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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 26, 2020
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
21506
)
On Wednesday, we witnessed a strong bout of profit booking across
the globe and yesterday morning too, the global peers were
suggesting a weak start. As a result, our markets witnessed a gap
down opening around the crucial supports. However, within few
minutes of trade, markets started rebounding and managed to
recover completely. During the remaining sessions, we saw wild
swings where couple of attempts made to test lower range and the
higher range too. Eventually the Bank Nifty managed to close on a flat
note.
With reference to previous commentary, despite a bearish candle on
Wednesday, we remained hopeful and yesterday’s smart recovery has
justified our stance to some extent. However we are still not
completely out of danger and hence the coming session would turn
out to be a decider one. We are at crucial juncture and today we will
get a weekly close, which will decide the next path of action. As per
our understanding, as long as we are above 21200-21000, there is no
reason to worry for and a close beyond 22000 today would bring the
strength in the banking space.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 21200 Resistance 1 – 22000
Support 2 – 21000 Resistance 2 – 22200
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (34842) / Nifty (10289)
The U.S. bourses ended deeply in red and the Asian markets too were
trading with a negative bias yesterday morning. SGX Nifty was trading
with a deep cut, however, our market opened marginally negative and
took support around 10200 in first few minutes of opening. The index
then pulled higher upto 10350 and then oscillated within this range
and ended with a marginal cut of 20 points.
Post Wednesday’s correction from the highs, the global market cues
were negative for the expiry day yesterday. However, our markets
shrugged off the negative cues and witnessed a smart recovery post
opening. During the day, correction towards 10200 mark were
bought into and pullback towards 10350 were facing resistance.
Amidst this, the overall market breadth too was positive. Although we
did see formation of a bearish pattern on Wednesday, the follow up
move is much important and yesterday’s session we have seen more
of a consolidation. The coming session would be crucial being the
weekly close and could provide more clarity on the near term outlook.
The immediate supports for the index are placed around 10200 and
10100 whereas 10370 and 10450 are the resistances to watch out
for. Traders are advised to take a stock specific approach for the
coming session and trade with a proper risk management.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 10200 Resistance 1 – 10370
Support 2 – 10100 Resistance 2 – 10450
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
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June 26, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
9400
9600
9800
10000
10200
10400
10600
,0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/22 6/23 6/24
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
s
On the F&O expiry session, Nifty witnessed a volatile
session with volatile swings seen on both the sides of
trend. Nifty eventually ended with a minor loss of
0.16% at 10288.90.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 1051 crores. In index futures, they sold
worth 1002 crores with a decrease in open interest
indicating more of long unwinding on the expiry day
.
Nifty oscillated within a range of 150 points yesterday
for most part of the session. Rollover in Nifty is at 79%
v/s 3-month average of 75% whereas rollover in
BankNifty is at 81% which is in line with its average.
We witnessed a good amount of long formation in the
June series and higher rollovers indicate long positions
being rolled. However, FII's were net sellers in the cash
segment and their rollover of long positions in the
index futures segment is lower. For the coming weekly
expiry, open interest positions indicate a probable
trading range of 10000-10500 and a breakout beyond
the range is required for a directional move. Traders
are advised to focus on stock specific movement and
watch out for further development on the weekly
close today
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 15.08%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 22.39%
as market closed at 10305.30 levels.
The Nifty July future closed with a discount of 43.25 point
against a discount of 24.55 point in last trading session.
The August series closed at a discount of 47.45 point.
The INDIA VIX has increased from 29.58 to 29.73
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 1.29
to 1.50.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, GLENMARK, PNB, NATIONALUM, AND
IDFCFIRSTB.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
SUNTV 5535000 12.26 413.70 4.45
AMARAJABAT 1796000 9.46 640.25 -2.32
ADANIENT 17852000 4.96 161.65 4.30
BEL 17282400 4.10 83.70 2.19
NTPC 60231900 3.16 96.10 -1.18
NATIONALUM 36618000 3.07 34.10 5.54
PEL 3944050 3.00 1342.45 8.65
AMBUJACEM 18279000 2.78 186.25 -1.79
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
JUSTDIAL 1122800 -54.51 382.25 -0.15
TCS 7886700 -43.62 2014.75 -1.07
IDEA 173040000 -32.75 9.85 1.02
GLENMARK 3767400 -32.20 458.10 0.21
LT 9115700 -32.18 943.10 -1.46
BALKRISIND 840800 -31.80 1236.95 -1.38
MFSL 1501500 -30.21 536.00 4.86
HDFCLIFE 14499100 -28.32 538.40 1.89
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.50 0.90
BANKNIFTY 0.78 0.75
RELIANCE 0.58 0.47
ICICIBANK 0.55 0.53
INFY 0.71 0.53
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ITC 45.72
PEL 79.39
NATIONALUM 56.05
BERGEPAINT 48.36
ASIANPAINT 42.64
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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 26, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (July Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
10288.90
FII Statistics for June 25, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
8134.81
9136.64
(1001.83) 91960
6646.11
(32.64)
INDEX
OPTIONS
679932.98
679335.84
597.14
424112
30272.89
(53.26)
STOCK
FUTURES
26963.03
26228.85
734.18
1266351
81612.43
(8.47)
STOCK
OPTIONS
1974.71
2237.33
(262.62) 18900
1216.78
(71.08)
Total 717005.53
716938.66
66.87
1801323
119748.21
(27.74)
Turnover on June 25, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 10,14,549 60439.74 12.86
Index Options 7,22,07,633
39,46,830.98
98.20
Stock Futures 16,19,867 97918.73 -21.77
Stock Options 9,32,761 57753.82 -32.44
Total 7,57,74,810
41,62,943.27
84.56
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10300 317.15
51.05 48.95 10351.05
Sell 10400 266.10
Buy 10300 317.15
94.15 105.85 10394.15
Sell 10500 223.00
Buy 10400 266.10
43.10 56.90 10443.10
Sell 10500 223.00
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 10300 375.25
42.20 57.80 10257.80
Sell 10200 333.05
Buy 10300 375.25
89.35 110.65 10210.65
Sell 10100 285.90
Buy 10200 333.05
47.15 52.85 10152.85
Sell 10100 285.90
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1000,000
1200,000
1400,000
1600,000
1800,000
9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 10800 10900 11000
Call Put
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Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
337
340
346
350
355
ASIANPAINT 1,643 1,666
1,706
1,730
1,770
AXISBANK
402
412
420
430
439
BAJAJ-AUTO 2,710 2,765
2,828
2,883
2,945
BAJFINANCE 2,772 2,889
2,967
3,084
3,162
BAJAJFINSV 5,817 5,919
6,022
6,124
6,227
BPCL
357
364
374
381
391
BHARTIARTL
544
551
558
565
571
INFRATEL
212
220
226
235
241
BRITANNIA 3,394 3,422
3,448
3,477
3,503
CIPLA
623
629
635
642
648
COALINDIA
136
138
141
143
146
DRREDDY 3,944 3,975
4,008
4,040
4,073
EICHERMOT 17,674
17,882
18,129
18,337
18,584
GAIL
100
101
104
106
109
GRASIM
590
599
613
621
635
HCLTECH
540
545
553
558
566
HDFCBANK
986
1,008
1,028
1,050
1,070
HDFC 1,734 1,756
1,784
1,805
1,833
HEROMOTOCO
2,402
2,481
2,533
2,612
2,664
HINDALCO
140
143
148
151
156
HINDUNILVR 2,080 2,127
2,158
2,205
2,236
ICICIBANK
331
341
348
358
365
IOC
83
84
86
87
89
INDUSINDBK
446
460
476
490
506
INFY
688
694
700
706
712
ITC
187
195
199
207
211
JSW STEEL
188
191
194
197
200
KOTAKBANK 1,301 1,341
1,365
1,406
1,430
LT
920
931
948
960
977
M&M
496
502
509
515
522
MARUTI 5,558 5,660
5,753
5,856
5,949
NESTLEIND 16,449
16,618
16,734
16,903
17,019
NTPC
92
94
96
98
101
ONGC
78
80
82
84
86
POWERGRID
170
175
179
184
188
RELIANCE 1,691 1,704
1,727
1,740
1,763
SHREECEM 21,462
21,766
22,192
22,496
22,922
SBIN
178
182
184
188
191
SUNPHARMA
470
479
486
494
501
TCS 1,978 1,997
2,028
2,048
2,079
TATAMOTORS
99
102
104
106
109
TATASTEEL
317
320
324
327
330
TECHM
544
549
557
562
571
TITAN
961
969
982
990
1,002
ULTRACEMCO 3,7
26
3,764
3,820
3,858
3,913
UPL
428
435
445
453
462
VEDANTA
106
109
111
113
115
WIPRO
212
215
219
222
225
ZEEL
165
169
173
176
180
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Technical & Derivatives Report
June 26, 2020
*
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com