0.31)
INDEX
OPTIONS
126415.59 126379.98 35.61
840997 69004.08 10.78
STOCK
FUTURES
20485.25 20170.11 315.14
1115071 80860.75 (0.79)
STOCK
OPTIONS
7232.17 7203.31 28.86
105538 8244.06 0.55
Total 157037.47
157259.25
(221.78) 2209215
170063.86
3.42
Turnover on October 23, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
3,89,450 27210.08 -19.20
Index
Options
1,29,52,262
9,41,939.85 -81.38
Stock Futures
10,07,299 74894.94 12.52
Stock
Options
14,99,161 1,20,429.82 4.91
Total 1,58,48,172
11,64,474.69 -77.92
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 120.60
50.10 49.90 11950.10
Sell 12000 70.50
Buy 11900 120.60
84.60 115.40 11984.60
Sell 12100 36.00
Buy 12000 70.50
34.50 65.50 12034.50
Sell 12100 36.00
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 11900 84.25
33.85 66.15 11866.15
Sell 11800 50.40
Buy 11900 84.25
54.60 145.40 11845.40
Sell 11700 29.65
Buy 11800 50.40
20.75 79.25 11779.25
Sell 11700 29.65
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
4000,000
4500,000
5000,000
11200 11300 11400 11500 11600 11700 11800 11900 12000 12100 12200 12300 12400 12500
Call Put
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Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
352
358
364
370
375
ASIANPAINT 2,082 2,101
2,115
2,134
2,149
AXISBANK
498
503
509
514
520
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,960 3,021
3,058
3,119
3,157
BAJFINANCE 3,272 3,294
3,326
3,348
3,379
BAJAJFINSV 5,734 5,783
5,872
5,921
6,011
BPCL
346
349
352
355
358
BHARTIARTL
423
429
433
439
443
BRITANNIA 3,411 3,440
3,472
3,501
3,532
CIPLA
743
750
762
770
782
COALINDIA
115
117
117
119
119
DIVISLAB 3,010 3,040
3,092
3,121
3,173
DRREDDY 4,940 4,979
5,035
5,074
5,130
EICHERMOT 2,142 2,162
2,180
2,200
2,219
GAIL
86
86
88
89
90
GRASIM
769
777
790
799
812
HCLTECH
835
844
860
868
884
HDFCBANK 1,221 1,229
1,238
1,246
1,256
HDFCLIFE
547
556
568
577
589
HDFC 2,036 2,048
2,058
2,070
2,080
HEROMOTOCO 3,055 3,083
3,118
3,146
3,181
HINDALCO
179
180
184
185
188
HINDUNILVR 2,109 2,126
2,158
2,175
2,206
ICICIBANK
408
412
416
421
425
IOC
77
78
78
79
80
INDUSINDBK
597
602
610
616
623
INFY 1,111 1,117
1,126
1,132
1,141
ITC
167
169
170
172
173
JSW STEEL
315
318
323
326
330
KOTAKBANK 1,360 1,372
1,390
1,401
1,419
LT
919
930
939
951
960
M&M
597
611
620
634
642
MARUTI 6,727 6,915
7,020
7,208
7,313
NESTLEIND 15,654
15,760
15,913
16,019
16,172
NTPC
84
85
86
87
88
ONGC
68
69
69
70
70
POWERGRID
162
166
169
173
175
RELIANCE 2,076 2,095
2,115
2,133
2,153
SBILIFE
753
762
776
785
799
SHREECEM 19,668
20,095
20,684
21,110
21,699
SBIN
199
201
203
205
207
SUNPHARMA
476
480
487
492
499
TCS 2,654 2,671
2,686
2,703
2,718
TATAMOTORS
132
134
137
139
141
TATASTEEL
407
415
421
429
434
TECHM
823
835
846
859
870
TITAN 1,224 1,233
1,240
1,249
1,257
ULTRACEMCO 4,391 4,448
4,545
4,602
4,699
UPL
445
448
453
456
462
WIPRO
338
340
344
346
349
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Technical & Derivatives Report
October 26, 2020
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives r[email protected]gelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com