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March 26, 2021
Technical & Derivatives Report
Nifty
Bank Out
-
(
33006)
After massive sell-off on Wednesday, SGX Nifty was suggesting
cheerful start on the monthly expiry day and inline to this BankNifty
opened tad above 33400 mark. However, the buying interest was
lacking from the word go and hence we saw meaningful selling to
sneak almost towards 32400. All of a sudden in the midst, sharp
recovery was seen to recoup all the intraday losses and in fact
extended the upmove towards 33550. But, due to final hour selling at
higher levels BankNifty concluded the day around 33000 mark.
Technically speaking, index has precisely rebounded from the 89 EMA
in the daily chart which is a positive indication for Bull’s. At the same
time, we saw index testing the falling trend line support in the hourly
chart and then while recovery managed to conclude above same.
Hence, it is very important to see how the banking index behave from
hereon as the broader market still looks weak. As far as levels are
concerned, 33400-33500 should be acting as immediate hurdles;
whereas, around previous day’s lows (32415.25) is the demand zone.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 32400 Resistance 1 – 33400
Support 2 – 32300 Resistance 2 – 33500
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (48440) / Nifty (14325)
The global cues were slightly positive in the morning and as a result, our
markets too opened marginally in the green. However, the opening lead
just disappeared within a blink of an eye to sneak below the 14500 mark.
In fact, as the day progressed, things became worst as we went on to
first breach the recent swing low of 14350.10 and then even enter a sub-
14300 territory for the first time after the Budget day’. The action was
not done yet because the real beast ‘Volatility’ was yet to show its
existence on the expiry day. At the stroke of the mid-session, market
started rebounding sharply, especially the banking space as it had
recouped all gains to trade in the green. But again the pendulum swung
in favour of the bears as Nifty once again corrected back to morning
lows and BANKINIFTY trimmed half of its recovery. Eventually, the last
series of the Financial Year ended at two month’s low tad above 14300.
After the recent consolidation, the market has finally started feeling
some heat in last couple of sessions. Fortunately we remained a bit
adamant and did not get carried away by the in between upswings. We
continue to remain cautious and the way we are placed on the charts,
further correction cannot be ruled out. As far as levels are concerned,
the next key support is visible in the zone of 14140 14000 as it
coincides with the daily ’89 EMA’ and the 78.6% retracement of the up
move from 13596.75 to record high of 15431.75. On the upside, 14440
followed by 14535 would be seen as immediate hurdles.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Here the only tricky point is the placement of the banking index. It has
already corrected in line with our expectations and has underperformed
our benchmark significantly in the recent past. This space saw massive
recovery in the latter half after precisely testing the ’89-EMA’ level of
32420. This level coincides with the previous breakout point on the
budget day. Hence, it would be really interesting to see how it behaves
going forward. If it fails to show any strength here, we should then gear
up for an extended correction. In the bull-case scenario, it’s located just
at the right junction from where it can take a U-turn. Let’s see how things
pan out because the other sectors too started participating in the
correction and the broader market which has been convincingly
outperforming, started to see some decent profit taking.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 14140 Resistance 1 – 14440
Support 2 – 14000 Resistance2 – 14535
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2021
Nifty Vs OI
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
,0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
3/9 3/12 3/17 3/19 3/23 3/25
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
View
Nifty started the session marginally in the green on
the expiry day. However, it merely turned out to be a
formality as the index corrected sharply and sneaked
below 14300. We saw a pullback move in the later half
towards 14500 but it got sold into and we again saw a
sharp fall in the last half an hour to end the expiry day
with a loss of over one and a half percent
.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of
Rs. 3384 crores. In Index Future segment, they bought
worth Rs. 960 crores with decrease in open interest.
Our markets saw decent volatility on the expiry day
but the bears dominated to end the day tad above
14300. The rollover in Nifty is at 81.67 percent which
is higher than its 3-month average while the rollover
in Bank Nifty too is higher than its average. However,
the open interest base in Nifty is low indicating light
positions in the index and hence, fresh positions in
next few sessions will dictate the market direction. The
high rollover indicates that the short positions recently
formed have been rolled over to the April series (esp.
in Bank Nifty) which is a cautious sign. For the near
term, support is placed in the range of 14100-14150
whereas resistance is seen around 14500. Traders are
advised to stay light on positions and avoid taking
undue overnight risks ahead of the long weekend
.
C
o
mme
n
t
s
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 20.61%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 14.44%
as market closed at 14324.90 levels.
The Nifty April future closed with a premium of 100.65
point against a premium of 99.10 point in last trading
session. The May series closed at a premium of 158.20
point.
The INDIA VIX increased from 22.45 to 22.69.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty increased from 0.97
to 1.13.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are IDEA, NATIONALUM, NMDC, SAIL AND UPL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
NAUKRI 953000 14.99 4402.95 -5.63
SAIL 125628000 9.72 72.25 2.74
MARUTI 2271500 5.56 6786.80 -3.78
TRENT 693100 4.25 757.95 -3.61
EICHERMOT 2309650 4.15 2580.45 -2.66
PFIZER 52750 3.43 4404.50 -1.11
JSWSTEEL 33004800 3.22 438.00 0.27
INDIGO 3410000 2.03 1663.55 -4.40
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
IDEA 329910000 -61.93 8.90 -7.11
VEDL 74660400 -47.44 222.50 -0.49
LALPATHLAB 124500 -41.13 2462.70 -0.47
NAM-INDIA 744000 -38.00 327.20 -1.99
CUMMINSIND 1533600 -28.84 855.55 -1.42
UBL 945700 -27.87 1217.00 -2.19
GODREJPROP 1474200 -27.59 1332.10 -4.06
SBILIFE 4903500 -21.54 864.10 -1.65
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.13 0.84
BANKNIFTY 0.82 0.84
RELIANCE 0.63 0.61
ICICIBANK 0.67 0.50
INFY 0.65 0.67
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
AUBANK 57.11
HINDUNILVR 32.93
NAUKRI 57.35
IOC 39.76
MARUTI 44.16
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2021
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (April Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot =
14324.90
FII Statistics for March 25, 2021
Detail Buy
Net Contracts
Open Interest
Sell
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
INDEX
FUTURES
12017.47
11057.13
960.34
106828
10944.60
(23.72)
INDEX
OPTIONS
1135301.68
1131361.04
3940.64
581874
59843.02
(49.68)
STOCK
FUTURES
27190.76
25877.64
1313.12
1041869
87120.59
(5.38)
STOCK
OPTIONS
10762.19
9640.67
1121.52
56551
4577.88
(61.31)
Total 1185272.10
1177936.48
7335.62
1787122
162486.09
(29.74)
Turnover on March 25, 2021
Instrum
ent
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures
7,57,812 71479.29 38.45
Index Options
10,01,09,314 91,77,491.29 121.64
Stock Futures
16,24,309 1,40,769.20 17.71
Stock Options
13,75,385 1,23,876.24 -5.17
Total 10,38,66,820 95,13,616.02 114.15
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14300 455.75
56.20 43.80 14356.20
Sell 14400 399.55
Buy 14300 455.75
107.45 92.55 14407.45
Sell 14500 348.30
Buy 14400 399.55
51.25 48.75 14451.25
Sell 14500 348.30
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 14300 318.55
38.20 61.80 14261.80
Sell 14200 280.35
Buy 14300 318.55
78.80 121.20 14221.20
Sell 14100 239.75
Buy 14200 280.35
40.60 59.40 14159.40
Sell 14100 239.75
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
3000,000
3500,000
13500 13600 13700 13800 13900 14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2021
Da
ily
Pivot Level
s for
Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
665
677
695
706
724
ASIANPAINT 2,344 2,373
2,421
2,450
2,498
AXISBANK
664
679
695
710
726
BAJAJ-AUTO 3,420 3,461
3,538
3,579
3,656
BAJFINANCE 4,978 5,050
5,175
5,247
5,372
BAJAJFINSV 8,799 8,928
9,089
9,218
9,379
BPCL
408
414
420
426
433
BHARTIARTL
486
497
510
521
534
BRITANNIA 3,343 3,394
3,479
3,529
3,615
CIPLA
772
780
791
799
810
COALINDIA
123
126
129
132
135
DIVISLAB 3,342 3,396
3,445
3,499
3,548
DRREDDY 4,238 4,309
4,356
4,427
4,473
EICHERMOT 2,490 2,535
2,593
2,638
2,696
GAIL
124
126
129
131
135
GRASIM 1,329 1,351
1,376
1,398
1,422
HCLTECH
936
947
961
971
985
HDFCBANK 1,424 1,444
1,470
1,489
1,515
HDFCLIFE
653
660
669
676
684
HDFC 2,404 2,437
2,464
2,498
2,525
HEROMOTOCO 2,850 2,896
2,973
3,018
3,095
HINDALCO
299
306
313
321
328
HINDUNILVR 2,172 2,205
2,263
2,296
2,354
ICICIBANK
547
559
569
581
591
IOC
88
89
92
94
96
INDUSINDBK
911
934
952
976
993
INFY 1,313 1,323
1,338
1,348
1,363
ITC
205
208
212
215
219
JSW STEEL
423
430
436
444
450
KOTAKBANK 1,715 1,739
1,769
1,793
1,823
LT 1,346 1,358
1,374
1,386
1,402
M&M
772
782
798
808
824
MARUTI 6,563 6,675
6,867
6,979
7,171
NESTLEIND 15,822
15,996
16,290
16,464
16,759
NTPC
100
102
104
105
108
ONGC
97
100
104
106
110
POWERGRID
210
213
218
221
226
RELIANCE 1,941 1,966
2,010
2,035
2,079
SBILIFE
847
855
870
879
893
SHREECEM 26,787
27,184
27,662
28,059
28,537
SBIN
338
347
354
362
369
SUNPHARMA
562
569
578
585
595
TCS 3,001 3,033
3,082
3,114
3,163
TATAMOTORS
276
281
287
292
299
TATASTEEL
672
697
714
740
756
TECHM
944
956
977
989
1,009
TITAN 1,415 1,433
1,466
1,484
1,516
ULTRACEMCO 6,461 6,564
6,739
6,842
7,017
UPL
575
585
602
612
629
WIPRO
389
394
403
408
417
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2021
*
Research Team Tel: 022 – 39357600 (Extn. 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]roking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ru[email protected]gelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bh[email protected]roking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]angelbroking.com