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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2020
Nifty Bank Outlook - (18481)
Banking space had witnessed a significant correction in last
couple of weeks as the index heavyweights corrected sharply.
However, as the markets recovered yesterday, the banking
space witnessed good momentum which led to an upmove of
over 8 percent in the index.
As mentioned above, the index heavyweights witnessed good
buying interest in yesterday's session. Certainly the index
leaders in the recent fall have corrected so sharply that they
now seem to be trading at compelling prices. The index
resembles a bullish pattern on charts and hence, we could see
further upmove towards retracement level of 19800 in the
near term. The immediate support for the index is placed
around 17700.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 17700 Resistance 1 – 19400
Support 2 – 17000 Resistance 2 – 19800
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Sensex (
28536)
/ Nifty
(
8318
)
Since Tuesday morning, markets across the globe were
experiencing a strong bounce back and clearly we were not
reacting in the similar fashion. Despite US markets posting a
colossal overnight rally, we started the day marginally in the red
yesterday, which was mainly a hangover of PM Modi’s
announcement on country lockdown for 21 days. After initial
hiccups, we finally joined hands with our global peers and a
strong buying across the board thereafter pushed Nifty
significantly higher to reclaim the 8300 mark.
In our previous article, we had mentioned how markets are
hinting towards a possible rebound and it was very much
overdue also after recent relentless fall. All markets across the
globe were deeply oversold and hence, a decent bounce back
was on cards. For the day, we were observing 8000 as a crucial
hurdle. The moment index surpassed and stayed for few minutes,
we saw strong bout of short covering thereafter to head towards
the mentioned zone of 8200 - 8400. Now market has given the
most awaited rebound, but traders should not get carried away
by this. It may extend further also, but the uncertainty with
respect to coronavirus is still looming over. Till the time it does
not subside considerably, we should avoid aggressive bets in the
market. At present, it’s advisable to take one step at a time and
momentum traders should look to book profits on a regular
basis.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
For the coming session, 8150-8000 would be seen as sacrosanct
support for the coming session; whereas on the higher side, 8450
- 8600 are the levels to watch. The highlight of yesterday’s
session was the stupendous relief rally from the banking space
which has been the weakest link of late. Let see how it moves
going ahead.
Key Levels
Support 1 – 8150 Resistance 1 – 8450
Support 2 – 8000 Resistance 2 – 8600
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2020
Nifty Vs OI
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
,0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
3/5 3/9 3/12 3/16 3/18 3/20 3/24
(`000)
Openinterest Nifty
V
iew
s
The indices witnessed a good follow up move post
opening and rallied higher throughout the session to
end with gains of over 500 points above 8300 mark
.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market segment to the
tune of Rs. 1893 crores. In index futures, the activities
were muted as they sold worth 45 crores with increase
in open interest.
FII's continued to sell in the cash segment whereas
their activity was muted in the index futures
segment. As mentioned in yesterday's report, FII's
have recently covered some of their short positions
and have created some longs too. As the global
markets witnessed relief rally, our markets too
moved higher sharply in yesterday's session. The
options activity for this expiry is muted which may
be due to high IV's. While FII index futures data
turned positive in last couple of sessions, the INDIA
VIX corrected form ts highs yesterday which too is a
sign of relief. Hence,we might see an extension of
this relief rally towards 8500-8700 mark.
Co
m
ment
s
The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 5.73%
Bank Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.55 %
as market closed at 8317.85 levels.
The Nifty March future closed with a premium of 44.35
points against a premium of 48.85 points in last trading
session. The April series closed at a premium of 88.6
points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 83.61 to 77.62.
At the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased
from 1.09 to 1.22.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are PVR, MINDTREE, IDEA, PAGEIND and
INFRATEL.
OI Gainers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
APOLLOHOSP 893500 29.31 1183.50 1.75
ACC 2356400 24.55 918.20 -2.77
RAMCOCEM 652000 14.63 502.65 5.29
CHOLAFIN 3430000 9.76 157.85 9.85
DLF 34719300 8.72 123.80 2.73
IBULHSGFIN 10594800 7.19 95.05 3.26
MUTHOOTFIN 2893500 6.69 600.75 16.42
UJJIVAN 3034500 5.37 159.55 12.67
OI Losers
SCRIP OI
OI
CHG. (%)
PRICE
PRICE
CHG. (%)
OIL 6865980 -23.16 76.45 2.66
BEL 20940000 -22.50 62.70 7.16
JUBLFOOD 2094000 -18.73 1347.10 4.26
APOLLOTYRE 5514000 -16.72 80.85 2.16
CUMMINSIND 684000 -15.93 369.75 -5.85
ADANIPORTS 32205000 -15.04 255.60 9.76
IGL 4067250 -14.16 343.15 6.55
INFRATEL 6800000 -13.33 147.50 4.84
Put-Call Ratio
SCRIP PCR-OI PCR-VOL
NIFTY 1.22 0.67
BANKNIFTY 0.83 0.46
RELIANCE 0.46 0.55
ICICIBANK 0.41 0.47
INFY 0.52 0.64
Historical Volatility
SCRIP HV
ICICIPRULI 178.46
INDIGO 93.29
HDFCBANK 101.83
MUTHOOTFIN 143.69
RELIANCE 128.39
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2020
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Spot
=
8317.85
FII Statistics for March 25, 2020
Detail Buy Sell Net
Open Interest
Contracts
Value
(in Cr.)
Change
(%)
INDEX
FUTURES
5726.67
5771.94
(45.27) 231760
13317.93
3.82
INDEX
OPTIONS
100642.15
100062.69
579.46
986983
58735.87
3.62
STOCK
FUTURES
26911.20
26364.11
547.09
1389962
62181.04
(2.93)
STOCK
OPTIONS
742.34
683.57
58.77
70882
3137.98
(4.78)
Total 134022.36
132882.31
1140.05
2679587
137372.82
(0.10)
Turnover on March 25, 2020
Instrument
No. of
Contracts
Turnover
( in Cr. )
Change
(%)
Index Futures 6,96,367 34786.13 -17.80
Index Options 1,09,61,792
5,57,471.62 34.50
Stock Futures 17,29,155 72269.74 -2.07
Stock Options 3,37,109 16949.50 -16.40
Total 1,37,24,423
6,81,476.99 23.71
Bull-Call Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8300 225.05
57.35 42.65 8357.35
Sell 8400 167.70
Buy 8300 225.05
102.25 97.75 8402.25
Sell 8500 122.80
Buy 8400 167.70
44.90 55.10 8444.90
Sell 8500 122.80
Bear-Put Spreads
Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP
Buy 8300 168.05
37.20 62.80 8262.80
Sell 8200 130.85
Buy 8300 168.05
70.20 129.80 8229.80
Sell 8100 97.85
Buy 8200 130.85
33.00 67.00 8167.00
Sell 8100 97.85
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
,0
500,000
1000,000
1500,000
2000,000
2500,000
7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000
Call Put
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2020
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
204
230
248
274
292
ASIANPAINT 1,389 1,491
1,548
1,650
1,708
AXISBANK
248
287
326
365
403
BAJAJ-AUTO 1,812 1,879
1,934
2,002
2,057
BAJFINANCE 2,262 2,424
2,562
2,724
2,862
BAJAJFINSV 4,197 4,514
4,717
5,034
5,237
BPCL
243
259
268
283
292
BHARTIARTL
392
410
424
443
457
INFRATEL
130
139
145
154
161
BRITANNIA 2,232 2,342
2,427
2,536
2,621
CIPLA
361
369
382
390
403
COALINDIA
120
122
126
128
131
DRREDDY 2,736 2,829
2,889
2,982
3,042
EICHERMOT 13,246
13,881
14,341
14,976
15,436
GAIL
71
73
76
78
81
GRASIM
358
405
432
478
505
HCLTECH
398
428
448
478
498
HDFCBANK
714
786
826
898
939
HDFC 1,413 1,530
1,593
1,709
1,772
HEROMOTOCO
1,467
1,567
1,625
1,726
1,784
HINDALCO
84
89
93
98
102
HINDUNILVR 1,939 2,014
2,076
2,151
2,214
ICICIBANK
258
288
311
340
363
IOC
75
76
79
80
83
INDUSINDBK
259
280
302
323
345
INFY
533
570
602
639
672
ITC
133
140
146
153
159
JSW STEEL
137
144
150
158
164
KOTAKBANK 1,047 1,169
1,246
1,368
1,445
LT
620
693
734
807
848
M&M
228
253
271
296
313
MARUTI 3,976 4,491
4,825
5,340
5,674
NESTLEIND 12,201
13,323
13,921
15,043
15,641
NTPC
73
77
79
82
84
ONGC
59
60
62
63
65
POWERGRID
143
147
152
155
160
RELIANCE
877
980
1,066
1,168
1,254
SBIN 15,916
16,677
17,312
18,073
18,708
SUNPHARMA
168
179
187
198
206
TCS
321
335
343
356
364
TATAMOTORS 1,617 1,684
1,747
1,814
1,877
TATASTEEL
65
68
70
72
74
TECHM
255
271
283
299
311
TITAN
490
508
526
544
561
ULTRACEMCO
742
811
854
924
967
UPL 2,763 2,996
3,143
3,376
3,523
VEDANTA
233
263
282
312
331
WIPRO
61
63
64
65
67
YESBANK
160
167
178
185
195
ZEEL
107
116
123
132
139
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Technical & Derivatives Report
March 26, 2020
*
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