Technical & Derivatives Report
February 26, 2018
Sensex (34142) / Nifty (10491)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
It was a week of consolidation for our markets as we saw a
fragile start on Monday followed by some consolidation for three
days and then a good pull back move to conclude at the highest
point of the week. The tail end rally was mainly propelled by the
heavyweight banking conglomerates along with the beaten down
Midcap index.
Going by last few days’ price action, 10340 - 10300 seems to
have earned great respect from the short sellers and due to weak
attempts to sneak through did not have any conviction at all.
Hence, going ahead, we may see this consolidation or breather
getting extended for few days. On the higher side, 10500 -
10620 would be seen as immediate boundaries for the coming
week. Any sustainable move beyond this would result into a
decent relief rally in the market. However, the broader picture
would still remain the same as we expect the selling to
recommence at higher levels. If we have to take a directional bet,
we would certainly stick to our cautious stance considering the
‘Bearish Engulfing’ pattern on weekly chart along with the ‘RSI-
Smoothened’ (daily) slipping below the 30 mark. This indicates a
probable correction towards 10200 and then to test the ‘200-day
SMA’ placed around 10090 once the corrective move resumes.
At present, the near term strategy would be to follow stock centric
approach if index manages to give a decent relief rally and then
use such rebounds to create fresh shorts at higher levels. This
week’s weakening in Indian Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar
was clearly an alarming sign for our market. So, one should keep
a close eye on this development as well along with US markets.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 10430
Resistance 1 - 10540
Support 2 - 10340
Resistance 2 - 10620
Nifty Bank Outlook - (25303)
Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart
Along with the broader markets, the Nifty Bank index too rallied
in Friday's trading session and ended the day with gains of 1.39
percent. The '200 SMA' on the daily chart which we were
mentioning about since last few days finally acted as a support
and the index witnessed the much-awaited pullback rally. A
corrective move at the start of the week and a pullback at the end
have resulted in formation of a 'Dragonfly Doji' candlestick
pattern on the weekly chart of the Nifty Bank index. This pattern
post a corrective move is a sign of relief for the bulls and hence,
the index could retrace the recent correction. Last week's low
around 24780 now becomes a crucial support for the index
whereas a follow up move at the start of this week could lead the
index higher towards the resistances of 25460 and then 25800.
Key Levels
Support 1 - 24960
Resistance 1 - 25460
Support 2 - 24780
Resistance 2 - 25600
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 26, 2018
Comments
Nifty Vs OI
The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 7.97%
BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 5.67%
as market closed at 10491.05 levels.
The Nifty February future closed with a premium of
13.50 points against a premium of 6.40 points in last
trading session. The March series closed at a premium of
46.30 points.
The INDIA VIX has decreased from 14.83 to 14.20. At
the same time, the PCR-OI of Nifty has increased from
1.41 to 1.43 level.
Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost
of carry are GMRINFRA, HDIL, DABUR, NCC and IFCI.
Views
FIIs continued selling in cash market segment to the tune
of Rs. 486 crores. While, they were net sellers in index
OI Gainers
futures of Rs. 694 crores with rise in open interest,
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
indicating formation of fresh short positions in previous
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
trading session.
HEXAWARE
4773000
31.05
345.50
-1.82
In index options front, they bought significantly of
MINDTREE
2028000
22.73
808.25
9.12
Rs. 4651 crores with rise in open interest. In call options,
FORTIS
59885000
21.19
161.10
10.12
we saw fresh build-up in 10500-10900 strikes; followed
JPASSOCIAT
255578000
19.02
19.30
18.04
by unwinding in 10400 and 11000 call option. On the
CUMMINSIND
486000
18.08
823.35
0.78
flip side, we saw huge build-up in 10300 and 10400 put
IDBI
54770000
14.53
77.70
4.86
strikes; while, 9900-1100 and 10500 strikes also added
BEL
25928100
14.52
151.90
3.65
some fresh positions. Now, maximum open interest
SIEMENS
826000
13.85
1181.05
-1.02
concentration for March series is placed at 10700 call
and 10000 put options.
February series concluded with biggest single series fall
OI Losers
after November 2016. As far as index futures activity is
OI
PRICE
SCRIP
OI
PRICE
concerned, we witnessed decent profit booking followed
CHG. (%)
CHG. (%)
by some fresh short formation. The rollover (62.34%) in
TV18BRDCST
67286000
-2.82
58.45
4.10
Nifty is on the lower side in terms of percentage as well
POWERGRID
26076000
-2.76
194.05
2.00
as OI. We believe majority of long positions which were
NATIONALUM
51768000
-2.40
68.20
4.92
rolled to February series have been lightened up.
RBLBANK
4771000
-2.33
490.20
4.33
Stronger hands too tuned bearish as they sold equities
KPIT
13261500
-2.29
207.55
3.13
worth Rs. 14360 crores. They also formed massive shorts
RELINFRA
10143900
-2.23
457.45
3.98
in index futures and exited decent amount of their longs
SUZLON
362530000
-1.93
13.10
4.38
in the same segment. Considering the above data points,
DRREDDY
4134500
-1.64
2181.85
2.75
we would advise traders avoiding any kind of bottom
fishing as we may see further pain going ahead
Put-Call Ratio
Historical Volatility
SCRIP
PCR-OI
PCR-VOL
SCRIP
HV
NIFTY
1.43
0.91
COALINDIA
48.25
BANKNIFTY
1.24
0.79
JPASSOCIAT
111.59
SUNPHARMA
0.65
0.49
KSCL
53.74
PNB
0.81
0.70
MINDTREE
63.88
FORTIS
0.85
0.60
TVSMOTOR
37.91
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 26, 2018
FII Statistics for February 23, 2018
Turnover on February 23, 2018
Open Interest
No. of
Turnover
Change
Detail
Buy
Sell
Net
Instrument
Value
Change
Contracts
( in Cr. )
(%)
Contracts
(in Cr.)
(%)
INDEX
INDEX
1730.69
2425.13
(694.44)
148462
12394.38
6.17
257061
22115.98
-49.60
FUTURES
FUTURES
INDEX
INDEX
51021.64
46370.80
4650.84
646627
52493.00
12.23
3369602
304082.99
-73.81
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
STOCK
9292.52
8000.17
1292.35
996889
70936.64
1.36
STOCK
FUTURES
763691
54337.50
-63.18
FUTURES
STOCK
STOCK
4751.75
4684.45
67.30
27814
1951.68
1381.04
411840
29798.13
-42.31
OPTIONS
OPTIONS
Total
66796.61
61480.56
5316.05
1819792
137775.69
6.96
TOTAL
4802194
410334.60
-70.77
Nifty Spot = 10491.05
Lot Size = 75
Bull-Call Spreads
Bear-Put Spreads
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Action
Strike
Price
Risk
Reward
BEP
Buy
10500
160.95
Buy
10500
157.20
53.55
46.45
10553.55
35.70
64.30
10464.30
Sell
10600
107.40
Sell
10400
121.50
Buy
10500
160.95
Buy
10500
157.20
94.00
106.00
10594.00
65.30
134.70
10434.70
Sell
10700
66.95
Sell
10300
91.90
Buy
10600
107.40
Buy
10400
121.50
40.45
59.55
10640.45
29.60
70.40
10370.40
Sell
10700
66.95
Sell
10300
91.90
Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation.
Nifty Put-Call Analysis
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 26, 2018
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents
Scrips
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
ADANIPORTS
399
403
406
410
413
AMBUJACEM
253
257
259
263
266
ASIANPAINT
1,088
1,095
1,106
1,113
1,124
AUROPHARMA
577
589
601
613
625
AXISBANK
520
529
534
542
547
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,937
2,962
2,985
3,010
3,033
BAJFINANCE
1,589
1,611
1,625
1,647
1,660
BPCL
418
424
429
434
439
BHARTIARTL
413
419
424
430
435
INFRATEL
324
332
338
347
353
BOSCHLTD
18,706
18,813
18,917
19,025
19,129
CIPLA
582
589
597
604
612
COALINDIA
306
308
311
314
317
DRREDDY
2,112
2,140
2,162
2,190
2,212
EICHERMOT
26,144
26,434
26,790
27,081
27,437
GAIL
446
452
459
465
472
HCLTECH
930
943
955
968
980
HDFCBANK
1,837
1,859
1,872
1,893
1,906
HDFC
1,810
1,817
1,822
1,829
1,834
HEROMOTOCO
3,433
3,464
3,486
3,517
3,539
HINDALCO
237
242
245
249
252
HINDPETRO
378
382
384
389
391
HINDUNILVR
1,314
1,318
1,325
1,330
1,336
IBULHSGFIN
1,261
1,272
1,283
1,294
1,305
ICICIBANK
316
319
322
325
327
IOC
360
364
367
371
374
INDUSINDBK
1,608
1,626
1,637
1,655
1,666
INFY
1,137
1,146
1,156
1,166
1,175
ITC
264
267
268
271
272
KOTAKBANK
1,068
1,074
1,079
1,085
1,090
LT
1,271
1,286
1,296
1,311
1,320
LUPIN
797
802
808
814
820
M&M
709
714
719
724
729
MARUTI
8,614
8,656
8,698
8,740
8,782
NTPC
160
162
163
165
166
ONGC
185
187
189
192
193
POWERGRID
189
191
192
195
196
RELIANCE
916
925
932
941
947
SBIN
271
273
275
278
280
SUNPHARMA
534
552
564
581
593
TCS
2,955
3,016
3,052
3,113
3,149
TATAMOTORS
355
358
361
364
367
TATASTEEL
620
649
668
696
715
TECHM
597
609
617
629
637
ULTRACEMCO
4,034
4,075
4,105
4,146
4,175
UPL
670
685
694
709
718
VEDANTA
322
330
335
343
349
WIPRO
291
293
294
297
298
YESBANK
312
318
322
327
332
ZEEL
563
566
570
574
578
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Technical & Derivatives Report
February 26, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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